Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Time to start focusing on the smaller details as the large synoptic features are there. Where is there subsidence/dryslot issues. Where will there be enhanced snow areas, fronto and mid-level banding. Also, time to hand the baton off to the OP runs. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Blizz said: 00z PARA-GFS (New GFS) came in. 10:1 Kuchera: wheres that GFS16 meme you posted yesterday @dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Time to start focusing on the smaller details as the large synoptic features are there. Where is there subsidence/dryslot issues. Where will there be enhanced snow areas, fronto and mid-level banding. Also, time to hand the baton off to the OP runs. @STILL N OF PIKE and I love obsessing over that haha Miss messenger for that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Banding signal gets into S NH on the 00z Euro. Still too early to pinpoint where the big cutoff is I guess. It probably pounds 20-1 ML magic snowglobe snow up to MHT on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, DomNH said: Banding signal gets into S NH on the 00z Euro. Still too early to pinpoint where the big cutoff is I guess. It probably pounds 20-1 ML magic snowglobe snow up to MHT on that run. Yea, we good....mesoscale porkies not withstanding... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think what is leading to the large amount of QPF and moisture is the development of the strong warm front that every model run produces coming northward off the Carolina Coast. There is a large temperature gradient on the north side of the front from 925mb to 850mb of almost 10C+ within a fifty mile distance. That front never passes Nantucket on a majority of the models. I could definitely see QPF amounts increase throughout the next 36 hours. HI-Resolution models like the 3km NAM and the ARW 2 both show the onset of snow beginning much earlier tomorrow with the OES bands in the northeast winds as 850mb temps cool to nearly -10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @weathafella RPM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I still like my area for getting caught in the subby city...where the snow is sand, and the rates are shitty lol 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Almost all guidance jacks Runnaway area CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Even if the larger bands move inland, this seems like a storm that will keep producing snow bands from the south or southeast, someone will receive the pivot point for this system and where that monster death band/deformation band sits and pivots will determine the final snow jackpot location. My bet right now, is that the zones of highest amounts are elevated locations just in from the coast in CT, NE RI, SE Interior MA and the Cape. From Provincetown to Hyannis. That corridor on the Cape should see amazing amounts. my top five includes 17" from NEMO and 24 inches from the Feb 25th, 1999 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also impressiver are the temps from like 800 on down. There is actually low level CAPE. Might be a decent OE signal too in typical spots. The cstl front is hellacious. Could be near 32 at BOS and 18 in BED for a time. Will collapse SE near dawn Thursday. I told you this like 4 days ago, and you told me I was wrong. Its been clear as day for a while....watch, MHT and you will clean up, and I'll get like 8" of sand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 IBM lol. Is that the deep thunder thighs model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IBM lol. Is that the deep thunder thighs model? You look golden. I don't like the mesoscale features for this one here....banding signal through NH, and an OES CJ signal se...writing is on the wall, as the atmosphere has every reason to set up subby in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I told you this like 4 days ago, and you told me I was wrong. Its been clear as day for a while....watch, MHT and you will clean up, and I'll get like 8" of sand. I never said otherwise, or maybe I misunderstood. I don't mean a pure CJ..just a little contribution. Either way, that is low level stuff and nothing to do with any subby issues. You look good in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I told you this like 4 days ago, and you told me I was wrong. Its been clear as day for a while....watch, MHT and you will clean up, and I'll get like 8" of sand. Ray for some reason nobody ever says you will be in subby zone . lol I haven’t seen it posted in a storm. Always mid levels look good. They like you better as a happy poster ? Lol Even when banding is better to your NW. now for this storm maybe banding does look good , we shall see what euro does at 12z Usually if Interior Se mass to around S shore does well with hellacious low level forcing there is a ugly sub zone from N side Boston to 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My eyes will be looking at the 700mb heights. Need to watch where that subsidence zone is. You can see the differences in the models in where they place the snow bands. NAM I fell is too far N. The GFS is still too far S. The Ukie/RGEM/GGEM/Euro(lesser extent) are sort of in the middle. They bring that subsidence zone over the 495 belt W and N of BOS. Hopefully they are wrong and we see a more widespread precip shield with minimal breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I never said otherwise, or maybe I misunderstood. I don't mean a pure CJ..just a little contribution. Either