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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this...

12_16.20_snow_forecast.thumb.jpg.78c4d9a427fc5a6506cb38e36af73b00.jpg03_12.17_snow_forecast.thumb.jpg.8e294d310fdf7dfcd6b06f791ae05766.jpg

I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. 

I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. 

Here's the analysis and model runs from that event. 

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I mean I can't complain too much I had 9.5 of sleet snow mix. 

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Re-iterating..

the NAM is likely already seen it's NW most position and that behavior ...and 'probable' settling back SE some fits rather nicely into its own model-climate.  It brings them on board at 84 and 60 hours ... and has them over amped and situated ( typically..) NW of trustier guidance ...then, slowly comes back to pack consensus at intervals < 48 hours... 

It shave QPF too ... I've seen it halve the 60 hour QPF in near terms in some case... Not saying that's happening here - this event seems to be maximizing a couple of physical mechanism so..over achieving for that.. .but, should these runs start coming SE it wouldn't be a shocker...

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