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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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One factor we have to continue to watch on the coastline is the potential for dynamic cooling if the NAM and mesomodels are correct.  They cool the 850mv to 925mb temps rapidly as the low begins to move eastward south of Long Island.  We should stay all snow even if they winds change to the northeast and stay that way, unless they change to the east or southeast, we should stay snow.

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

One factor we have to continue to watch on the coastline is the potential for dynamic cooling if the NAM and mesomodels are correct.  They cool the 850mv to 925mb temps rapidly as the low begins to move eastward south of Long Island.  We should stay all snow even if they winds change to the northeast and stay that way, unless they change to the east or southeast, we should stay snow.

Those models showed the same thing in that storm that gave Worcester 9", but we stayed rain throughout until a coating at the very end.

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Looking at JUST how bad this stretch has been, and Why I need a big total so bad:

 

Since the Epic Eeeeepic storm I missed and almost booked a flight and left the Florida Keys for in March 2018 (which would have caused a break up and I didn’t care, and should have), I also last year missed the December 11” as I was in Ukraine (searching for Hunter Biden and playing accordion concerts), means the ONLY 10” storm I’ve seen in 33 Months since the 14.25" storm in January 2018, was the sole Jackpot of my Life in March 2019 which Will reneges cause I called him all night in elation.  

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The model spreads are very interesting, but it does seem like we have pretty solid trends.  Looks like the forecast of the hard cutoff on the northern periphery was possibly incorrect, at least for CNE.  The best mid-level forcing is still TBD, but it remains to be seen if this storm will over-perform or not.  I just don’t feel we can squeeze this much QPF in a progressive flow with little or no upstream blocking when the SLP barely breaks 1000mb?

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