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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

EPS juicer than the op. So it looks like members aren’t all in with the blob.

I’m not really buying the blob idea. Maybe if a whole bunch of mesos start showing a weak occluded mess, then I’ll buy it more. I’m trying to think of a good analog for an H5 look like this that didn’t hit us hard. I can’t come up with one...doesn’t mean they don’t exist though but I haven’t found it. 

 

 

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Lol we had uncanny great agreement for so many runs all of Thursday, Friday And Saturday...And now that we are closer in, everything is going haywire?  WTF?   Those Euro ensembles still look great...I mean what is up with these Op runs? 
 

Supposed to have better agreement as we close in...this seems to be going the opposite way? 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not really buying the blob idea. Maybe if a whole bunch of mesos start showing a weak occluded mess, then I’ll buy it more. I’m trying to think of a good analog for an H5 look like this that didn’t hit us hard. I can’t come up with one...doesn’t mean they don’t exist though but I haven’t found it. 

 

 

If you can’t remember one then no super computer would.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If you can’t remember one then no super computer would.

Lol I forgot some dates. Esp if they were misses it’s easier. 

I’ll say the one time vividly recall a convective blob robbing he conveyor a bit was Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005. The forecast was for 8-12 and a massive blob of convection formed over LI and tracked over far SE Ma and the cape and Plymouth got like 13” in 3 hours out of it. But it was at the expense of the interior which was originally predicted to jackpot. We still did ok but we got like 6-7” instead of the bigger numbers. 

We tracked that one back on WWBB and the late messenger was all over that blob and predicting a huge SE MA positive bust. 

The upper air in that one though was far weaker with the vort and s/w and rounding a much deeper ULL in the lakes. So I don’t think it’s a good analog. The upper forcing was definitely weaker overall allowing convection to disrupt it easier. 

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This one has bust written all over it.  GFS is south and has been.  Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS.  Yet some models still have clown snow maps.  Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not”

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5 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

This one has bust written all over it.  GFS is south and has been.  Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS.  Yet some models still have clown snow maps.  Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not”

Beer 

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7 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

This one has bust written all over it.  GFS is south and has been.  Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS.  Yet some models still have clown snow maps.  Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not”

:rolleyes:

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12 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

This one has bust written all over it.  GFS is south and has been.  Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS.  Yet some models still have clown snow maps.  Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not”

What happened to you...you were pumped and all in like 3 days ago. 

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19 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

This one has bust written all over it.  GFS is south and has been.  Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS.  Yet some models still have clown snow maps.  Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not”

And the media has passed the point of no return in announcing what’s supposed to be ahead 

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