RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: These models are all over the place lol The gfs is. Everything else is pretty much within tight goalposts to the NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GEFS look north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Also the ambient surface pressure around this thing is a little bit higher than normal specially with that big dome sitting next door… So when you’re looking at 1000 mill bar low pressure core think 992 ~ in a more normal pressure distribution. In other words the winds may actually be stronger than is typical for a low pressure 1000 mb deep. The NAM grid has 30 knot sustained middle boundary layer flow coming into Logan with 1002mb underneath and I’m going oh -right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The gfs is. Everything else is pretty much within tight goalposts to the NW. ya......GFS will get a clue 12z Wed and it still won't be right.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: The chickens would not like that deformation. No they would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Northeast winter storm forecasting is just brutal. What a humbling profession. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ice1972 said: uncle? Probably 30 minutes roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: By 12z Thursday the left exit is south of Halifax Lol. Geez. Yeah I feel pretty confident the GFS is prematurely stretching this thing-...you know pulls the x-coordinate cuts into it velocity momentum. It’s got to borrow it from somewhere right? But reducing that mid-level momentum is definitely going to weaken that 700 mill bar surface underneath it and there we go - nooOO storm for you ONE YEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Seems like things are just becoming more unclear now not less. Dryslots, suppression, mixing all a possibility still. No bueno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'll take a hit of what GGEM is smoking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS way south, NAM way north and everything in between -- New York City is always sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Seems like things are just becoming more unclear now not less. Dryslots, suppression, mixing all a possibility still. No bueno. It’ll clear up by the weekend... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'll take a hit of what GGEM is smoking. Hybrid 70/30. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Seems like things are just becoming more unclear now not less. Dryslots, suppression, mixing all a possibility still. No bueno. You are spot on. As we get closer it becomes less clear! Although I think at this point decent totals south of pike with 6 inches at the pike, up to 12 down near 195. North of pike is the screw zone I think. 3-6 mass pike to NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Overall I think we have seen the potential for a slight NW jog on models today as we move closer. NW MA approves! H7 deform delight hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, JoeSnowBOS said: You are spot on. As we get closer it becomes less clear! Although I think at this point decent totals south of pike with 6 inches at the pike, up to 12 down near 195. North of pike is the screw zone I think. 3-6 mass pike to NH border I’ll take the over north of the pike. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, RDRY said: GFS way south, NAM way north and everything in between -- New York City is always sitting pretty. Not to often that can be said...but Don’t count those chickens just yet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take the over north of the pike. I'm finally starting to lean that way too. Not seeing a jackpot just seeing a few hours of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not to often that can be said...but Don’t count those chickens just yet... Why do they come in here to go on about how much snow THEY are gonna get? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm finally starting to lean that way too. Not seeing a jackpot just seeing a few hours of fun. I think you’ll get a few hours of ML goodies there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not to often that can be said...but Don’t count those chickens just yet... I'm in the Berks for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’ll stay up for Uncle, but no Euro for me tonight...it’ll be there in the morning for me to check out. Gotta get a lil more sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Overall I think we have seen the potential for a slight NW jog on models today as we move closer. NW MA approves! H7 deform delight hopefully. You always want to be on the n/nw fringe in southern stream systems. It doesn’t always pan out but high probability you get something. Jan 16 I was out of the game for days but ended up with 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll stay up for Uncle, but no Euro for me tonight...it’ll be there in the morning for me to check out. Gotta get a lil more sleep tonight. I’ll carry the water for you. Need to get up by 10:30 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I’ll carry the water for you. Need to get up by 10:30 though... Thank you Jerry...you’re the best. I’ll be up long before that, so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Why do they come in here to go on about how much snow THEY are gonna get? It's pure jealousy or envious or whatever you want to call it. Everyone's dream in that area is for a NJ/NYC/LI jackpot and all of SNE to get skunked due to years of overperforming here. The run in 2015 sealed it. I know this because I used to be the same exact way being from NNJ before I moved up here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Herpies Wow very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll stay up for Uncle, but no Euro for me tonight...it’ll be there in the morning for me to check out. Gotta get a lil more sleep tonight. Weenies don't sleep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That Ukie upper air looks more robust than 12z. Sfc looked a bit more tucked back west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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