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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Just now, SnowGiant611 said:

I just have this strong feeling that the radar is going to be showing amazing returns over our location, but due to the dry air in place nothing will reach the ground.  These models often have a very difficult time forecasting erosion of the leading edge of the precip shield.  Also, if it takes 5-6 hours to saturate the column up here, we lose opportunity for the biggest snows, especially if the storm rotates OTS quickly as opposed to a N/NE motion into the Gulf of Maine.

I think that will be an issue just north of the mid-level death band...you'll prob have a lot of lower level dry air that makes it arctic sand wherever that happens. I don't think you'll get a massive virga storm though...you prob need to be at the very northern periphery to stay virga all storm.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

That subsidence zone has been persistently modelled on several products for a number of runs.  I'm not sure if I want it to come to fruition so Ray can crow about it, or that I don't want it to work out...   dilemma 

Just remember, you don't just get Ray - but also DIT several others (including myself). It's a bargain you can't pass up

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every time I see a post from dryslot I want to drink a shot of bleach. He’s like the grim reaper of SNE snow.

He still is recovering from the Valentines Day massacre of 2015. Well more like 2/15/15. One of the last posts when the models showed a PWM jack that day was "we take." 

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Anyone else surprised that we don't have more of a baroclinic zone setup here?  With the tight pressure gradients I would expect to see more wind than being forecast?  Is this due to lack of mixing to the lower levels?  Could this actually be a sneaky factor for snow accumulations for northern zones?  If the NE wind was stronger, this would support even more colder air funneling down from Canada? 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said:

Anyone else surprised that we don't have more of a baroclinic zone setup here?  With the tight pressure gradients I would expect to see more wind than being forecast?  Is this due to lack of mixing to the lower levels?  Could this actually be a sneaky factor for snow accumulations for northern zones?  If the NE wind was stronger, this would support even more colder air funneling down from Canada? 

It's not ideal for huge wind due to the frigid cold low levels....when you have a damming setup, it's harder for winds to mix. It should get pretty darn windy on the Cape though where they are much warmer in the low levels....abd maybe even E MA coast for a time.

 

The interior would probably due better for wind if the high was more west in Ontario which would be less cross-isobaric flow.

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every time I see a post from dryslot I want to drink a shot of bleach. He’s like the grim reaper of SNE snow.

Welcome to my life the past few days, while you and your CT and NY montage keep telling how great it looked for most of SNE, only to see like 2" near the NH border lol

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