Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 canadian looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: Thanks, the cutter idea is what I meant by "in" but yes north enough to mix/rain along the coastal areas for a time is 100% possible/likely. The suppression idea is locked in my head and keeping me most skeptical but I can see what you mean. There’s definitely a limit. The blocking and associated 50/50 low is felt very strongly. But that main shortwave is going negative fairly far west and it gains some latitude out there too. That’s why I’ve been saying I’d want to be north of Philly...they might be ok there but we’ve seen some runs like the 00z euro which cause ptype issues we’ll into NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I have not been on the forum much, kind of a snoozer for me. Looks great for most of the board down there. I'll be watching for NW shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canadian wants nothing to do with Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Has to be posted to crush future reality. Even James is pretty smokin on that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I'm no expert at reading these things but this actually looks pretty darn good, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Canadian wants nothing to do with Monday. Not surprising since Reggie wasn’t biting either. Usually if RGEM doesn’t bite, then the GGEM won’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Woah. The gfs is a one two punch for here. I’m ready to get my nose bloody. Let’s do this. #NovaScotiaStrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This thing’s outta here Thursday afternoon. Maybe some flurries still linger Thursday evening in SE MA but that’s it. It’s a nuke but t doesn’t hang around. For 36 hours like Jan 2015. The old “talk it into existence” it’s basically a 12 hour event save for light snows on either side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: I'm no expert at reading these things but this actually looks pretty darn good, no? That’s a very good sounding. Classic cross-hair sig. You’d overcome a borderline boundary layer pretty quickly on Monday if that happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m not sure why the duration fetish from some.... it’s modeled to be a great event... who cares if the meat is only like 12 hours? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure why the duration fetish from some.... it’s modeled to be a great event... who cares if the meat is only like 12 hours? Probably because duration allows for a higher ceiling and people want 2 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure why the duration fetish from some.... it’s modeled to be a great event... who cares if the meat is only like 12 hours? Because, more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s definitely a limit. The blocking and associated 50/50 low is felt very strongly. But that main shortwave is going negative fairly far west and it gains some latitude out there too. That’s why I’ve been saying I’d want to be north of Philly...they might be ok there but we’ve seen some runs like the 00z euro which cause ptype issues we’ll into NJ. Thanks. Makes sense. I think the skepticism is coming from a place of "weenie" and not science because of previous forecast burns (maybe Feb/March 2017?) when we had systems coming in starting with temps in the mid-20s. Crap snow growth for the duration and a few inches of sand when big numbers were forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sure why the duration fetish from some.... it’s modeled to be a great event... who cares if the meat is only like 12 hours? Because we get sad when it's over, so the longer you can extend it the better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 As someone who got 26" in 15 hours during Pi day 2017 I can attest you absolutely don't need duration to get big totals, ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The old “talk it into existence” it’s basically a 12 hour event save for light snows on either side If it only needs 12 hours to have its way with us that’s ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It’s not in and out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The Monday storm is a good example of the difference between a nuanced thread-the-needle setup and what is being modeled for Wednesday night/Thursday. You have excellent model agreement 5 days out on the latter threat while you have models all over the map from a 4-6” event to nothing at all on a 54 hour forecast for Monday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Because we get sad when it's over, so the longer you can extend it the better. / 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The Monday storm is a good example of the difference between a nuanced thread-the-needle setup and what is being modeled for Wednesday night/Thursday. You have excellent model agreement 5 days out on the latter threat while you have models all over the map from a 4-6” event to nothing at all on a 54 hour forecast for Monday. We’ve been hanging our hats on thread the needle events for a while. Wed/Thu is a nice change of pace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The Monday storm is a good example of the difference between a nuanced thread-the-needle setup and what is being modeled for Wednesday night/Thursday. You have excellent model agreement 5 days out on the latter threat while you have models all over the map from a 4-6” event to nothing at all on a 54 hour forecast for Monday. A model fantasy, she is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canadian throws a deffy band into SNH. Probably a jack for the queens there on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 CMC throws on it's blinker and heads east. That's impressive lol Good hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Notice how it kind of hugs the coast down south and gets warmer midlevel air into NJ but then runs into a bit of a brick wall and moves ENE. Youre probably going to get a hellacious fronto band near on the northern side of that. These are the changes that you, scooter and I have been anticipating, and why the 20-30" in PA and NJ is BS. Also why this may be very high impact for some of NE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Nice hit on the CMC... subdued compared to the gfs... but still a nice 8-12” snowfall across the area. And for the “days and days” crowd... the storm has cleared the entire area by early Thursday evening.... everyone is probably done snowing by 4-5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not in and out. Lol Alternate reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nice hit on the CMC... subdued compared to the gfs... but still a nice 8-12” snowfall across the area. And for the “days and days” crowd... the storm has cleared the entire area by early Thursday evening.... everyone is probably done snowing by 4-5 pm Odd. Usually the CMC invents extra qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This thing’s outta here Thursday afternoon. Maybe some flurries still linger Thursday evening in SE MA but that’s it. It’s a nuke but t doesn’t hang around. For 36 hours like Jan 2015. Best. Storm. Evah. (I had 32” in Cambridge with car size drifts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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