Active mid December with multiple event potential

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Monday. You probably rain though

Maybe, or not!

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tamarack said:

I think GYX should look again.  I found four 12/25s with 6"+ (07, 08, 13, 17) and 4 others with 1-4", though that 4" year (2005) had zero by 12/26 as the Grinch stole it.  I assume that PWM measures depth at noon, or why 2002 shows zero for 12/25 - the 16" dump started early PM.  That also explains why the 12/25 storm (5") doesn't affect depth until the 26th.

Pretty sure “official” depth for the day is always measured at 12z for the first order sites. 

[TheBudMan]

Need Jerry to wake up and give us the muthafukkas for BOS. Can Thursday be double digits ?

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, TheBudMan said:

Need Jerry to wake up and give us the muthafukkas for BOS. Can Thursday be double digits ?

Certainly can be.

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, TheBudMan said:

Need Jerry to wake up and give us the muthafukkas for BOS. Can Thursday be double digits ?

00? Lol

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Maybe 1 to 3 for most

That's a big storm for us down here when comparing to last year's seasonal debacle..We take anything and be happy at this point...in the end I expect some white rain to start, icing up by the evening. Probably one of those evening rush hour issues 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

A lot of things could happen

In a vacuum, yes. But in this setup, ‘less’ can happen. See Will’s points. 

[JB_Wchstr]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In a vacuum, yes. But in this setup, ‘less’ can happen. See Will’s points. 

That’s fine and certainly true. Doesn’t mean less ‘will’ happen.  Weather is a gamble.  That’s what’s exciting about it I guess.  When you play the slots you know you’re likely gonna lose but you don’t go in expecting to lose or else you wouldn’t be there lol. 

[tamarack]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty sure “official” depth for the day is always measured at 12z for the first order sites. 

Good to know, though I'm still puzzled by the lack of change on 12/25/17, as my notes have the snowfall starting before 5 AM with 5" 7-noon; PWM should've had flakes before I did. 
And Frostbite had the goods faster than I could type.  

[moneypitmike]

48 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Severe Winter Storm Impact Index:

1.) Nuisance

2.) Significant

3.) Major

4.) Extreme

5.) Crippling

Nothing like quantitative assessment.

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

Hey at least it’s fun to....look at 

Next metfan will be posting individual member runs of the ensemble. It'll be like AccuWeather in 2007 here

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Good to know, though I'm still puzzled by the lack of change on 12/25/17, as my notes have the snowfall starting before 5 AM with 5" 7-noon; PWM should've had flakes before I did. 
And Frostbite had the goods faster than I could type.  

It was mostly after 12z.

PWM,2017-12-25 04:51,KPWM 250451Z 02010KT 10SM SCT027 OVC100 M05/M08 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP206 T10501083 400111050
PWM,2017-12-25 05:02,KPWM 250502Z AUTO 03011KT 10SM BKN027 OVC100 M05/M08 A3013 RMK AO2 T10501083
PWM,2017-12-25 05:51,KPWM 250551Z AUTO 02012KT 10SM OVC023 M06/M09 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP179 T10561089 11028 21056 58052
PWM,2017-12-25 06:51,KPWM 250651Z AUTO 03012KT 10SM OVC022 M06/M09 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP168 T10561089
PWM,2017-12-25 07:51,KPWM 250751Z AUTO 03013KT 9SM -SN OVC022 M06/M09 A2996 RMK AO2 SNB48 SLP146 P0000 T10611089
PWM,2017-12-25 08:51,KPWM 250851Z AUTO 04014G22KT 10SM OVC024 M06/M09 A2990 RMK AO2 SNE37 SLP126 P0001 60001 T10611094 58053
PWM,2017-12-25 09:43,KPWM 250943Z AUTO 04011KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC025 M07/M09 A2986 RMK AO2 SNB14 P0000 T10671094
PWM,2017-12-25 09:51,KPWM 250951Z 04013KT 2SM -SN OVC025 M07/M09 A2985 RMK AO2 SNB14 SLP110 P0000 T10671094
PWM,2017-12-25 10:09,KPWM 251009Z 02015KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC023 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0000 T10671089
PWM,2017-12-25 10:51,KPWM 251051Z 03014G24KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC028 M07/M09 A2977 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP082 P0001 T10721089
PWM,2017-12-25 11:51,KPWM 251151Z 03013G20KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW015 SCT020 OVC027 M07/M09 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP066 P0001 60003 70003 T10721094 11056 21072 58059
PWM,2017-12-25 12:51,KPWM 251251Z 02012G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN014 OVC026 M08/M09 A2962 RMK AO2 SLP031 P0003 T10781094
PWM,2017-12-25 12:53,KPWM 251253Z 02012G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN016 OVC026 M08/M09 A2961 RMK AO2 P0001 T10781094
PWM,2017-12-25 13:51,KPWM 251351Z 01014G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC015 M08/M11 A2956 RMK AO2 SLP012 P0002 T10831106
PWM,2017-12-25 14:51,KPWM 251451Z 34017G23KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV015 M09/M11 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 34032/1433 SLP994 P0003 60008 T10891106 56072
PWM,2017-12-25 15:51,KPWM 251551Z 33015G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M09/M11 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 34030/1527 SLP986 P0003 T10941106
PWM,2017-12-25 16:51,KPWM 251651Z 04013G20KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M06/M07 A2946 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP976 P0012 T10611072 $
PWM,2017-12-25 17:27,KPWM 251727Z 31012G26KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV010 M06/M07 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1705 P0005 T10561067 $
PWM,2017-12-25 17:51,KPWM 251751Z 30010KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV013 M05/M06 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1705 SLP994 P0007 60030 T10501061 11050 21094 55000 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:07,KPWM 251807Z 29009KT 1SM SN BR BKN018 OVC035 M05/M06 A2952 RMK AO2 P0001 T10501061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:12,KPWM 251812Z 29010KT 2SM SN BR BKN020 OVC035 M05/M06 A2953 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 T10501061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:14,KPWM 251814Z 28012KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW009 BKN020 OVC035 M04/M06 A2953 RMK AO2 P0001 T10441061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:51,KPWM 251851Z 24006KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 M04/M06 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP018 P0001 T10441061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 19:29,KPWM 251929Z 23006KT 10SM BKN045 OVC110 M04/M06 A2959 RMK AO2 SNE07 P0000 T10391056 $ 

