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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll prob still get plenty of snow, but there will be a lot of paste there I think as a chunk of the storm you'll be on the warm side of the CF....so it'll be 32F mash potatoes.

I could see it starting fairly cold going to mashed and then going back to fairly Cold... middle part of the pack could be mashed potatoes. As long as it’s all snow, don’t care 

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29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. It will be nice, don't get me wrong. But we are always missing the best stuff around here. 8-12' when it could have been 16-20". Locked for days then inside 36hr....

I just hope we don't need to downgrade the call....looked good from a distance when models were throwing out 15-20" left and right, hopefully the dreaded sleet doesn't cut our numbers in half. My hometown of Lancaster PA was looking like a jackpot that may end up with more sleet than snow now. Crazy storm to track

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

Don't deny the se correction in the end. Seen it many times with these.

I fully expect a meesenger shuffle SE at the end...the question si where does this peak on the models for the NW trend. It could go further at 00z before coming back some.

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like all the whining from you guys over the last 3-4 days has paid off. Congrats on the jack 

You taught them well......

 

They were even whining about NAO blocks for a few runs even though this would be in Ottawa without it.

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I just have this strong feeling that the radar is going to be showing amazing returns over our location, but due to the dry air in place nothing will reach the ground.  These models often have a very difficult time forecasting erosion of the leading edge of the precip shield.  Also, if it takes 5-6 hours to saturate the column up here, we lose opportunity for the biggest snows, especially if the storm rotates OTS quickly as opposed to a N/NE motion into the Gulf of Maine.

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Just now, SnowGiant611 said:

I just have this strong feeling that the radar is going to be showing amazing returns over our location, but due to the dry air in place nothing will reach the ground.  These models often have a very difficult time forecasting erosion of the leading edge of the precip shield.  Also, if it takes 5-6 hours to saturate the column up here, we lose opportunity for the biggest snows, especially if the storm rotates OTS quickly as opposed to a N/NE motion into the Gulf of Maine.

If you get into the mid level banding, the column will be instantly saturated

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