moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The 18z RGEM wasn't lured by the convection to the E. Continues the Dit-pIT-Ray screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well that's pretty freaking tucked lol A lot of weenie spread to the west there, but SREFs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: Further out yes but not as we get closer and closer Yes but we're still in eps time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: Further out yes but not as we get closer and closer Yes. Cutoff time is probably now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS juicer than the op. So it looks like members aren’t all in with the blob. I’m not really buying the blob idea. Maybe if a whole bunch of mesos start showing a weak occluded mess, then I’ll buy it more. I’m trying to think of a good analog for an H5 look like this that didn’t hit us hard. I can’t come up with one...doesn’t mean they don’t exist though but I haven’t found it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: well they wouldn't be the SREFs if they weren't. When you've lost those east, that's when you know you've REALLY lost it. PF will be posting one of them giving him the jack shortly. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: PF will be posting one of them giving him the jack shortly. If this follows the modeling progression for January 2016 then we will all be congratulating you and Pope on the jack by go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Lol we had uncanny great agreement for so many runs all of Thursday, Friday And Saturday...And now that we are closer in, everything is going haywire? WTF? Those Euro ensembles still look great...I mean what is up with these Op runs? Supposed to have better agreement as we close in...this seems to be going the opposite way? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Are 80% of jobs corporate jobs? Well BK and DD no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not really buying the blob idea. Maybe if a whole bunch of mesos start showing a weak occluded mess, then I’ll buy it more. I’m trying to think of a good analog for an H5 look like this that didn’t hit us hard. I can’t come up with one...doesn’t mean they don’t exist though but I haven’t found it. If you can’t remember one then no super computer would. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: If this follows the modeling progression for January 2016 then we will all be congratulating you and Pope on the jack by go time. And that will make the Pope utterly and totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: PF will be posting one of them giving him the jack shortly. Should be one of the AR members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: A lot of weenie spread to the west there, but SREFs. Ha yeah, Big time, I had to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Continues the Dit-pIT-Ray screw zone Take me down to the subsidence city where the snow is sand and the rates are shitty. 3 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If you can’t remember one then no super computer would. Lol I forgot some dates. Esp if they were misses it’s easier. I’ll say the one time vividly recall a convective blob robbing he conveyor a bit was Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005. The forecast was for 8-12 and a massive blob of convection formed over LI and tracked over far SE Ma and the cape and Plymouth got like 13” in 3 hours out of it. But it was at the expense of the interior which was originally predicted to jackpot. We still did ok but we got like 6-7” instead of the bigger numbers. We tracked that one back on WWBB and the late messenger was all over that blob and predicting a huge SE MA positive bust. The upper air in that one though was far weaker with the vort and s/w and rounding a much deeper ULL in the lakes. So I don’t think it’s a good analog. The upper forcing was definitely weaker overall allowing convection to disrupt it easier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HMIMBY? OK so maybe 8-12 in Worcester city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This one has bust written all over it. GFS is south and has been. Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS. Yet some models still have clown snow maps. Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not” 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM is an absurd weather model -- it had its 15 minutes of fame several winters back, and now resides in Snookyville. This low is not driving heavy precip halfway through Vermont and New Hampshire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, RDRY said: RGEM is an absurd weather model -- it had its 15 minutes of fame several winters back, and now resides in Snookyville. This low is not driving heavy precip halfway through Vermont and New Hampshire. 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 WPC 6” Probs have 70%> from Route 2 South and 80% + over interior SE mass/ Ri and SW CT 8” probs are 60%> from Pike south I like to watch how these trend up to event , they know their shiat Just don’t use them and expect much detail in elevation events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: This one has bust written all over it. GFS is south and has been. Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS. Yet some models still have clown snow maps. Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not” Beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: This one has bust written all over it. GFS is south and has been. Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS. Yet some models still have clown snow maps. Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer Sounds like he may be into some other white stuff? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer I want to think he's wrong..... But he ain't and you know it deep inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: FYI The NAM is running 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ^^Hacked by James 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sounds like he may be into some other white stuff? Confectionery Sugar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: This one has bust written all over it. GFS is south and has been. Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS. Yet some models still have clown snow maps. Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not” What happened to you...you were pumped and all in like 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The NAM is running Yeah, I have it at hr 16. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: This one has bust written all over it. GFS is south and has been. Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS. Yet some models still have clown snow maps. Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not” And the media has passed the point of no return in announcing what’s supposed to be ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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