way, that is low level stuff and nothing to do with any subby issues. You look good in the mid levels. I remember I said that there is some OES contribution, and you said its not that type of storm and something about the low position. Anyway, I am going to agree to disagree on OES having nothing to do with where subsidence sets up...unless a mid level deformation band sets up write over me to negate it, but that looks like it could be north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Almost all guidance jacks Runnaway area CT a great test for how the valley does here....we get to see which side of town does better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ray for some reason nobody ever says you will be in subby zone . lol I haven’t seen it posted in a storm. Usually if Interior Se mass to around S shore does well there is a ugly sub zone from N side Boston to 495 Exactly. I'm not trying to be a dick to Scott, but I feel like sometimes these mesoscale nuances are pretty predictable in hindsight...people overlook it or underestimate the importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. I'm not trying to be a dick to Scott, but I feel like sometimes these mesoscale nuances are pretty predictable in hindsight, but people over look it or underestimate the importance. I believe a part is They don’t want to hear negativity in a snow storm . Look at Bob’s post . He knows his stuff and like you said looks NW of you . Could shift a tad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Almost all guidance jacks Runnaway area CT He should do great, as should your area over to TAN/Bob and into the South Shore of Mass Nice storm, but frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: @weathafella RPM Thank you!! Did you pull an all nighter? I'm up because some fool is grinding up a tree stump nearby. Everything full speed ahead now. Back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I believe a part is They don’t want to hear negativity in a snow storm . Look at Bob’s post . He knows his stuff and like you said looks NW of you . Could shift a tad . Yes.....related to what I said. Its the elephant in the room....if you avoid it, he ends up sitting on your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I believe a part is They don’t want to hear negativity in a snow storm . Look at Bob’s post . He knows his stuff and like you said looks NW of you . Could shift a tad . His fear of subby is due to like arctic airmasses keeping the best forcing to his south. It's way too early too get cute with banding right now. My opinion is that overall I think he is in a decent spot. I'm thinking of the recent trends showing a better mid level look. It's way to early to talk about subby zones. We have no idea...hell the 12z HRRR tries to sleet here near 12z Thursday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes.....related to what I said. Its the elephant in the room....if you avoid it, he ends up sitting on your face. Those seem really hard to pinpoint, but historically they seem to affect some areas more than others. I expect to pound sand for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: My eyes will be looking at the 700mb heights. Need to watch where that subsidence zone is. You can see the differences in the models in where they place the snow bands. NAM I fell is too far N. The GFS is still too far S. The Ukie/RGEM/GGEM/Euro(lesser extent) are sort of in the middle. They bring that subsidence zone over the 495 belt W and N of BOS. Hopefully they are wrong and we see a more widespread precip shield with minimal breaks. I doubt they're wrong. I think we see a pretty uniform precip shield S of the Pike but not so pretty on either side of the fronto band north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: My eyes will be looking at the 700mb heights. Need to watch where that subsidence zone is. You can see the differences in the models in where they place the snow bands. NAM I fell is too far N. The GFS is still too far S. The Ukie/RGEM/GGEM/Euro(lesser extent) are sort of in the middle. They bring that subsidence zone over the 495 belt W and N of BOS. Hopefully they are wrong and we see a more widespread precip shield with minimal breaks. Thank you for acknowledging the subsidence elephant. I missed this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z Nam has a sharper trough and vort with higher heights out ahead of it @hr29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Those seem really hard to pinpoint, but historically they seem to affect some areas more than others. I expect to pound sand for a bit Boxing Day PTSD 11 years later. The subsidence storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: His fear of subby is due to like arctic airmasses keeping the best forcing to his south. It's way too early too get cute with banding right now. My opinion is that overall I think he is in a decent spot. I'm thinking of the recent trends showing a better mid level look. It's way to early to talk about subby zones. We have no idea...hell the 12z HRRR tries to sleet here near 12z Thursday lol. No it isn't. My fear of subby if mid level deformation to my NW working in concert with low level forcing to my se (owed to low level fronto (OES)) to pin relative subby hole in this region....and its not too early. Its been clear for days. OES signal to my se...and now a mid level signal to my NW....do the math....its okay, I won't get mad,...you can say it lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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