HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 How is the IBM thingy doing? Deep Thought? Whatever it is called this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What a nightmare this is up and down the major terminals of the northeast. Tough ass forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If it’s legit then we should see the non-hydrostatic models start doing it even more than the hydrostatics as we get closer. So those will be the ones to watch. Deep convection like that will be handled worse by the hydrostatic models. The frenchie still looks good at 18z. Did you know that's the same model core as the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man Hi res slams south coast. Hi res Euro at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How is the IBM thingy doing? Deep Thought? Whatever it is called this week No, you mean deep throat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Preliminary thinking 8-12 here for BOS. I don't really have CT totals, but probably similar. Pope tosses you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Hi res Euro at 18z? Walt drag just posted a detailed breakdown in the NYC subforum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Kev just posted but here's our map. High impact event in CT. We feel pretty good about the forecast. Lower floor than some others in the event we do see that sharp cutoff in far northern CT, but currently thinking most end up in double digits. Nice to not have to worry about p-type for once. We see that sharp cutoff up into S-C NH, not CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man Hi res slams south coast. I have a feeling there's going to be a pretty narrow band along the max fgen zone that gets slammed. I doubt it's nearly as widespread as the QPF queens would believe. I could see something like the 18z Euro (narrow band of really good stuff) and less on either side. Not sure, of course, where that band is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HMIMBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a nightmare this is up and down the major terminals of the northeast. Tough ass forecast. That's why they pay you isn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If it’s legit then we should see the non-hydrostatic models start doing it even more than the hydrostatics as we get closer. So those will be the ones to watch. Deep convection like that will be handled worse by the hydrostatic models. I wonder if the s/w sort of damping out/getting sheared opens the door for non-hydrostatic stuff to start taking over with convection offshore. We'll have less and less forcing from DCVA as that s/w weakens over SNE but may see convection start running the show over the Gulf Stream and messing with the WCB and other stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This could wind up being one of the most tracked disappointments of the last couple of years. Who they hell started this thread so far out? They should be banned. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It looks like a lot of the Northeast has soil temperatures in the low 40s still. That's not super warm, but it doesn't help either. Usually shave off 20% from the model depictions if the ground is above 40 out here. I'd have to look but you guys were probably in the 60s in the 2009 storm before it happened, but this isn't as ideal as that setup either. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I wonder if the s/w sort of damping out/getting sheared opens the door for non-hydrostatic stuff to start taking over with convection offshore. We'll have less and less forcing from DCVA as that s/w weakens over SNE but may see convection start running the show over the Gulf Stream and messing with the WCB and other stuff. Yeah it’s possible. If it is, then the non-hydrostatic models should start showing this even more than regular global models ala euro. Still a bit out of their wheelhouse but the nonhydrostatics have been pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: This could wind up being one of the most tracked disappointments of the last couple of years. Who they hell started this thread so far out? They should be banned. You think there shouldn't be a thread for this? what in the actual hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, raindancewx said: It looks like a lot of the Northeast has soil temperatures in the low 40s still. That's not super warm, but it doesn't help either. Usually shave off 20% from the model depictions if the ground is above 40 out here. I'd have to look but you guys were probably in the 60s in the 2009 storm before it happened, but this isn't as ideal as that setup either. The airmass coming in is frigid. Skin sfc will be plenty cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, DFRI said: methinks BOX has a whole lot of mixing going on from GON through the Cape. Of course, that should be the starting consideration in any winter storm for that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, raindancewx said: It looks like a lot of the Northeast has soil temperatures in the low 40s still. That's not super warm, but it doesn't help either. Usually shave off 20% from the model depictions if the ground is above 40 out here. I'd have to look but you guys were probably in the 60s in the 2009 storm before it happened, but this isn't as ideal as that setup either. It started instantly accumulating from a few flakes today after half a day of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: This could wind up being one of the most tracked disappointments of the last couple of years. Who they hell started this thread so far out? They should be banned. We warned em...said wait til Saturday or Sunday, but nobody wanted to wait. So here we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, raindancewx said: It looks like a lot of the Northeast has soil temperatures in the low 40s still. That's not super warm, but it doesn't help either. Usually shave off 20% from the model depictions if the ground is above 40 out here. I'd have to look but you guys were probably in the 60s in the 2009 storm before it happened, but this isn't as ideal as that setup either. We don’t live in New Mexico. Snow sticks here 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, raindancewx said: It looks like a lot of the Northeast has soil temperatures in the low 40s still. That's not super warm, but it doesn't help either. Usually shave off 20% from the model depictions if the ground is above 40 out here. I'd have to look but you guys were probably in the 60s in the 2009 storm before it happened, but this isn't as ideal as that setup either. If the airmass isn’t garbage - and it won’t be - this matters exactly zero.....it will stick and begin accumulating immediately.....we’ve seen storms in October and Morch do this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This could wind up being one of the most tracked disappointments of the last couple of years. Who they hell started this thread so far out? They should be banned. I have found when convection is involved, So is disappointment, Just ask Wiz, ha ha. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well.. The 18z Euro kuchera looks good with the snowfall for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This could wind up being one of the most tracked disappointments of the last couple of years. Who they hell started this thread so far out? They should be banned. 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You think there shouldn't be a thread for this? what in the actual hell Read the post. How did today's installment of the multiple events play out? Hope springs eternal but the 18z EC leads to just a little bit less spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I will take my chances with this look My understanding of H5 vort maps isn't the best, but when I compared 12z at 72 hours to 18z at 66 hours, there seemed to be a clear south shift of the best forcing, and it seems to be due to a stronger high to the north. In case I am reading this wrong, what else should I look for to better understand the dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I have found when convection is involved, So is disappointment, Just ask Wiz, ha ha. At least you could ignore 100 of the 125 pages of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z EPS is literally unchanged 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If anything it's better but that's to be expected as we get closer and spread tightens. But it didn't budge an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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