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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Just now, Cwcwxtracker said:

New member here hello guys and gals. Loving tracking this storm. Live in Manchester, NH and I'm hopeful for a pounding from this thing, and if a snowhole doesn't move overhead like some models are hinting at, looks like I could get what I am looking for. We shall see. 

Welcome.....I think the NAM had a shit streak over you but it could change......lots of new guys here it seems....

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GFS shows us how Cape Cod remains all snow, 10:1 ratios with 1.50" of QPF equals 15" for CHH, latest 00z GFS run.  I seriously think the deformation band and dry slot will come further southeast as we get closer to the onset.  OES contribution and dry slot issues in hand, Cape Cod could start around 5pm EST later this evening, and end around midnight Friday morning!  There is a real chance the comma head could bring some wild conditions.  If the region does not dry slot, and honestly with a surface track across the BM and even between the BM and ACK I would not expect a changeover, but the H7 and H85 low tracks are a bit concerning moving overhead.  There could be a period of sleet.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS shows us how Cape Cod remains all snow, 10:1 ratios with 1.50" of QPF equals 15" for CHH, latest 00z GFS run.  I seriously think the deformation band and dry slot will come further southeast as we get closer to the onset.  OES contribution and dry slot issues in hand, Cape Cod could start around 5pm EST later this evening, and end around midnight Friday morning!  There is a real chance the comma head could bring some wild conditions.  If the region does not dry slot, and honestly with a surface track across the BM and even between the BM and ACK I would not expect a changeover, but the H7 and H85 low tracks are a bit concerning moving overhead.  There could be a period of sleet.

You aren't remaining all snow.

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I personally think it'll be ok, especially if she's more inland. If we were looking at a more robust low and hence tighter gradient, I might feel a little differently. Keep in mind the whole COVID aspect too. I wouldn't move her unless I absolutely had to, but that's me. 

That’s the issue is covid. Any other time I’ve forced her to stay with us...

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Blech on the ukie. Starting to look like mesos vs globals up here.

I think for you (and me) it all hinges on the strength of that temperature gradient (and hence the strength of the frontogenesis) around 600 mb. As well as how long it takes for those flakes to cut through the very dry air in place. If the mid level low opens up or starts to occlude and as a result doesn’t allow for that strong mid level ascent, then we’re kinda porked.

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19 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS shows us how Cape Cod remains all snow, 10:1 ratios with 1.50" of QPF equals 15" for CHH, latest 00z GFS run.  I seriously think the deformation band and dry slot will come further southeast as we get closer to the onset.  OES contribution and dry slot issues in hand, Cape Cod could start around 5pm EST later this evening, and end around midnight Friday morning!  There is a real chance the comma head could bring some wild conditions.  If the region does not dry slot, and honestly with a surface track across the BM and even between the BM and ACK I would not expect a changeover, but the H7 and H85 low tracks are a bit concerning moving overhead.  There could be a period of sleet.

There will definitely be some oes atop the rain, and we will get some snow at the beginning.  If this thing was some deep wound up cyclone, I'd agree with you, but it isn't.  Its an unremarkable system with a ton of moisture and a nice setup and cold enough air elsewhere. It's also moving too fast.

 

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