dendrite Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m rated the FV3 a 0%. It’s not factored Even the NAVGEM is deforming from W MA to LWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 These damned new yorkers...always trying to steal my snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Serious arctic sand look north of the Pike, and especially north of Route 2. Lots of dry air and the lift is above the DGZ. This is going to stink for those that don't get into that fronto band. If I had to take a first stab at the forecast for here I'd probably go 2-5''. Like the look ORH and south though. I could see 8-14'' for a lot of CT of RI. As a rule I hate these weak, stretched out banana lows. Always seem like they have a big negative bust potential. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Oh i thought you were trying to steal his snow...................... lol. If he is in NYC then I have no idea why he would even care when all models give them a siggy snow event. Let us fight the gfs and the pope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. Page 122 and you just noticed! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: One point about that Harvey map... on tv he did show two possible outcomes (a GFS looking one and a ...Euro?ish one). He said he was not sure yet so he was leaving those wide amounts up for now but he would modify as it gets closer. Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro. What is the point of having these other models then? Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. Yeah seriously it's getting kind of annoying 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Technically hes always in here and a wicked weenie lol Brookyln is practically Bridgeport anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like they're following strong convection. It always seems like the GFS overdoes it with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Modfan2 said: Page 122 and you just noticed! Lol No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Even the NAVGEM is deforming from W MA to LWM. It’s frankly mind blowing that Jonn Paul Benedict is using it for his final call of 0 north of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro. What is the point of having these other models then? Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS. Yea and it’s rarely this or that. Usually some sort of a blend anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z Euro looks like it may be a tic or two NW of 12z, Stronger vort and better trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z Euro coming in a tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s frankly mind blowing that Jonn Paul Benedict is using it for his final call of 0 north of pike yeah not sure what's up with that. Route 2, I could see being concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 QPF queens won’t like this run. Not going crazy on the WCB but I think it’s better than 12z with all the features that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: QPF queens won’t like this run. Not going crazy on the WCB but I think it’s better than 12z with all the features that matter. yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. There's only a few problem child's. I'm crabby in my older age. Won't be long before a mod here speaks with me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: These damned new yorkers...always trying to steal my snow Out! Out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Serious arctic sand look north of the Pike, and especially north of Route 2. Lots of dry air and the lift is above the DGZ. This is going to stink for those that don't get into that fronto band. If I had to take a first stab at the forecast for here I'd probably go 2-5''. Like the look ORH and south though. I could see 8-14'' for a lot of CT of RI. North of the deform it'll be crap ratios...especially with dry air advecting into the low levels. Some of the models have some mid/upper level lift coming through on the tail end as the upper level system swings through so maybe we can do 1--3" of fluff in a best case scenario. I wouldn't totally rule out the deformation axis being near you either although odds favor it being more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: QPF queens won’t like this run. Not going crazy on the WCB but I think it’s better than 12z with all the features that matter. Scoots does not like. At least via text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Looks more tucked in and then shunted east. Almost gfs like with a weenie low chasing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Out! Out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Coastal CT does well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: QPF queens won’t like this run. Not going crazy on the WCB but I think it’s better than 12z with all the features that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It really does seem like there's genuine animosity towards SNE folks on certain forums. Some want the snow to stop north of New Haven, just for kicks. Would be lovely to see the storm trend north at the last minute and pull the rug out from under a few of them. Hehe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks more tucked in and then shunted east. Almost gfs like with a weenie low chasing convection. Look at how much bigger the convective blob out there than 12z. Much stronger. Seems like it disrupted the WCB maybe at the last second. I was happy with that trend otherwise. H5 deeper and better kink in isoheights as it passes over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That exited stage right towards the convection to the east after it looked like it was going to be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: It really does seem like there's genuine animosity towards SNE folks on certain forums. Some want the snow to stop north of New Haven, just for kicks. Would be lovely to see the storm trend north at the last minute and pull the rug out from under a few of them. Hehe Well they think a good SNE snowstorm is the same as a great lakes cutter. To them it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at how much bigger the convective blob out there than 12z. Much stronger. Seems like it disrupted the WCB maybe at the last second. I was happy with that trend otherwise. H5 deeper and better kink in isoheights as it passes over us. I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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