Active mid December with multiple event potential

[Greg]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So in summery aren’t buying the 12z Euro 

It does hold more weight though than the others.

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is why I was asking @dryslot about the proximity...don't think its close enough, though.

Yeah...I have another 18 degrees of longitude to work with...

[SnowGiant611]

How important is the initial position of cyclogenesis off the EC to the eventual verification of the models?  

Will the LP simply be shunted directly OTS once it hits the HP confluence just south of central LI?  Will it be rapidly pushed E or will it linger/occlude?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is why I was asking @dryslot about the proximity...don't think its close enough, though.

No help to us, Better if it didn't exist, I answered you above as i was busy with a customer and missed your post.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What happens is it pushes the best WAA in the mid-levels in the WCB from CT almost due E over SE MA and out to sea while the ML magic banding goes from like N/central PA to Catskills into NW MA/S VT/SW NH....and MA is kind of left in the middle and E MA still gets decent low-level forcing precip while central MA to the CT valley gets kind of shafted....this is where scott (coastalwx) was saying we need to watch the convective blob....if that is escaping eastward less as we get closer, then we're going to see a much stronger WCB into MA.

We can also root for a continued north trend.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think we're holding with our 8-16" call. 

Yea, that works. No reason to make any drastic knee jerk changes. 

[CCHurricane]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That's fair, and likely correct.  I'd be happy with 4-6" at this point

Right!? Was looking pretty solid for SE Mass up until last night. We should be used to this by now though.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We can also root for a continued north trend.

Yeah, basically just get slammed with the WCB and then the lower level forcing behind it. I don't think it's going to come that far NW though....but yeah, that would be yet another way to get rid of the precip minima

[klw]

From the BTV midday AFD:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1202 PM EST Tuesday...No changes needed to fcst this aftn.
We have noticed some significant changes with the new 12z
guidance, with a shift northward in the qpf and potential
snowfall acrs our central/southern cwa associated with system
late Weds into Thurs. After coordination with WPC and
surrounding wfo`s we will have the latest update with aftn
package.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, basically just get slammed with the WCB and then the lower level forcing behind it. I don't think it's going to come that far NW though....but yeah, that would be yet another way to get rid of the precip minima

I agree. Best hope is for a sink back se to get the decaying deformation.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So in summery aren’t buying the 12z Euro 

I would.  We're this close in and it's pretty good at handling coastals.

[WeatherX]

6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So in summery aren’t buying the 12z Euro 

Weenie rule of thumb is, "when the model shows a favorable outcome for your backyard, it is correct." "When the model shows an unfavorable outcome for your backyard, it is not correct." 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Conditional Symmetric instability? 

I like my instability asymmetric, just like my women.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I would.  We're this close in and it's pretty good at handling coastals.

And it's been very consistent aside from a burp run or two

 

[The 4 Seasons]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think we're holding with our 8-16" call. 

im not even considering a change until i see the 18/00Z runs today. Windshield wiper forecasting based on a model run (or two) at this range is never a good idea. You go to 6-12 then tomorrow morning you're back up to 8-16. EC is holding pretty steady more or less and still supports around a foot + for most of CT. 

[weathafella]

Euro has had this with only minor variations for a week.  Presuming it pans out, the long is back.

[weathafella]

MAV muthufukkas for BOS:  8+4

 

[dryslot]

A day or two back, We were in the white up here, Looks like WPC thinks it has some more tics north.

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, klw said:

From the BTV midday AFD:

“After coordinating with surround offices, ehhh we’ll tell you later”

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What happens is it pushes the best WAA in the mid-levels in the WCB from CT almost due E over SE MA and out to sea while the ML magic banding goes from like N/central PA to Catskills into NW MA/S VT/SW NH....and MA is kind of left in the middle and E MA still gets decent low-level forcing precip while central MA to the CT valley gets kind of shafted....this is where scott (coastalwx) was saying we need to watch the convective blob....if that is escaping eastward less as we get closer, then we're going to see a much stronger WCB into MA.

I understood that, but what I was confused about was why there was a level of uncertainty implied as to where subsidence would set up should said scenario materialize. I was breaking his balls over it, but its seemed pretty clear for at least a couple of days.

Maybe he meant uncertainty with respect to the fact that subsidence could be elsewhere, IF the the forcing doesn't chase the convection. I've been saying all along that the coast would have heavy precip owed to low level fronto w coastal front, and mid level goodies west...subby in my area.

[78Blizzard]

I'm going with a 50/50 blend of the Ukie/Euro.

[CoastalWx]

EPS were a tad stronger and NW of 6z. Not by a whole lot though.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS were a tad stronger and NW of 6z. Not by a whole lot though.

you wouldn't blink an eye putting it in that trend gif I posted earlier.

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Exactly. I've been spending my morning talking followers down from the ledge. They melted as bad as weenies did in here after the NAM.  

Like I told you last night. Locked and loaded. 

Some of my met friends are worried more about slotting in CT than mixing, saying its pretty much a guarantee, i don't see it. I dont see any slotting on that EC run. NAM on the other hand...

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understood that, but what I was confused about was why there was a level of uncertainty implied as to where subsidence would set up should said scenario materialize. I was breaking his balls over it, but its seemed pretty clear for at least a couple of days.

Maybe he meant uncertainty with respect to the fact that subsidence could be elsewhere, IF the the forcing doesn't chase the convection. I've been saying all along that the coast would have heavy precip owed to low level fronto w coastal front, and mid level goodies west...subby in my area.

It's fine to speculate about where it would be...as long it is understood that it is speculation OR you are playing devil's advocate on a particular run. I think some of your posts came off as high certainty. I wouldn't say it is high certainty you end up in a subby zone. Some of your subsequent posts were more reasonable on the issue....it is certainly possible but there are also a number of ways you can avoid it.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

“After coordinating with surround offices, ehhh we’ll tell you later”

Theres no doubt watches are going to be expanded today, question is how far 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Some of my met friends are worried more about slotting in CT than mixing, saying its pretty much a guarantee, i don't see it. I dont see any slotting on that EC run. NAM on the other hand...

 

NAM is 75-100 miles further north with the slp at 15z Thursday

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's fine to speculate about where it would be...as long it is understood that it is speculation OR you are playing devil's advocate on a particular run. I think some of your posts came off as high certainty. I wouldn't say it is high certainty you end up in a subby zone. Some of your subsequent posts were more reasonable on the issue....it is certainly possible but there are also a number of ways you can avoid it.

Agreed. I think I have just been tracking this too long.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed. I think I have just been tracking this too long.

 

I think Will put it nicely. I don't have the confidence or certainty to say it's near your hood right now. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

NAM is 75-100 miles further north with the slp at 15z Thursday

Right. Thats my point. And at the moment, not buying it.