ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Did you see the earlier runs of that thing? It didn't have snow moving into S CT until 5AM and snowing through the night Thursday Night. Thought i was hallucinating or looking at a different storm. Ever since its been bumping up the start time back down to orbit. Yeah I saw one run early yesterday that did that....I wasn't checking it regularly yet though until this morning. Interesting that it was doing that the whole time but slowly moving it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, PWMan said: Looks better for this area than I expected based on the "SE" play-by-play posts. Both Nams' are ok for up here, 12K recovered late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, PWMan said: Looks better for this area than I expected based on the "SE" play-by-play posts. Yeah NAM 12km you responded to had a lot of SE posts but it s not that far off 12z. I think the fear was 18z would be SYR BTV BML, lol. It hit you good. Anything not north of 12z was a win for the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Weenie map. That snow hole over me isn't sitting well with me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The differences in the general evolution on the models are minor at this point, but overall qpf output and the exact location of jacks and subby zones mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM Kuchie Seems reasonable. Can always go higher if needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 and of course, thermals lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 LOL, I decide to pop in and share in the (short-lived) excitement for my area. My only hope is for that CF to push deeper inland off the NH seacoast and I end up in the band just NW or so from there by about 20-30 mi. I think if we see 2-4" of snow up here, we will be lucky. Don't think we are going to see the best lift/forcing and with the fluff factor we will be 15:1 or even higher, maybe, so it won't take much precip to pile up the totals, but as far as impressive...eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I saw one run early yesterday that did that....I wasn't checking it regularly yet though until this morning. Interesting that it was doing that the whole time but slowly moving it up. Yeah, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18Z HRRR for those interested. It runs out 48 hours every 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM restores order down here... close to a foot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM Kuchie Seems reasonable. That would have me regretting my decision this past weekend to not bother clearing a way to get the snow blower out of the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Cmass495 said: They are not shying away from the dryslot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGiant611 said: LOL, I decide to pop in and share in the (short-lived) excitement for my area. My only hope is for that CF to push deeper inland off the NH seacoast and I end up in the band just NW or so from there by about 20-30 mi. I think if we see 2-4" of snow up here, we will be lucky. Don't think we are going to see the best lift/forcing and with the fluff factor we will be 15:1 or even higher, maybe, so it won't take much precip to pile up the totals, but as far as impressive...eh. Anything that is Dendy-approved you should like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said: LOL, I decide to pop in and share in the (short-lived) excitement for my area. My only hope is for that CF to push deeper inland off the NH seacoast and I end up in the band just NW or so from there by about 20-30 mi. I think if we see 2-4" of snow up here, we will be lucky. Don't think we are going to see the best lift/forcing and with the fluff factor we will be 15:1 or even higher, maybe, so it won't take much precip to pile up the totals, but as far as impressive...eh. No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah NAM 12km you responded to had a lot of SE posts but it s not that far off 12z. I think the fear was 18z would be SYR BTV BML, lol. It hit you good. Anything not north of 12z was a win for the forum. Yeah, that depiction is about as close to a forum-wide win as you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 A little too close to comfort to the heavy mixing but guess Ill take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM Kuchie Seems reasonable. Pivotal's kuchie is different, Must be the algorithm they use. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WeatherWilly said: A little too close to comfort to the heavy mixing but guess Ill take it Always better to play with fire and take your chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Nets yes brother yes. I'd rather curt off my pinkie than see that selfish POS Kyrie win a title 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Warnings up for CT. 12-16 all of southern CT, SE corner still on watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I believe the rgem is going to adjust south as well at 18z, based on early frames, but not 100% on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Pivotal's kuchie is different, Must be the algorithm they use. WXbell uses a few extra hot dogs in the recipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'd rather curt off my pinkie than see that selfish POS Kyrie win a title KD tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Whatever happens... the cold is winning in this situation - period... That high and that hygroscopic density working together will absolutely pin a CF in SE zones.. Thinking KTAN then collapsing SE... In fact, if this thing were to deepen more than current progged, the sub -geo goes more N and said CF ends up collocated over the Borne Bridge - You cannot put a 1035+ nascent arctic/polar hybrid high in this consensus -modeled position and have any warm air intrusion - it just is fluid mechanically impossible without 80 kts of S flow at 950 mb or something Jovian like that - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: They are not shying away from the dryslot Meh, those in the 12-18 range are actually 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3km NAM Kuchie Seems reasonable. In fact, I would say that anything less than that up here is downright unreasonable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cmass495 said: We take! Big dog incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I believe the rgem is going to adjust south as well at 18z, based on early frames, but not 100% on that still pretty amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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