Active mid December with multiple event potential

[klw]

BTV has given me a Watch.  They put out a couple of new maps:

 

Well there is a third but why would I want to look at that:

 Probable range is dusting to 14 inch with a 5% chance of more that 18".  Expected is 5".

https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter

[CoastalWx]

RPM is Ray approved.

[CoastalWx]

[radarman]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That snow hole over me isn't sitting well with me

bullseye!!

 

[JC-CT]

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We take! Big dog incoming! 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

WXbell uses a few extra hot dogs in the recipe.

Foot longs?

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice SE shift Reggae 

[radarman]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

3km NAM Kuchie 

Seems reasonable.

So much pow, so little time

[radarman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice SE shift Reggae 

Nice to have some buffer for the shuffle

[TheSnowman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is Way too far north.  But if it goes where we Think it will, 100 miles SE, lock it.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Nice to have some buffer for the shuffle

Yup. It was inevitable. Heavy heavy snow

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I think that ended up better here then the 12z run.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

*APPROVED*

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks for posting!  I’d lock and run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

*APPROVED*

You probably wanna see euro on board thou , right 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan goes Hammer. 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You probably wanna see euro on board thou , right 

Need a few more tics on the Euro and the GFS.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan goes Hammer. 

He did exactly what he said he would do

[dryslot]

I've been curious to know what NWS model blends are used and how there weighted on Pivotal.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Cmass495 said:

 

[Cmass495]

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HREF, THE SYSTEM   
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS THE H5 LOW CROSSES FROM
NJ INTO SNE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE H5 LOW COULD WEAKEN A   
LITTLE SLOWER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, BUT VERY LITTLE TO SUGGEST
BUMPING UP THE CURRENT FORECAST TOO MUCH. ALSO, THE TRACK OF THE H5   
LOW IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND ITS TRACK ALONG THE MA/RI SOUTH
COAST WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS TOWARDS AND ALONG THE MA/RI SOUTH
COAST, INCLUDING THE CAPE & ISLANDS WILL MIX LIKELY WITH AND CHANGE
TO RAIN AFTER AN INITIAL THUMP, WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS.
THIS ALSO MEANS THAT AREAS FURTHER N&W WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS WHY WE EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES TO OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

A POTENTIAL RED FLAG AGAINST SOME OF THE EYE-POPPING TOTALS SHOWN BY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEPENING OF THE
SECONDARY LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW IN THE HIGH 990S OR LOW
1000S, WHICH INDICATES A LACK OF DEEPENING OR CYCLOGENESIS REQUIRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO HAVE MORE STAYING POWER AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TOTALS MUCH HIGHER THAN A FOOT AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THIS REDUCES
THE CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WINDY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO THE 1035 MB HIGH TO OUR
NORTH. OVERALL, GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND THE DEAMPLIFYING   
H5 SHORTWAVE, WE ARE INCLINED TO GO WITH A WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES
FOR OUR CWA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE S COAST. COULD SOME
LOCATIONS GET MORE THAN A FOOT? ABSOLUTELY, BUT IT IS HARD PRESSED
TO SEE AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

THE H5 UPPER LOW THAT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE NOR'EASTER
HAS SHOWN UP THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A CURSORY GLANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE GFS AND NAM
HAVE INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. A CLOSER LOOK SUGGESTS THAT THE NAM
MAY HAVE INITIALIZED THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES A LITTLE   
TOO MUCH. THESE ARE VERY FINE MARGINS AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES, BUT
COULD HAVE AN OUTSIZED ROLE DOWNSTREAM AND STORM IMPACTS ON OUR
AREA.

OVERALL, WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT OF A SIGNIFICANT, BUT
NOT BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MA/RI
SOUTH COAST AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL THUMP OF
SNOW.

[WeatherWilly]

We need to redefine what is a blockbuster storm at this point according to climate chance. Some of us might get snow from this one than we did all last season

[mattm4242]

We take. Let’s go.

 

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

A POTENTIAL RED FLAG AGAINST SOME OF THE EYE-POPPING TOTALS SHOWN BY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEPENING OF THE
SECONDARY LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW IN THE HIGH 990S OR LOW
1000S, WHICH INDICATES A LACK OF DEEPENING OR CYCLOGENESIS REQUIRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO HAVE MORE STAYING POWER AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TOTALS MUCH HIGHER THAN A FOOT AT THIS TIME.

Tell that to PDII

[Bostonseminole]

3 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HREF, THE SYSTEM   
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS THE H5 LOW CROSSES FROM
NJ INTO SNE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE H5 LOW COULD WEAKEN A   
LITTLE SLOWER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, BUT VERY LITTLE TO SUGGEST
BUMPING UP THE CURRENT FORECAST TOO MUCH. ALSO, THE TRACK OF THE H5   
LOW IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND ITS TRACK ALONG THE MA/RI SOUTH
COAST WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS TOWARDS AND ALONG THE MA/RI SOUTH
COAST, INCLUDING THE CAPE & ISLANDS WILL MIX LIKELY WITH AND CHANGE
TO RAIN AFTER AN INITIAL THUMP, WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS.
THIS ALSO MEANS THAT AREAS FURTHER N&W WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS WHY WE EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES TO OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

A POTENTIAL RED FLAG AGAINST SOME OF THE EYE-POPPING TOTALS SHOWN BY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEPENING OF THE
SECONDARY LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW IN THE HIGH 990S OR LOW
1000S, WHICH INDICATES A LACK OF DEEPENING OR CYCLOGENESIS REQUIRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO HAVE MORE STAYING POWER AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TOTALS MUCH HIGHER THAN A FOOT AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THIS REDUCES
THE CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WINDY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO THE 1035 MB HIGH TO OUR
NORTH. OVERALL, GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND THE DEAMPLIFYING   
H5 SHORTWAVE, WE ARE INCLINED TO GO WITH A WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES
FOR OUR CWA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE S COAST. COULD SOME
LOCATIONS GET MORE THAN A FOOT? ABSOLUTELY, BUT IT IS HARD PRESSED
TO SEE AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

THE H5 UPPER LOW THAT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE NOR'EASTER
HAS SHOWN UP THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A CURSORY GLANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE GFS AND NAM
HAVE INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. A CLOSER LOOK SUGGESTS THAT THE NAM
MAY HAVE INITIALIZED THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES A LITTLE   
TOO MUCH. THESE ARE VERY FINE MARGINS AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES, BUT
COULD HAVE AN OUTSIZED ROLE DOWNSTREAM AND STORM IMPACTS ON OUR
AREA.

OVERALL, WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT OF A SIGNIFICANT, BUT
NOT BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MA/RI
SOUTH COAST AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL THUMP OF
SNOW.

seems reasonable for my area, I've been thinking 10-12" for a bit now.

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think that ended up better here then the 12z run.

that will be dendy-approved

[wizard021]

Icon south !

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Tell that to PDII

I'm not seeing anything on any model indicating widespread amounts higher than maybe 15" for the most aggressive runs