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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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It may in fact be noise ... because at this point, relative to what this thing has to work with, it’s got nowhere else to go but less ... I mean it’s maxing out what it has to work with already so anything else has got to deviate that direction. 
 

I don’t see how we can ask this system squeeze out more based on what she’s got going in

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may in fact be noise ... because at this point, relative to what this thing has to work with, it’s got nowhere else to go but less ... I mean it’s maxing out what it has to work with already so anything else has got to deviate that direction. 
 

I don’t see how we can ask this system squeeze out more based on what she’s got going in

Yea. It’s just a matter of where she squeezes it and THAT is what we are micro analyzing for...

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3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Why is it no one ever answers my questions on here, but will post something funny about me.  I guess that's what I get for being an Accordion Playing Weenie.  

It’s the 3km NAM.  I don’t put much stock it what it shows for a winter storm.  I think it’s better suited to summer convection.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s the 3km NAM.  I don’t put much stock it what it shows for a winter storm.  I think it’s better suited to summer convection.

Yeah Cory...3k often really jacks up coastals probably due to latent heat feedback on convection pumping heights up. 

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3 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

Here in coastal SW CT I feel like I’m in a decent place considering what’s being shown on the models but also worried about both subsidence and possibly a brief period of mixing. Thinking we end up with about a foot here in Fairfield..

Sounds about right. Should be a good one even if the coast mixes briefly or slots. 

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