dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Going by the precip charts, Ukie looked like it came north from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, SnowGiant611 said: I just have this strong feeling that the radar is going to be showing amazing returns over our location, but due to the dry air in place nothing will reach the ground. These models often have a very difficult time forecasting erosion of the leading edge of the precip shield. Also, if it takes 5-6 hours to saturate the column up here, we lose opportunity for the biggest snows, especially if the storm rotates OTS quickly as opposed to a N/NE motion into the Gulf of Maine. I think that will be an issue just north of the mid-level death band...you'll prob have a lot of lower level dry air that makes it arctic sand wherever that happens. I don't think you'll get a massive virga storm though...you prob need to be at the very northern periphery to stay virga all storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said: Well, I've mostly been sitting this out up here near the Lakes Region. Are we now back in play or is this just the typical model waffling before we get into the HR range? Yes and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You taught them well...... They were even whining about NAO blocks for a few runs even though this would be in Ottawa without it. Oh, That one hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That subsidence zone has been persistently modelled on several products for a number of runs. I'm not sure if I want it to come to fruition so Ray can crow about it, or that I don't want it to work out... dilemma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Every time I see a post from dryslot I want to drink a shot of bleach. He’s like the grim reaper of SNE snow. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukie is pretty nice near BOS. That's going to be quite the man snow where it does not taint, and on warm side of CF. I guess for those on the edge, looks like cstl areas will get a lot of light moods snows into Thursday evening that could drop an extra inch or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: That subsidence zone has been persistently modelled on several products for a number of runs. I'm not sure if I want it to come to fruition so Ray can crow about it, or that I don't want it to work out... dilemma Just remember, you don't just get Ray - but also DIT several others (including myself). It's a bargain you can't pass up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That ACK track was my climo favorite growing up in E.NY. What a classic track that is. Just sayin!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Every time I see a post from dryslot I want to drink a shot of bleach. He’s like the grim reaper of SNE snow. He still is recovering from the Valentines Day massacre of 2015. Well more like 2/15/15. One of the last posts when the models showed a PWM jack that day was "we take." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukmet furthest west so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Anyone else surprised that we don't have more of a baroclinic zone setup here? With the tight pressure gradients I would expect to see more wind than being forecast? Is this due to lack of mixing to the lower levels? Could this actually be a sneaky factor for snow accumulations for northern zones? If the NE wind was stronger, this would support even more colder air funneling down from Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You'll prob still get plenty of snow, but there will be a lot of paste there I think as a chunk of the storm you'll be on the warm side of the CF....so it'll be 32F mash potatoes. Yea, with 925 to 850 so cold, he wnt rain...may just lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 BOS with about 35mm all snow on the meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Just sayin!!!!! Even though I haven’t checked in in a few hours whenever I see that you have posted I know the trends have become more favorable for W zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nice banding signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: BOS with about 35mm all snow on the meteogram Post em if you got em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said: Anyone else surprised that we don't have more of a baroclinic zone setup here? With the tight pressure gradients I would expect to see more wind than being forecast? Is this due to lack of mixing to the lower levels? Could this actually be a sneaky factor for snow accumulations for northern zones? If the NE wind was stronger, this would support even more colder air funneling down from Canada? It's not ideal for huge wind due to the frigid cold low levels....when you have a damming setup, it's harder for winds to mix. It should get pretty darn windy on the Cape though where they are much warmer in the low levels....abd maybe even E MA coast for a time. The interior would probably due better for wind if the high was more west in Ontario which would be less cross-isobaric flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Every time I see a post from dryslot I want to drink a shot of bleach. He’s like the grim reaper of SNE snow. Welcome to my life the past few days, while you and your CT and NY montage keep telling how great it looked for most of SNE, only to see like 2" near the NH border lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hartford about 30mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: lawl The gradiant on that run is so severe here it would give me 20 inches at our house and 7 inches at the start of the driveway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Post em if you got em I was trying to but the "post from URL" isn't working for me, and I'm out of attachment space. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?stn=Boston&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std&lang=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It’s a 12-18” er CT on Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Every time I see a post from dryslot I want to drink a shot of bleach. He’s like the grim reaper of SNE snow. Haven't been following. are we stealing your snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 35mm = 1.4" 30mm = 1.2" 25mm = 1.0" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We await the Euro... do we still need the EPS at this time? Those have been so steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That will do...shoved subbie to Dave 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That’s like 12” of mashed potatoes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Glad I never caved to the worries about suppression. Big one incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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