 

[JC-CT]

16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Really? Posting the control of the ensembles? Good lord

You must be new here

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a lot of big hits up here based on the eps individual modeled snow depths at 144hr. We wait and let it play out. 

Don’t do it.

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Don’t do it.

I’m in the all or nothing camp. If it’s not going to be big then give me blue sky and SNE cirrus.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

I’m in the all or nothing camp. If it’s not going to be big then give me blue sky and SNE cirrus.

As they say, Go big or go home, I don’t see a lot of room up here.

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’m in the all or nothing camp. If it’s not going to be big then give me blue sky and SNE cirrus.

That’s cold.  Dry and cold lol. 

[PWMan]

Just now, dryslot said:

As they say, Go big or go home, I don’t see a lot of room up here.

I’d be very happy with a couple inches. Got almost completely shafted by last weekend’s system.

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was mostly after 12z.

PWM,2017-12-25 04:51,KPWM 250451Z 02010KT 10SM SCT027 OVC100 M05/M08 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP206 T10501083 400111050
PWM,2017-12-25 05:02,KPWM 250502Z AUTO 03011KT 10SM BKN027 OVC100 M05/M08 A3013 RMK AO2 T10501083
PWM,2017-12-25 05:51,KPWM 250551Z AUTO 02012KT 10SM OVC023 M06/M09 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP179 T10561089 11028 21056 58052
PWM,2017-12-25 06:51,KPWM 250651Z AUTO 03012KT 10SM OVC022 M06/M09 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP168 T10561089
PWM,2017-12-25 07:51,KPWM 250751Z AUTO 03013KT 9SM -SN OVC022 M06/M09 A2996 RMK AO2 SNB48 SLP146 P0000 T10611089
PWM,2017-12-25 08:51,KPWM 250851Z AUTO 04014G22KT 10SM OVC024 M06/M09 A2990 RMK AO2 SNE37 SLP126 P0001 60001 T10611094 58053
PWM,2017-12-25 09:43,KPWM 250943Z AUTO 04011KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC025 M07/M09 A2986 RMK AO2 SNB14 P0000 T10671094
PWM,2017-12-25 09:51,KPWM 250951Z 04013KT 2SM -SN OVC025 M07/M09 A2985 RMK AO2 SNB14 SLP110 P0000 T10671094
PWM,2017-12-25 10:09,KPWM 251009Z 02015KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC023 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0000 T10671089
PWM,2017-12-25 10:51,KPWM 251051Z 03014G24KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC028 M07/M09 A2977 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP082 P0001 T10721089
PWM,2017-12-25 11:51,KPWM 251151Z 03013G20KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW015 SCT020 OVC027 M07/M09 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP066 P0001 60003 70003 T10721094 11056 21072 58059
PWM,2017-12-25 12:51,KPWM 251251Z 02012G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN014 OVC026 M08/M09 A2962 RMK AO2 SLP031 P0003 T10781094
PWM,2017-12-25 12:53,KPWM 251253Z 02012G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN016 OVC026 M08/M09 A2961 RMK AO2 P0001 T10781094
PWM,2017-12-25 13:51,KPWM 251351Z 01014G19KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC015 M08/M11 A2956 RMK AO2 SLP012 P0002 T10831106
PWM,2017-12-25 14:51,KPWM 251451Z 34017G23KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV015 M09/M11 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 34032/1433 SLP994 P0003 60008 T10891106 56072
PWM,2017-12-25 15:51,KPWM 251551Z 33015G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M09/M11 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 34030/1527 SLP986 P0003 T10941106
PWM,2017-12-25 16:51,KPWM 251651Z 04013G20KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M06/M07 A2946 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP976 P0012 T10611072 $
PWM,2017-12-25 17:27,KPWM 251727Z 31012G26KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV010 M06/M07 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1705 P0005 T10561067 $
PWM,2017-12-25 17:51,KPWM 251751Z 30010KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV013 M05/M06 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1705 SLP994 P0007 60030 T10501061 11050 21094 55000 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:07,KPWM 251807Z 29009KT 1SM SN BR BKN018 OVC035 M05/M06 A2952 RMK AO2 P0001 T10501061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:12,KPWM 251812Z 29010KT 2SM SN BR BKN020 OVC035 M05/M06 A2953 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0001 T10501061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:14,KPWM 251814Z 28012KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW009 BKN020 OVC035 M04/M06 A2953 RMK AO2 P0001 T10441061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 18:51,KPWM 251851Z 24006KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 M04/M06 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP018 P0001 T10441061 $
PWM,2017-12-25 19:29,KPWM 251929Z 23006KT 10SM BKN045 OVC110 M04/M06 A2959 RMK AO2 SNE07 P0000 T10391056 $ 

