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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Just now, CT Rain said:

12km NAM is beautiful for the QPF Queens. I do think it's overdone with such a wide swath of that kind of liquid? Seems fairly progressive and not that classic ML lows closing off and pivoting right under us?

It's a little weird to imagine this intense almost horizontal band moving NE across the state.

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10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

still the NAM so I'm not locking anything in

I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? 
I mean it has to be right in some cases right

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Just now, JoeSnowBOS said:

I would take it as he knows what he is talking about.  The NAM does come south.  It’s struggling with precip field but that will change and cut back as Eric alludes to.  

Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does.  And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote?  But whatever.  You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. 

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The 3k initially follows that convection to the east, but then lets it escape and relocates itself to the west.  Strange.

I saw that too. One nice thing we have, are cold temps in the conveyor belt. It may not pound after the heavy heavies leave, but decent temps still for snow flake production despite losing deep lift in the DGZ.

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2 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? 
I mean it has to be right in some cases right

for sure, it can be right, just folks here have seen it cave to other models up to 24hr before a storm, but has some friends like the RGEM.. so time will tell I guess.

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4 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? 
I mean it has to be right in some cases right

Verbatim, not really. It depends on how you know how to correct for its' bias. Meaning in terms of true snowfall and area coverage.

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. 

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. 

I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does.  And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote?  But whatever.  You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. 

Joe is sort of a Grinch with this storm.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. 

I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 

The Blizzard Watch was the Coolest Color - Neon Green!  

But Blizzard Warnings are of COURSE my Favorite feeling in life.  Being under that red.  

00z NAM = LFG    But it's the NAM.  

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This has always been precarious… I mean that’s a foregone conclusion and built in. I’m curious what Chris ( Occeanwx. ) thinks… He mentioned this 0 z cycle as crucially losing sensitivity issues related with being fully on board for the full cycles and shedding the old signals out

...remember we only need to flip a degree or two polarword and everybody gets cashed in. A goodly bit of the storms morphology has always had the look of dependency on I ts own in situ mechanics as described and discussed at length yesterday

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. 

I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 

I remember there was one issued I believe with January 05 too. I’ve seen it a few times over the years..but it was rare.  I think in December ’10 Boxing Day they issued a blizzard watch..

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