IowaStorm05 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS looks like it caved and came north to me. It’s not nearly as strong either. Canadian also looks less exciting than others. I’m not overly concerned though. Still a solid moderate storm at worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:43 AM, Arnold214 said: That pork pipe there near MHT on several models that it's actually showing up on the NBM. That area caught between 2 forcing mechanisms. Expand It's been slowly inching N of me, so I'm trying to fend off some guarded optimism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:45 AM, SnowGiant611 said: The model spreads are very interesting, but it does seem like we have pretty solid trends. Looks like the forecast of the hard cutoff on the northern periphery was possibly incorrect, at least for CNE. The best mid-level forcing is still TBD, but it remains to be seen if this storm will over-perform or not. I just don’t feel we can squeeze this much QPF in a progressive flow with little or no upstream blocking when the SLP barely breaks 1000mb? Expand NAM was 991mb’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm looking for reasons why this might fail IMBY but can't seem to find any. Perhaps a dry slot or coastal front from hell would screw things up, but I don't see that reducing my total to less than maybe 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:45 AM, Colonel Badger said: What’s the deal with the snow hole over MHT in every model? Expand Area in between forcing mechanisms. ML fronto to the left of us, conveyor belts to the right, here we are stuck in the middle with subby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:43 AM, Arnold214 said: That pork pipe there near MHT on several models that it's actually showing up on the NBM. That area caught between 2 forcing mechanisms. Expand Ha, Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:46 AM, IowaStorm05 said: GFS looks like it caved and came north to me. It’s not nearly as strong either. Canadian also looks less exciting than others. I’m not overly concerned though. Still a solid moderate storm at worst Expand It’s in the same spot, and same strength really. It’s drops over a foot in western ct. Cant say I see any issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:47 AM, Fozz said: I'm looking for reasons why this might fail IMBY but can't seem to find any. Perhaps a dry slot or coastal front from hell would screw things up, but I don't see that reducing my total to less than maybe 8". Expand In Cumberland? You're golden there. That is usually jackpot #2 in RI. I'm in the more worrisome area as usual - the bay is never my friend in snow events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Gfs is fairly widespread 8-12” or so. Probably a chance for more nrn MA and srn NH with some Deffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I strongly approve of the 700mb low track on the GFS. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:51 AM, powderfreak said: GFS Expand Tolland County lowest in SNE? Ouch. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:51 AM, powderfreak said: GFS Expand Not Mt Tolland approved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 gfs will barf on qpf as usual but the h7 track is perfect. Let’s bring this home ladies and gents. night night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:46 AM, IowaStorm05 said: GFS looks like it caved and came north to me. It’s not nearly as strong either. Canadian also looks less exciting than others. I’m not overly concerned though. Still a solid moderate storm at worst Expand It's still taking the sharp right turn, only further north than yesterday and previously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS is less mixing than the 18z run and every run today! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:52 AM, CT Rain said: Tolland County lowest in SNE? Ouch. Expand That's at least 51% in Windham County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS still pedestrian up here...don’t really care as long as the euro gets warning criteria up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:53 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is less mixing than the 18z run and every run today! Expand I thought it was a step back up north. Could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:54 AM, JC-CT said: I thought it was a step back up north. Could be wrong. Expand GFS was right on the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:54 AM, dendrite said: GFS still pedestrian up here...don’t really care as long as the euro gets warning criteria up here. Expand It's not the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:54 AM, dendrite said: GFS still pedestrian up here...don’t really care as long as the euro gets warning criteria up here. Expand Been stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:36 AM, 78Blizzard said: Jerry- For laughs and giggles. Expand Always a favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 catching up, looks like most models have remained steady if not ramped up a bit.. looking good for 12+ regionwide.. gonna be a fun night tracking.. while I love daytime storms, I always enjoy the post from folks at 3 am during a good storm.. I probably will be up most of the night wed/thur drinking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:55 AM, dryslot said: Been stubborn. Expand H7 low track looks pretty good. It’s just meh with the banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:58 AM, weathafella said: Always a favorite! Expand While not to that extent, most of the models tonight have the Boston general area in a jack, however you want to interpret "jack". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Nuanced stretching still hinted and in order to do that it robs from vertical motion ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 - 18 Philly - NYC on a very underrated model. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/16/2020 at 3:24 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Also I think Blizzard conditions will be rampant from the coastal front westward by about 50 to 75 miles inland! Expand It won't be, sorry baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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