JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. The NAM at least used to be pretty good at not falling for those, and it does have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Here is the comparison of 12Z and 18Z Euro runs. 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro. What is the point of having these other models then? Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS. He didn't actually mention the models that he was using to create the two maps... maybe it was a blend? Maybe it was one specific one vs a blend? I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. I will take my chances with this look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Fight , fight, fight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Coastal CT does well The Pope smirks.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That 18z Euro run may have had a convective feedback issue because @H5 it looked like it was going to be better then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Coastal CT does well What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Here is the comparison of 12Z and 18Z Euro runs. 10:1 ratio I’m headed to either Hershey or like Jim Thorpe. Gonna get mauled over there hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: The Pope smirks.... He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, qg_omega said: What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King It’s one run and a qpf tick Upper air features are fine. Idk man it could be worst you could be in Philly with hours and hours of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yikes, may need to back off on 6-10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 looks like the high presses a bit more than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 When the EPS brings snows to Maine’s, he’ll be forced to err his transgressions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it. The run smacks of seeing something gfs always did. And it’s so damn creepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: That exited stage right towards the convection to the east after it looked like it was going to be a better run. Same as GFS and gefs 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King Not yet but the Nam has also been going east. Feeling the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The Pope smirks.... Or he called in a favor with the Big Man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I will take my chances with this look Yeah I see that too, But I do think that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It’s almost as if the tuckier it gets the earlier it craps its load...so then the occulded pos gets kicked east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I believe this is Wxwatcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it. If he's right and he's certain---well.... 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Or he called in a favor with the Big Man. He knows Joe Biden? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I see that too, But I do think that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it. Can you share your totals you have out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Can you share your totals you have out? Preliminary thinking 8-12 here for BOS. I don't really have CT totals, but probably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: The run smacks of seeing something gfs always did. And it’s so damn creepy I guess...this evolution of gaining latitude to a point and then just splitting east has been the theme for a while. It's about how much latitude it gains. That run did it what, 40-50 miles south of 12z? I think that's still easily within the spread of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s almost as if the tuckier it gets the earlier it craps its load...so then the occulded pos gets kicked east. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Man Hi res slams south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If EPS remains similar to 12z, then we'll know the op was voodoo.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I see that too, But I do think that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it. If it’s legit then we should see the non-hydrostatic models start doing it even more than the hydrostatics as we get closer. So those will be the ones to watch. Deep convection like that will be handled worse by the hydrostatic models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 IF the only model who misses the region ends up right you have to tip your cap and call it my daddy. Pedro is on standby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man Hi res slams south coast. Go ooonnn.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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