ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wizard021 said: Icon south ! Only a matter of time until the GFS scores the coup from yesterday! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I want a Mar 2019 blob moving over my fanny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Outside of Connecticut I don’t think any jackpots zones will be determined until Wednesday night. The only certainty with the models is that somewhere in SNE there will be some disappointed weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 who's getting dry slotted in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GYX watches up to CNH and over to PWM, but just short of LEW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only a matter of time until the GFS scores the coup from yesterday! The NAM will come south by another 25 miles and that is exactly what everyone will be saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, subdude said: who's getting dry slotted in this? TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Only a matter of time until the GFS scores the coup from yesterday! Only 50 more runs at this rate. Never bought into that supressed 2016 scenario. GFS was OTL. But the v16 held steady the whole time, roughly. Looked nothing like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, JC-CT said: RPM, and HRRR are bad models. I never use them , unless 12 hours out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only a matter of time until the GFS scores the coup from yesterday! Now hoping it goes south a bit looks like we exhaust here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wizard021 said: RPM, and HRRR are bad models. I never use them , unless 12 hours out. Thank you. Do you happen to know how much snow Philly will be getting? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm not seeing anything on any model indicating widespread amounts higher than maybe 15" for the most aggressive runs Agree, certainly not calling for #1 all time at BOS (at the time) but that was another weak ass lp with a big high to the north. I know the setups aren't precisely the same, but saying totals are limited to 8-12" just because it's high 990s instead of mid 980s raised an eyebrow for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I've been curious to know what NWS model blends are used and how there weighted on Pivotal. Pivotal doesn't do any weighting. Snowfall is readily available by the NBM itself. I wrote about it a while ago, but the NBM's (which is an ensemble) details can be viewed here: < https://www.meted.ucar.edu/winter/nbm32winter/ > You'll need to register first though. At this range, I'd recommend using it. It begins losing its advantages as the event begins to develop and a consensus becomes strong. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: Thank you. Do you happen to know how much snow Philly will be getting? Snow - sleet - snow . 8inches NYC looks like 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I want a Mar 2019 blob moving over my fanny. I'm hoping the convection gets wrapped into the WCB in this and we get an obscene few hours on the front end. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm not seeing anything on any model indicating widespread amounts higher than maybe 15" for the most aggressive runs Being one of the most reasonable posters, i’m sure you have thought that for days now. I agree 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: GYX watches up to CNH and over to PWM, but just short of LEW Plenty of time left. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: RPM, and HRRR are bad models. I never use them , unless 12 hours out. Actually you’re not far off. So I’m confused as to why you referenced Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MegaMike said: Pivotal doesn't do any weighting. Snowfall is readily available by the NBM itself. I wrote about it a while ago, but the NBM's (which is an ensemble) details can be viewed here: < https://www.meted.ucar.edu/winter/nbm32winter/ > You'll need to register first though. At this range, I'd recommend using it. It begins losing its advantages as the event begins to develop and a consensus becomes strong. Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Actually you’re not far off. So I’m confused as to why you referenced Ike. I have watched HRRR change snow / rain lines within the storm timeframe. Why are we using it 36 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Snow - sleet - snow . 8inches NYC looks like 15 inches. How many inches does this look like? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wizard021 said: I have watched HRRR change snow / rain lines within the storm timeframe. Why are we using it 36 hours out? No one is seriously considering it seriously 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, wizard021 said: I have watched HRRR change snow / rain lines within the storm timeframe. Why are we using it 36 hours out? Please stop embarrassing the NYC thread in here. No reason to be in here unless you are browsing/skimming events happening in the NE region. Just my 2 cents. Best of luck to the NE crew hopefully we all cash in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thank you. I think a few more may have been added...but the general idea. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only a matter of time until the GFS scores the coup from yesterday! What a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sick of seeing this ...gotta comment on it - want it out there before whatever this thing scores, in case it doesn't for a some scorned winter lovers - That notching in the QPF/ .. related snow products? Don't ignore that - It's real in this situation. Folks are discussing the 'hygroscopic theft' of undercutting 10 F DPs underneath ... well-enough .. but, taking all these Kutchera this, and model-centric snow product that, and blending them, clearly shows a barrier jet axial dry tongue eroding into this this...and I know why - it is because the snow genesis is high up in this scenario, and that is affording a lot of evaporation in that barrier axis, ...where the restorative interior jet is organized from interior D.E. Maine and points to the Worcester Hills -... The Boxing Day storm was a latter correction and we didn't really have time to steep in this fore-shadowing of that event, but there was a clear notching phenomenon that really was guite similar to this back then, that I personally did not take into consideration and dismissed it as noise.. Well, we didn't do so well in that system, despite any notoriety - ... We ended up with 4 or 5" of arctic grits ... drifted against opposing curb slants and finned around tree trunks and tires of cars, with not much on exposed ground from that, where 20 to 24 " jackpotted S of here... and N. Middlesex was targeted by the barrier jet dry air hose in that event ... this looks similar to me.. . Don't be surprised if there is a hygroscopic shadowing in a dearth band here in the interior up through S NH.. This sort of/said notching like below began showing up two days ago and it's been a persistently recurring illustration since... this is exactly why I am afraid to get excited about this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Arnold214 said: I think a few more may have been added...but the general idea. Thanks Mike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: I think a few more may have been added...but the general idea. Is it easily available online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Is it easily available online? I know wxbell and pivotal weather have it. I haven't looked elsewhere but it should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 BOX has 53% chance we get over 12 inches in Boston, but calls for 11? Doesn't matter, but interesting. They probably just don't wanna use the 12-18 paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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