dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The weaker wave is going to result in a more eastern solution, That's the key unless it goes to town later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like when I post about a trend that could lead to more snow and @Dr. Dews weenies me, the old Carmen San Diego music plays that told you that you were about to catch the bad guy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: When DT was drunk posting last week, it reminded me we used to voice chat in the late 90's starting near hurricane Floyd and its hairpin north turn I'm rather surprised we don't use a voice chat of some kind. Discord or TeamSpeak for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yup. All systems go. Hammertime for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Still very tucked in at 36. Not sure how it was at 12z 42.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this... I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. Here's the analysis and model runs from that event. I mean I can't complain too much I had 9.5 of sleet snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm rather surprised we don't use a voice chat of some kind. Discord or TeamSpeak for example. Should go super old school and use Roger Wilco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 this run looks maybe more consolidated at H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: this run looks maybe more consolidated at H5? Is the trailing SW digging more/further behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ALB to BGM just destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Forcing looks like it's pushed south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is the trailing SW digging more/further behind? It is both of those things I believe . Very slightly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Boston buried on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z Nam, H5 stays closed longer this run as it gets up to this lat, So that will be a slight offset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hellacious coastal front SE CT to S shore . NW of that crushed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 BTV just issued watches for their two southern VT zones. Expect ALY and GYX to fill in the gaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 39 hr brings the mix just about up to Brockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ALB to BGM just destroyed. Here too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z Nam, H5 stays closed longer this run as it gets up to this lat, So that will be a slight offset 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: It is both of those things I believe . Very slightly Likely related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yep, clear southward shift in the best forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: 39 hr brings the mix just about up to Brockton. Never makes it to us. We are ground zero for huge snows in EMA this run..Boston and more just sw and w. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Re-iterating.. the NAM is likely already seen it's NW most position and that behavior ...and 'probable' settling back SE some fits rather nicely into its own model-climate. It brings them on board at 84 and 60 hours ... and has them over amped and situated ( typically..) NW of trustier guidance ...then, slowly comes back to pack consensus at intervals < 48 hours... It shave QPF too ... I've seen it halve the 60 hour QPF in near terms in some case... Not saying that's happening here - this event seems to be maximizing a couple of physical mechanism so..over achieving for that.. .but, should these runs start coming SE it wouldn't be a shocker... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What are the condition required for conditional symmetric instability again? I only remember a stacked vertical profile @Typhoon Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Yea, nice job..subtle, but I see it. That is why that wave remains more coherent, longer. This is a trend and could be our path to a blockbuster...odds against it, sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ping ping ping ping ping ping ping ping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ALB to BGM just destroyed. I don't like that pink so close to me. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 BOX just went warnings 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hellacious coastal front SE CT to S shore . NW of that crushed I'm gonna be walking a tight-rope on that coastal front down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 OT but Henry has picked up his game big time. Nice posts man! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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