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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Just now, SnowGiant611 said:

The model spreads are very interesting, but it does seem like we have pretty solid trends.  Looks like the forecast of the hard cutoff on the northern periphery was possibly incorrect, at least for CNE.  The best mid-level forcing is still TBD, but it remains to be seen if this storm will over-perform or not.  I just don’t feel we can squeeze this much QPF in a progressive flow with little or no upstream blocking when the SLP barely breaks 1000mb?

NAM was 991mb’s.

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3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

GFS looks like it caved and came north to me. It’s not nearly as strong either. Canadian also looks less exciting than others. I’m not overly concerned though. Still a solid moderate storm at worst 

It’s in the same spot, and same strength really. It’s drops over a foot in western ct. Cant say I see any issues.

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'm looking for reasons why this might fail IMBY but can't seem to find any. Perhaps a dry slot or coastal front from hell would screw things up, but I don't see that reducing my total to less than maybe 8".

In Cumberland? You're golden there.  That is usually jackpot #2 in RI.  I'm in the more worrisome area as usual - the bay is never my friend in snow events.

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6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

GFS looks like it caved and came north to me. It’s not nearly as strong either. Canadian also looks less exciting than others. I’m not overly concerned though. Still a solid moderate storm at worst 

It's still taking the sharp right turn, only further north than yesterday and previously.

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