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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Sign me up for that placement.

 

Man--great image of Ray getting porked.  Usually those are hanging down across the CRV.

Actually, Ray in that particular model output is on the line but actually just inside the better banding. The dry slot is actually a little bit north of him verbatim on this.

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Tip... what is CSI banding?

Sure ..good question...  Conditional Symmetric Instability in a quick Web look up should be sufficient to elucidate that phenomenon?  

 https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/  

This excerpt here, from that source, nicely fits this overall scenario ...etc..etc.. there are other hints and discrete aspects that also fit ...which I will leave to your devices..

"... the vertical profile must be at or near saturation. This is where the "conditional" portion of CSI comes into play. Also, note how the winds are turning clockwise, or veering with height. A sounding like the one below, if observed on the southern side of an upper-level jet streak, could be an area where the release of CSI is possible. .."   In this case, we have a 500 mb SW ...100 kt wind that is turning E at 300 mb over CNE over the course of the event... and the column is going to be saturated with that pwat/S stream air riding up that frontal slope and taping into the environment...  ...not gonna re-iterate but you get it.

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Just now, Greg said:

Actually, Ray in that particular model output is on the line but actually just inside the better banding. The dry slot is actually a little bit north of him verbatim on this.

No, I'm like 2 mi from the NH border...I'm porked, there. Trust me, I may have taken a few close looks.

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

RGEM map I haven't seen posted, just for the posterity.

rgem-all-neng-total_snow_10to1-8242400.thumb.png.72402aa25c17c6193f9f69c72d39e2b2.png

 

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we still have 36 hours to go.  Would like to see another shift at 18/00z and maybe we can grab a few inches.  That'd be a huge win after watching this crushed south for days and days.

GFS.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-8238800.thumb.png.3f8c1b7e461496b251505e0608446bc9.png

 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lawl

image.png

Dear @CoastalWx,

Just curious, when do you think we can start speculating on where the subby exhaust will be?

Asking a for a friend-

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sure ..good question...  Conditional Symmetric Instability in a quick Web look up should be sufficient to elucidate that phenomenon?  

 https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/  

This excerpt here, from that source, nicely fits this overall scenario ...etc..etc.. there are other hints and discrete aspects that also fit ...which I will leave to your devices..

"... the vertical profile must be at or near saturation. This is where the "conditional" portion of CSI comes into play. Also, note how the winds are turning clockwise, or veering with height. A sounding like the one below, if observed on the southern side of an upper-level jet streak, could be an area where the release of CSI is possible. .."   In this case, we have a 500 mb SW ...100 kt wind that is turning E at 300 mb over CNE over the course of the event... and the column is going to be saturated with that pwat/S stream air riding up that frontal slope and taping into the environment...  ...not gonna re-iterate but you get it.

Ah, I was wondering what the term for this was. I remember Anthony Masiello on twitter talking about this during the Jan 2018 storm.

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