Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That picture is a little too early to post, hour 72 or so is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s a crusher from PHilly to NYC verbatim. It did make steps to improve I thought, but yeah...s/w shredder as it moves overhead on the gfs. Hopefully it’s wrong. My biggest concern with the GFS is just how everything falls apart as it comes NE. Probably too much but I think a Euro/GFS blend makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Storm really falls apart on the GFS once it gets into SNE. That s/w goes into the shredder. Yeah GFS has been trying to speed up the rate of decay of the short wave… I’m sure you know this but most models see it as completely absorbed into the flow and losing identity all together by 48 hours leaving New England ... it’s just the GFS wants to do it right away with instant gratification-LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS will come on board maybe tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Storm really falls apart on the GFS once it gets into SNE. That s/w goes into the shredder. That mid level WCB, just scoots east after delivering for the Mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Does that really make sense though? Sure. It does on all of the models. That confluences just shears it apart with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sure. It does on all of the models. That confluences just shears it apart with time. Ok. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS will come on board maybe tomorrow. Or 0z Thursday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 You can see why the GFS sh*ts the bed with the storm in SNE. 700mb low and warm conveyorbelt just falls apart. Not sure it's right but definitely a caution flag IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 See… the GFS has a speed bias. It’s subtle but real. But a model that carries on with that sort of tendency would see this kind of shredding scenario at least excuse to do so - put it this way ...it’s like it “enables” its bias? I think so and I think that’s why it’s almost unable to slow that down. But we’re seeing as we’re getting closer now 60 hours out a subtle improvement; I think we’re going to see that more so going forward clicks towards the euro. I don’t know if it’s gonna go all the way to the NAM or anything like that crazy but - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: You can see why the GFS sh*ts the bed with the storm in SNE. 700mb low and warm conveyorbelt just falls apart. Not sure it's right but definitely a caution flag IMO. Contrast that with the Euro that actually develops a 700 mb low and gets those 50 knot WCB winds into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Contrast that with the Euro that actually develops a 700 mb low and gets those 50 knot WCB winds into SNE. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 WSW watch up for SE Mass. Nothing yet north of that. BOX riding the GFS/SE models, for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 CMC with a bump NW... looks a little more amped than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 00z GGEM is well NW of the 12z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yup Honestly between the two models though the old conceptual model of heavy snow along the -4C isotherm is pretty similar. Lays out over CT and RI and really doesn't push much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 These models are all over the place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Contrast that with the Euro that actually develops a 700 mb low and gets those 50 knot WCB winds into SNE. My guess is the 500 mb wind max dampens over top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 looks like the v16 took a personal day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Man that was a zonked GGEM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: These models are all over the place lol And they were all in agreement for the first 3 days, and way out in time. Ironic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Man that was a zonked GGEM run It didn't bite on the convection to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Deformed into CON. Nice CCB in srn areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 MUCH stronger winds on this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We have decent agreement with NAM the far NW amd gfs the far SE. Toss those 2 and write the forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 hours ago, CT Rain said: Yeah I think they were saying that as a reason that confidence is low. I think they changed it last year. They also got rid of Blizzard Watches Yes and no. The straight blizzard watch no longer exists, but we are able to insert code into a winter storm watch that will trigger the wording to say blizzard conditions possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We now have the CMC, RGEM, and the NAM 3k not biting on the convection to the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: My guess is the 500 mb wind max dampens over top? By 12z Thursday the left exit is south of Halifax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: It didn't bite on the convection to the east. The chickens would not like that deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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