 

That's odd - can't recall any other time I had accumulating snow from a significant all snow event before PWM.  The contrast to that was 1/2/1987.  PWM was reporting snow about 4 AM, and I waited all morning at the AUG office for first flakes, which didn't come until about 12:30 - 8+ hours difference?  (Of course when it came we went from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility in less than 60 seconds.)

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’m in the all or nothing camp. If it’s not going to be big then give me blue sky and SNE cirrus.

6-8” of arctic sand for you while Ray whines that he may only get 17” instead of 20” as he misses a mesoband by 2 miles. 

You know the drill. 

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Nope.  Our turn.  I speak for myself, Runnaway, Wolfie, Spanks, Easton+, 4 Seasons, Wiz...sorry if I left anyone out.

+1. It’s been years since we have gotten a big one down here. Obviously I’m spoiled by the last two decades now but all the recent bigger storms have been busts down here.  It’s been pretty rough since NEMO. Not getting my hopes up but the proper teleconnections and a cold high are already something we haven’t had with a storm in a long time.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM likes a couple inches south of the pike on Monday.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS slays.

Sweating bullets here on south coast. Too close for comfort for mixing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

+1. It’s been years since we have gotten a big one down here. Obviously I’m spoiled by the last two decades now but all the recent bigger storms have been busts down here.  It’s been pretty rough since NEMO. Not getting my hopes up but the proper teleconnections and a cold high are already something we haven’t had with a storm in a long time.

It would be nice to get a nyc to pwm crusher that gets almost everyone in the game. Unfortunately, someone will always be on the outside looking in. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, PWMan said:

I’d be very happy with a couple inches. Got almost completely shafted by last weekend’s system.

I think you would have a better shot then here right now, You wont have to worry about a mix or rain either.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be nice to get a nyc to pwm crusher that gets almost everyone in the game. Unfortunately, someone will always be on the outside looking in. 

Probably can count on one hand missing 3 fingers of when it snowed here and in DC.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

+1. It’s been years since we have gotten a big one down here. Obviously I’m spoiled by the last two decades now but all the recent bigger storms have been busts down here.  It’s been pretty rough since NEMO. Not getting my hopes up but the proper teleconnections and a cold high are already something we haven’t had with a storm in a long time.

Hey Addict, you must have done pretty well down that way in the ‘16 blizzard that hit NYC on south well.  I remember southern and SW area of CT doing quite well(over a foot).  
 

Up this way I was like the cut off. I received 8-10” from the ‘16 monster, but couldn’t quite get into the real big stuff.  And just north of here it dropped like a rock. 

[Cold Miser]

34 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Really? Posting the control of the ensembles? Good lord

What is a "control"? What does that mean here?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Probably can count on one hand missing 3 fingers of when it snowed here and in DC.

As long as you can grab gummies with two fingers, all is well. 

I think it’s happenned more than twice though, no? regardless I’m thinking nyc to pwm anyway, we couldn’t care less about dc snow.

[Fozz]

The GFS is now showing 18” here in RI.

I’m very used to telling myself that it’s just a model, and isn’t realistic to expect. Is this really happening??