IowaStorm05 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Forgive my frivolous comment. But I sit here and I dream.... Canadian and Ukie stay steadfast, and suddenly NAM and GFS dive 45 miles southeast on their 18z runs. Hopes. Dreams. I finally take a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: GGEM was the furthest north at 00z, so makes sense. 00z already crushed Dendrite/Lakes Region to Dryslot, so if that went more north, yikes. I'd say it was more west, mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Canadian tucks it in near ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Sign me up for that placement. Man--great image of Ray getting porked. Usually those are hanging down across the CRV. I can deal with 11" instead of 14"...its the 11" instead of 25-35" that kills me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Sign me up for that placement. Man--great image of Ray getting porked. Usually those are hanging down across the CRV. Actually, Ray in that particular model output is on the line but actually just inside the better banding. The dry slot is actually a little bit north of him verbatim on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tip... what is CSI banding? Sure ..good question... Conditional Symmetric Instability in a quick Web look up should be sufficient to elucidate that phenomenon? https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/ This excerpt here, from that source, nicely fits this overall scenario ...etc..etc.. there are other hints and discrete aspects that also fit ...which I will leave to your devices.. "... the vertical profile must be at or near saturation. This is where the "conditional" portion of CSI comes into play. Also, note how the winds are turning clockwise, or veering with height. A sounding like the one below, if observed on the southern side of an upper-level jet streak, could be an area where the release of CSI is possible. .." In this case, we have a 500 mb SW ...100 kt wind that is turning E at 300 mb over CNE over the course of the event... and the column is going to be saturated with that pwat/S stream air riding up that frontal slope and taping into the environment... ...not gonna re-iterate but you get it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I take no issues with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That ACK track was my climo favorite growing up in E.NY. What a classic track that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GGEM is still 8-12” NW of the canal... not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Is it possible to have powder at 30+ degrees? Or is snow density solely and directly related to surface temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Greg said: Actually, Ray in that particular model output is on the line but actually just inside the better banding. The dry slot is actually a little bit north of him verbatim on this. No, I'm like 2 mi from the NH border...I'm porked, there. Trust me, I may have taken a few close looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: GGEM was the furthest north at 00z, so makes sense. 00z already crushed Dendrite/Lakes Region to Dryslot, so if that went more north, yikes. Get's the MLs goodies into CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NAM had decent snows all the way to the Canadian border on this run, and even good stuff well into central ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z The trick is having the low not jump to that convection and hang on near the NJ coastline for as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 lawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GGEM came NW of 00z too. this is no longer a trend - this is our emerging REALITY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 CMC almost looks like the maps it had with this storm at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: The trick is having the low not jump to that convection and hang on near the NJ coastline for as long as possible. Didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: How is it that the top amounts in SNE even with the GFS Finally coming north are now 10”-12”?? I thought of the track was right, you’d see the 20”-24” amounts? There no where. Mid levels are weak and have been on gfs , thou improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GGEM definitely in the NAM/RGEM boat with the 500mb ULL vs the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: lawl add one more to the list of our deformity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yup. It will be nice, don't get me wrong. But we are always missing the best stuff around here. 8-12' when it could have been 16-20". Locked for days then inside 36hr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: RGEM map I haven't seen posted, just for the posterity. 34 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah we still have 36 hours to go. Would like to see another shift at 18/00z and maybe we can grab a few inches. That'd be a huge win after watching this crushed south for days and days. GFS. 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: lawl Dear @CoastalWx, Just curious, when do you think we can start speculating on where the subby exhaust will be? Asking a for a friend- 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dear @CoastalWx, Just curious, when do you think we can start speculating on where the subby exhaust will be? Asking a for a friend- .maybe this ticks NW and you are on CF lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dear @CoastalWx, Just curious, when do you think we can start speculating on where the subby exhaust will be? Asking a for a friend- @CoastalWx"Up your ass and to the left" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: .maybe this ticks NW and you are on CF lol . Pretty hard to pull that off here.....its rare. I need a tic se. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sure ..good question... Conditional Symmetric Instability in a quick Web look up should be sufficient to elucidate that phenomenon? https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/ This excerpt here, from that source, nicely fits this overall scenario ...etc..etc.. there are other hints and discrete aspects that also fit ...which I will leave to your devices.. "... the vertical profile must be at or near saturation. This is where the "conditional" portion of CSI comes into play. Also, note how the winds are turning clockwise, or veering with height. A sounding like the one below, if observed on the southern side of an upper-level jet streak, could be an area where the release of CSI is possible. .." In this case, we have a 500 mb SW ...100 kt wind that is turning E at 300 mb over CNE over the course of the event... and the column is going to be saturated with that pwat/S stream air riding up that frontal slope and taping into the environment... ...not gonna re-iterate but you get it. Ah, I was wondering what the term for this was. I remember Anthony Masiello on twitter talking about this during the Jan 2018 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: @CoastalWx"Up your ass and to the left" He knows I'm just bustn' 'em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Don't look now, but the goofus might do something fun for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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