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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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I don't see a problem with Harvey Leonard's rendition here -

what am I missing? 

As far as "pope" - you know ..I can see his misgivings on this ...lord knows I've had them - particularly early on.. But, my personal notions on this changed, and I described those pretty clearly already earlier in the day - not that anyone asked.. lol.  But seriously, I don't think anyone should be derided for an outlook before anything has actually taken place.

I will say though ..from where I am sitting, the 300 mb "INCREASING" jet flow exiting E away from CNE on the polarward side of a SW 500 mb 100 kt flow that is rising up and over a nascent polar air mass 1.5 deg S of that latitude over SNE... is not the deterministic models overdoing it and I disagree with Taunton or whomever wrote that ... It is likely why/where that RGEM's incredible chart topping frontogenic band is coming from - CSI wedgie from hell and don't be surprised at 4 or even 5" per hour rate somewhere and some lightning blinks...in the vicinity/under that region. That is clockwise rotation of sick, sick difluence pulling up an already conditionally unstable theta-e rich source ...

It's a snow machine...sorry - but I'm looking right at these synoptic parameters and it is what it is friends -

If it doesn't happen..it doesn't happen.. but maybe afterward we can prove these features didn't set up - because if they do... I don't see how an excessive band won't materialize...

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3 hours ago, DomNH said:

I hope we ticky tick south to get into the better H7 fronto banding. We're not getting into the WCB. As things stand I'm going 4-8'' here. Hope to squeak out a warning event but I can see a scenario where we just subsidence struggle our way to 4-5'' of dense sand.

Let's just start at 2-4" and be excited with 6"?

15 minutes ago, DFRI said:

Some are predicting less.

Pete Bouchard snow map.jpg

 

Pete B says screw Ray's subsidence zone!

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Hello active December...verbatim it misses, but gotta love the potential gfs showing for Christmas Day or day or 2 later....Hell of a ridge out west, if you space out the waves properly that’s dynamite. I’m headed to Williamsport pa btw. Good luck up there this go around. Philly will get one this year

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Recon flying in the gulf for our storm.. that data should be put into tonight's models maybe we can get a better idea by then..

wait what ?

why the Gulf - you do mean the Gulf Of Mexico?  

not sure I understand that as a sonde gap - ... hm, was there discussion offered as to why -

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4 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:
13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
Recon flying in the gulf for our storm.. that data should be put into tonight's models maybe we can get a better idea by then..

Thats where the juice is, makes sense to sample it although the budget must be shot after the season we had

yeah... yet the assimilation(s) are supposed to be sufficient between Japan and California...  ..I don't know, I think Satellite should electro mag resonance can see the moisture content as sufficiently packed layers for a region as small as the Gulf when we're above the 95% tile out in the Pacific - doesn't seem to add up as explanation but fug it -

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