dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: ICON looks further north also, gets the CNE into the fun That's a big shift, But its the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said: Seems like the model spread is ridiculous right now. Can we expect them to be on the same page by 00z tonight? Not really, just IMBY weenie googles making the differences seem bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: NYC weenies dive bombing into the Hudson today . Pope not able to save them The delegation met and decided he had to be excommunicated.... 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That's a big shift, But its the ICON look at all the crap subsidence zones. very splotchy map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Personal experience with the NAM: It's passing thru classic 'NW bias' intervals for the next 2 .. 3 cycles. Thereafter, it will likely receded a couple lat/lon ticks SE ...but also shave some of QPF - ...which, I am noticing that despite other observers speaking of stronger overall synoptic evolution thru/by the region, the latter has already commenced ... part of that is systemic bias correction, but also, par of that is owing to its axis of band-back "quasi" trowal/WCB termination over cold dome, as being position NW too. Probably less than fun to try and separate those. The 0z and 6z runs were nearing 2." liq equiv+ at Logan ( for ex..) and this run keeps that location short of that number. That said, it is upping the totals at ALB over prior guidance... so there are two aspect going on, (some systemic bias correction + position differences)/2 ... effecting snow totals and QPF and so forth.. Bottom line for those using the NAM ... ( hopefully no one at intervals beyond 36 hours without a mischievous grin ), future cycles probably bump said axis' SE and take maybe another 1/5th of QPF ... which, isn't even saying either is correct - just that it is my experience that it does this moving through intervals < 60 hours.. Otherwise, it seems this run from orbit is showing what the other models are... a tendency for deamplification of the total wave space as this event is leaving... The NAM is slower to do so, where as the other extreme.. .the GFS wants to do so at least excuse imagined - I mean, it's like the model heard that a memo 'might' be written that allows it to do a-b-c, and before the others even got to read it.. it's already onto d-e-f .. That's sarcasm for the GFS is too fast to decay the kinematics ... probably ( tho not certain ), at the expense of it's own accuracy in this case... We'll see.. But, this - I think - explains what/why some of these more recent layouts of snow totaling/consensus is for the max out there NE PA/SE NY ... then a trailing off ( at little less climo-like for coastals storms in cold columns ) along the same axis nearing central MA ...etc... It's because the total system is losing mechanics during ... So when a major model refuses to budge, the end result will invariably demo that some vestige of "why" is evidenced - even if the model in question proves more erroneous over all, you can "see the point it was making" ? well, should that play out like that... that's the GFS' echo in the outcome... I think this is an important concept and philosophy during this era of models not actually controlling the future weather ( like a sci dystopian future lol ), but still being imperfect 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Really was hopeful we were going to avoid mixing concerns down here. So much for that. Is it too early in the day to start drinking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 All I know is that it makes much more sense to have the low closer to the PVA from the vort. When it was way east with the H5 low closing near NYC..just looked like it was going towards the WAA and baroclinic processes. These solutions going near ACK make sense from a meteorology standpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 And also, what happens with the blob. If that can stay closer to the low, the front end will be much more hellacious. That is in question too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NYC weenies dive bombing into the Hudson today . Pope not able to save them Its disgusting how people were hyping up the confluence up north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hear drips dripping...I don't want to believe....I don't want to believe... Put your depends on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Really was hopeful we were going to avoid mixing concerns down here. So much for that. Is it too early in the day to start drinking? Yeah, it's pretty much over for many folks. At least CNE cashes in, they deserve it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'd hit the reggie, personally. So would Ray. Dryslot, not sure yet. EMA, ooph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: At least we get the SNE weenies stressing a little bit. They had been having it way too easy with this system. I still expect something closer to the euro/gfs16 to verify. But we shall see. Coastal weenies have been through too much, and live in a constant flux of paranoia, delusion or resignation. Snow in dec here is bonus snow. I assume things aren't going to work out, I watch models to figure out exactly which way they won't work out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's a big shift, But its the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM Kuchie... looks like the most likely option. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The delegation met and decided he had to be excommunicated.... Lol. We disrobed him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All I know is that it makes much more sense to have the low closer to the PVA from the vort. When it was way east with the H5 low closing near NYC..just looked like it was going towards the WAA and baroclinic processes. These solutions going near ACK make sense from a meteorology standpoint. The look at H5 did not warrant these lows at the surface being that far east, I know you and Will were all over that yesterday, I was scratching my head on these runs when it looked good @H5 to only have the SLP track suck in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm ready to play naked twister with the CF on the 3km. Hey will, how about no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The delegation met and decided he had to be excommunicated.... Poor Pope is never coming back. Insulting to have the Rev standing in for him !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oof. Melt city if it goes down like that. Not here in the NW hinterland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The delegation met and decided he had to be excommunicated.... Classic.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I'd hit the reggie, personally. So would Ray. Dryslot, not sure yet. Yeah notsogood up here, but I think that’s where I’m leaning. A PSF-ASH band, maybe subby for Ray, and then back into better forcing further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats PF, you've joined the festivities. My nephew in Bristol RI has been so excited. Keeps emailing me absurd snowfall forecasts. Now as PF comes in, he starts to come out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: NAM Kuchie... looks like the most likely option. So the range for the potential in my area has been reduced to a dusting to 28 inches. Glad to see this coming into focus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah notsogood up here, but I think that’s where I’m leaning. A PSF-ASH band, maybe subby for Ray, and then back into better forcing further south. EMA crew on suicide alert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Yeah, it's pretty much over for many folks. At least CNE cashes in, they deserve it A couple more crap winters down this way and I might be ready to start trolling the board like you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NAM Kuchie... looks like the most likely option. That's going in the spank bank. I'd hate to be in NYC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Yeah, it's pretty much over for many folks. At least CNE cashes in, they deserve it I admire the trolling efforts but you kinda suck at it 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And also, what happens with the blob. If that can stay closer to the low, the front end will be much more hellacious. That is in question too. We would need to keep a consolidate ULL to do this imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: Coastal weenies have been through too much, and live in a constant flux of paranoia, delusion or resignation. Snow in dec here is bonus snow. I assume things aren't going to work out, I watch models to figure out exactly which way they won't work out. Sounds like a very mid-Atlantic mindset. I'm used to thinking in much of the same way for many years considering where I came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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