EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Come back down the ledge bud. The EPS shook me being NW. HOWEVER sleet has staying power, so if I repeat 2017s 9.5 of snow sleet mix I may have a White Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Nice call. The southern stream shortwaves always like to come in amped and NW. I guess my biggest concern was always that this thing would get shredded and weaken some as it moved east to prevent the big totals in SNE. Another example of hundreds of thousands where the FV3 led to more confusion than help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: I have a strong feeling this will be the gfs run that finally gets on board.... With a southern NH ML magic jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah we do this all of the time. The JV models go wild 36-48hrs out and then the varsity team comes out and restores order. Yeah, Some need to chill, Fun to look at but I don't take a lot of stock into what models have already came out at 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: People really losing their shit over 1 NAM run? C'mon folks, you are better than this No...I was starting to grow a bit wary even yesterday that things were starting to tick north on some of the models. Euro included. Very subtle ticks but still enough lead time to be concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM is pretty good here for some grid knocking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'd hit the 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: crazy that we are so close and still can't grasp what might happen. This is why we track.. this would seem to a reason not to track lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: People really losing their shit over 1 NAM run? C'mon folks, you are better than this Welcome to the board, you must be new here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: People really losing their shit over 1 NAM run? C'mon folks, you are better than this No I'm not lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Nice call. The southern stream shortwaves always like to come in amped and NW. I guess my biggest concern was always that this thing would get shredded and weaken some as it moved east to prevent the big totals in SNE. I just don't want it to be a banded mess which was my worry. I shared that too, especially as one forecasting. Still a question of whether or not we don't chase the blob well to the east. There will be convection, but can we avoid a massive MCS well east and wrap some WCB into this whole thing? Some models shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well see what the rest of the 12z does but awful start so far. I’ll tell you what, if the rest of 12z sucks... I’m not hanging around for the next 36 hours to parse over whether I’m getting 2” or 4” of slop. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm ready to play naked twister with the CF on the 3km. grrrr.... I'm on the wrong side of that little front. Must be a boundary layer because the sounding otherwise looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol, the CF on the RGEM is sick And would be Suicide Jumping for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: He's probably excited because we haven't had a real snow storm or snow pack down here in over a year and a half... He bought a 2 stage snowblower last year and has been so anxious to use it. You are SE of the coastal front so you don't get the easy to remove powder snow that falls to your NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another example of hundreds of thousands where the FV3 led to more confusion than help Props to you if this is more NW... I mean, still a good 36 hours to go. If that high was over-played. I was banking on the high even becoming stronger as we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, TheSnowman said: And would be Suicide Jumping for me. I'm pretty sure that's still snow. Just might not accumulate that well for those few hours. And that's if it doesn't shift back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Well see what the rest of the 12z does but awful start so far. I’ll tell you what, if the rest of 12z sucks... I’m not hanging around for the next 36 hours to parse over whether I’m getting 2” or 4” of slop. meh it was just the NAM, RGEM was better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Props to you if this is more NW... I mean, still a good 36 hours to go. If that high was over-played. I was banking on the high even becoming stronger as we get closer in. I think it has more to do with the block honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Bust... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8-12 range extended northward by BOX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: meh it was just the NAM, RGEM was better for you. by how much? seemed like some rain getting in there anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 WSW hoisted for all of SNE - Nantucket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: I'm pretty sure that's still snow. Just might not accumulate that well for those few hours. And that's if it doesn't shift back SE. He's fine. It is frigid at like 925. He's probably closer to 30 like you would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12Z GFS incoming... I predict cutter up the CT river... bullseye of 36" of snow in Waterbury... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: I think it has more to do with the block honestly. That an the intensity of the southern s/w. Those 2 have tugged this ever so slightly N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM is pretty good here for some grid knocking down. Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: this would seem to a reason not to track lol nah, it's fun.. if we knew for sure 100% 4 days out .. why track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think it has more to do with the block honestly. Yeah I guess I sort of lumped those two things together. The high plays off the block, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just don't want it to be a banded mess which was my worry. I shared that too, especially as one forecasting. Still a question of whether or not we don't chase the blob well to the east. There will be convection, but can we avoid a massive MCS well east and wrap some WCB into this whole thing? Some models shows this. I feel like the synoptics on the GFS were pretty similar but the evolution of the WCB and associated QPF was way different. Probably wrong. But I do think shearing out the shortwave and letting convection go wild can do some weird things. The NAM, on the other hand, just does the classic huge jump NW with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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