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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re-iterating..

the NAM is likely already seen it's NW most position and that behavior ...and 'probable' settling back SE some fits rather nicely into its own model-climate.  It brings them on board at 84 and 60 hours ... and has them over amped and situated ( typically..) NW of trustier guidance ...then, slowly comes back to pack consensus at intervals < 48 hours... 

It shave QPF too ... I've seen it halve the 60 hour QPF in near terms in some case... Not saying that's happening here - this event seems to be maximizing a couple of physical mechanism so..over achieving for that.. .but, should these runs start coming SE it wouldn't be a shocker...

It already just cut back those snows the previous run had all the way to the Canadian border.

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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

What are the condition required for conditional symmetric instability again? I only remember a stacked vertical profile @Typhoon Tip

I provided a link a bunch of pages ago... but here it is again: 

https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/

It's in there... it offers a run down topically that doesn't require a thesaurus ... but you may have to do some secondary look ups, sure. 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z RPM is tickling SE a bit too.

Did you see the earlier runs of that thing? It didn't have snow moving into S CT until 5AM and snowing through the night Thursday Night. Thought i was hallucinating or looking at a different storm. Ever since its been bumping up the start time back down to orbit.

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