JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Still going It's quite deceiving to post those two images and imply they are from the same time frame 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hard to see this not being the season's best event -- gets almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: what is this map? 700mb level vertical velocity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I like the cross sections on TT with the fronto stuff. Pretty classic to see the good fronto and lift into DGZ just NW of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like how it doesn’t blow it’s load over PA and spreads it across SNE instead. Next run will be different so just enjoy it for a few, a couple yanks and 45 spanks, and we’re onto the next. Yes, this is what I was referring to. 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can work with this. Note the 18" totals extending NE into se MA now that the mid levels hold on longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, RDRY said: Hard to see this not being the season's best event -- gets almost everyone. Certainly so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Can you get the previous flight? They’d probably have to turn that one around quickly and less likely to cancel. ORD-BOS? That's exactly what I did last year when I returned from Thanksgiving just in time for the early December storm. Rescheduled for an earlier flight, and arrived just as the storm was getting good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Wouldn't be able to swing it with work. Even though they encourage my "extracurricular activities," too short notice. Man, after everything you've had to go through this year hope this works out for you. We all have your back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'll Take the 3k for $100 Alex. That northern band is tied nicely to warm front at 600mb. Strongly sloped ascent in the mid levels is good for the soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Someone needs to photoshop the Ranger hat and put the ‘NAM’ there instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: No one from TWC going to Boston from what they tweeted out. cantore going to Allentown He always looks for the area with the greatest chance of thunder snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 When the Narcan has 12-18” we smile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Arnold214 said: That northern band is tied nicely to warm front at 600mb. Strongly sloped ascent in the mid levels is good for the soul. It gives me goosebumps.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 That fronto site is yesterday 0z still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: It gives me goosebumps.......... The kooch will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Man, that froto band on the 12 GEM is insanity....20--30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Reggie being stubborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Reggie looks a little more amped from 18z. Just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can you get the previous flight? They’d probably have to turn that one around quickly and less likely to cancel. ORD-BOS? This is really the only good option. The incoming flight is from Charlotte and is the only other flight for this aircraft of the day, so hoping for minimal delays. Gotta hope the weather gods are smiling down on me and pity my poor NE Illinois blood for 3 years of horrendous winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That fronto site is yesterday 0z still. it has the 18z runs today. its bassackwords. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Arnold214 said: The kooch will do that. That is would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can work with this. Note the 18" totals extending NE into se MA now that the mid levels hold on longer.. I think those clowns are the best. It’s like a mix between 10:1 and kuchie or something. It did fairly well the marginal event the other weekend, iirc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It looks a little slower than 18z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'll take the Reggie too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 51 minutes ago, Greg said: AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 645 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Tonight and Wednesday are quiet and cold. A coastal storm will bring heavy snow, strong winds, and minor coastal flooding to the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds in for late in the workweek into the weekend. Colder than average temperatures for late in the week begin to moderate by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 645 PM update... Diminishing north winds tonight as high pres builds to the north. Just some high clouds overspreading SNE this evening but clouds are thin and shouldn`t have much impact on low temps tonight. Lows ranging from the single numbers north central and west MA to teens elsewhere, except 20s outer Cape and ACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights * A significant winter storm capable of producing heavy snowfall late Wed into Thu afternoon across our region is expected. * The potential exists for at least part of our area to receive over a foot of snow. However, the overall pattern is progressive, which means it is hard-pressed to see snowfall accumulations much over 12 inches. * If the low pressure tracks a little further north, areas towards the south coast and the Cape/Islands will have mixing issues, which will cut down on the snow totals. * The biggest concern with the system will be heavy snowfall rates and given the antecedent cold air mass, snow will accumulate immediately on all surfaces upon onset. A significant winter storm capable of heavy snowfall across much of the region is becoming more likely, with abundant southern stream moisture and antecedent cold air in play for potential significant, plowable snowfall. Mesowest obs show widespread dew points in the single digits with a few spots even below zero, indicative of a fresh injection of cold, dry air mass. The exceptions are the Cape and Islands and areas towards the MA/RI immediate South Coast, where it will mix with and change over to rain. Some uncertainty still remains, however, on the northern edge of heavy snowfall. The 12z guidance has shown a northward trend with the heavy precipitation, which is why we have expanded Winter Storm headlines to include our western and northern zones. Looking at the 12z suite of guidance including the HREF, the system is forecast to remain fairly progressive as the H5 low crosses from NJ into SNE. There are some hints that the H5 low could weaken a little slower between 12z and 18z, but very little to suggest bumping up the current forecast too much. Also, the track of the H5 low is a little further north and its track along the MA/RI south coast would suggest that areas towards and along the MA/RI south coast, including the Cape & Islands will mix likely with and change to rain after an initial thump, which will cut down on snow totals. This also means that areas further N&W will also come into play for heavier snow accumulations, which is why we expanded the Winter Storm Watches to our entire CWA with the morning update. A potential red flag against some of the eye-popping totals shown by deterministic guidance is the relative lack of deepening of the secondary low. Ensemble members keep the low in the high 990s or low 1000s, which indicates a lack of deepening or cyclogenesis required for the system to have more staying power and reduce the potential for totals much higher than a foot at this time. Also, this reduces the chance for blizzard conditions though it will still be quite windy with the pressure gradient thanks to the 1035 mb high to our north. Overall, given the progressive pattern and the deamplifying H5 shortwave, we are inclined to go with a widespread 8-12 inches for our CWA with lesser amounts towards the S Coast. Could some locations get more than a foot? Absolutely, but it is hard pressed to see amounts over 15 inches at this time. The H5 upper low that will play a critical role in the Nor`easter has shown up the water vapor satellite imagery over the Texas Panhandle. A cursory glance seems to suggest that the GFS and NAM have initialized rather well. A closer look suggests that the NAM may have initialized the ridge over the Northern Rockies a little too much. These are very fine margins and subtle differences, but could have an outsized role downstream and storm impacts on our area. Overall, we are becoming more confident of a significant, but not blockbuster winter storm. Widespread accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are forecast, with lesser amounts towards the MA/RI south coast and the Cape and Islands, where it is expected to mix with and change over to rain after the initial thump of snow. They barely ever shut down. She will get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can work with this. Note the 18" totals extending NE into se MA now that the mid levels hold on longer.. That depiction is 20” here...We Approve this message. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Can someone explain why the 3K NAM is SOOOOO Far NW from all else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think those clowns are the best. It’s like a mix between 10:1 and kuchie or something. It did fairly well the marginal event the other weekend, iirc? Narcan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think those clowns are the best. It’s like a mix between 10:1 and kuchie or something. It did fairly well the marginal event the other weekend, iirc? Yes, it just was a bit too light in NE CT hills, but other than that...very good. GEM for Mark in Bow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Narcan When the Narcan maps drop 1-2', its time to succumb to your demons. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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