The 4 Seasons Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Hmmm my memory isnt anywhere near some others here when it comes to storms, but I think mar 2018 was decent. Like 7-8 inches? I do recall another storm where just inland, like Easton ridgefield etc. had a crushing heavy wet snow that knocked out power for days while right here on the coast we only got 5-6 gloppy inches. Regardless hopefully this finds a way to get everyone, even those folks down in DC. A classic DC-BOS I95 crusher is always fun I saw you're other comment too about Milford CT since 2016 which is also wrong. Check these out real quick, then im out for real. Doesnt look you like you did well on Mar 18 but im suspect of that 3.5 in woodmont, i think you got more than 6 from that one. but at least 3 more were around 10 or more. Feb 17 and Jan 18 were great daytime blizzard condition all-snow type storms. I coulnd't forget them if i tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The icon doesn’t trend, it flails around. It’s down there with the jma and navy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Well, it's tricky to explain effectively. Essentially we use ensembles because we don't understand the uncertainty of our chaotic atmosphere. Taking into account this uncertainty, the model runs several times with slightly perturbed conditions in order to create the individual members in order to best account for all possibilities. That's how we get the ensemble mean. The ensemble control forecast is the ensemble member run from the unperturbed, coarse-resolution initial conditions. Essentially the control run is useless in conclusion "As you learned earlier, meteorologists compensate by implementing a technique called ensemble forecasting, which gauges the sensitivity of a computer model's prediction to the way it's initialized. Specifically, meteorologists make minor changes to the initialization of a lower-resolution version of a specified operational model called the control member. For example, the control member in the GEFS has lower resolution than the operational GFS model. At any rate, the control member is run using this slightly different initial state. Then meteorologists tweak the initialization of the control member yet another time, in a slightly different way, and run the control member again using this new initial state. This process of "tweaking" the initial conditions of the control member is repeated a number of times (for some models, several dozen times), yielding a set of ensemble members. If all or most of the ensemble members come up with basically the same numerical prediction for a specific forecast day, meteorologists have a relatively high degree of confidence in that day's forecast. If, however, the tweaked model runs predict several noticeably different scenarios for the day in question, then forecasters have a fairly low degree of confidence in the numerical prediction." (Source) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM likes a couple inches south of the pike on Monday. I thought it was a step back from 6z, but the 3km was a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Notice how it kind of hugs the coast down south and gets warmer midlevel air into NJ but then runs into a bit of a brick wall and moves ENE. Youre probably going to get a hellacious fronto band near on the northern side of that. Yeah. Would expect the deform to set up MHT/CON rather than Adams, MA. 1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said: Is it just me or is the Dec 16/17 storm beginning to look more Miller A-esque? Almost a Miller A/B hybrid kind of. Definitely not a NJ model type system. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I saw you're other comment too about Milford CT since 2016 which is also wrong. Check these out real quick, then im out for real. Doesnt look you like you did well on Mar 18 but im suspect of that 3.5 in woodmont, i think you got more than 6 from that one. but at least 3 more were around 10 or more. Feb 17 and Jan 18 were great daytime blizzard condition all-snow type storms. I coulnd't forget them if i tried. Damn you didn’t have to do me like that. LOL. Some solid storms there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I'm not sure how this might break out in p-type, but here's the ICON qpf from now through Thursday night. I'd be taking a dive into the Kennebec if I were at Pit2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm not sure how this might break out in p-type, but here's the ICON qpf from now through Thursday night. Now that seems pretty unlikely I must say. And the ICON has a warm bias, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far. We’re outside looking in right now, but you know how it goes. A little less confluence and a little more amplification south and it won’t take many bumps to get a fronto band up here on the north side of the QPF gradient. Odd are against it, but we’ve seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Congrats Lunenburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS loving RI and SE Mass on Monday now. Not buying those thermals though. Would have to be a repeat of last week's deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm not sure how this might break out in p-type, but here's the ICON qpf from now through Thursday night. You’ve got multiple events there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: You’ve got multiple events there. I know--that's why I put in my caveat about p-types. I'm anticipating the Thursday event will be all snow. Anything else is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m glad we learned a lot from the clown maps a week ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: GFS loving RI and SE Mass on Monday now. Not buying those thermals though. Would have to be a repeat of last week's deal. Pounder to the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m glad we learned a lot from the clown maps a week ago. So disregard 6-10" of 34-35* power outage paste for RI and SE Mass? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pounder to the pike I need to miles NW of the Pike/495 interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS is a little mini paste bomb for Monday in SE areas (at least Nw of about GHG to UUU). Could be advisory amounts there. 1-3 gets pretty far west this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far. What I see is the Icon catching onto more a snow event. I do think the thermals with the Icon are warm biased. But..if you notice, it has been correcting with each run.. Eerily towards the Euro ans GFS. I find it more difficult to call the Icon the. " Trend Setter ". Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS with good continuity here for midweek. Time to start getting excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Gfs borderline warns SE areas on Monday... wow. Everyone focused on Thursday but Monday could produce now too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Another hit. Can’t ask for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 57 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably can count on one hand missing 3 fingers of when it snowed here and in DC. Just had to check. Since we moved to Maine in 1973, I count 27 snowfalls of 6"+ at DCA. We (at our then current domicile) had 6"+ on 4 of those occasions: 1/22/1987 1993 superstorm 1/25/2000 2/12-13/2014. Missing just the pinky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS will put feet in CT this run, tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Another hit. Can’t ask for more. I can ask for you to not be negative about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 We pound Monday and then Wednesday thru Friday! Days and days and days 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We pound Monday and then Wednesday thru Friday! Days and days and days Just out of curiosity, where do you get Friday from? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, SnowEMass said: I can ask for you to not be negative about it lol lol I don’t think I’ve been negative. Just keeping expectations in check at d4-5. I’ll be all in if we get this inside D2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Big time hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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