ROOSTA Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Pipeline filled with all kinds of goodies. Snow is serious business, NOT! I have to go back to school. Way off my game of years ago. Life kind of got in the way. Word choice and learn to chill. Its a friggin forum. Just being in the game is a bonus. Just the threat of double digit amounts ftw. I can't even buy a flake! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Lmao. You stop that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs sitting on the front porch, alone, of a house party while everyone is rocking inside topless. The pope calls...”don’t do it, don’t succumb to the temptation.” It will not go more north, where is the evidence. Gefs were se of the op... though precip was more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lol. Just put a sign on the lady that says “all the models except gfs” or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That map is not accurate for Cape Cod, Harwich got 15.5" Look closer, James. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Harvey just mentioned the storm "dumping" the load before it gets here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GEFS Gfs op. Gefs clearly se of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Didn’t see the gem 18z posted. Looks tucked like his kid brother Reggie. Would love to see that happen. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: GEFS Gfs op. Gefs clearly se of op. Skewed mean. Couple rouge way se members while everything else is nw of it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I could see a mix there during the height, especially if it moves north. Been saying it for daze.. good snows deep into NH and mixing issues SE coast. These big bombs always do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 You cannot pick and choose ensemble members, there is a reason it is called a MEAN. 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 My whole thing is I feel like I'm acting in double-standard if I continue to condone bigger snow amounts... My biggest contention was the data assimilation issue but that seems atoned for now more completely and ... much to chagrins it really hasn't mattered to the GFS and in fact, the other models are trying to collapse toward it - That's not refutable... Having said that, the only thing that holds out for me is that the wind max at 500 mb is running right up and over the edge of that polar/arctic air mass vertical slope and that's likely to draw a pretty significant up glide flow of air into it, because the restoring mass cannot come from the cold side as easily - path of least resistance... warm/theta-e air climbs the slope and that's pretty much why you see the deep navy blue band in the models that have more in the way of impact - I mean there's a logic to those solutions that I think the GFS could be missing here... As far as the other guidance collapsing ..that can be explained by the dampening of the over all wave ... causing a weaker low which would mean S track...fine as a correction considering the dampening motif is sort of late to the part the last day .. day and half of runs. Be that as it may, all models including the GFS run a 70 kt 500 mb jet core right over the polar dome and that simply has to cause isentropic lift and a snow burst I think - What a cluster f!!!!! god damn I'll be glad when this headache over and we "get to" start worrying about this one ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, wizard021 said: You cannot pick and choose ensemble members, there is a reason it is called a MEAN. Tucky tucky: blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/249287a1-d3a0-4c81-b8d1-4e15fe0bade5 loop the last 8-12 runs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, wizard021 said: You cannot pick and choose ensemble members, there is a reason it is called a MEAN. Median would be more accurate. That’s why the eps mean is less skewed by members. Eps has 51 members vs 15 for gfs. So eps mean can’t be tugged as hard by one outlandish member in any direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pope calling Harvey trash. That’s a sin. Maybe he's more like one of those naughty Middle Ages popes. Just throwing it out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Skewed mean. Couple rouge way se members while everything else is nw of it. It's a stretched low as shown on all the OP runs, so those ones just have the "lowest" low already out east. But I'm sure those members are elongated/double barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. And Chicagoans 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. Well when I was living in Des Moines, I needed to interact with the Great Lakes board for relevant interaction. even tho I am closer to the plains and that board technically was where I belonged, it just didn’t work that way hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This analog was circulating yesterday. Reality will look something much more like this. Where the gradient really sets up is difficult to know, but my best guess is right around I-90. Shift this roughly 50 miles north... Harvey has me in 2-6”. I’ll take pics of my overcast. I hope this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 One point about that Harvey map... on tv he did show two possible outcomes (a GFS looking one and a ...Euro?ish one). He said he was not sure yet so he was leaving those wide amounts up for now but he would modify as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are being invaded in our thread by new yorkers. It’s all good. I’ve weighted the gfs 30% percent so I’m obv not discounting it but some are putting their weenies on the line on the only piece practically missing our region while negating that it’s ticked nw past several runs. GL with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's a stretched low as shown on all the OP runs, so those ones just have the "lowest" low already out east. But I'm sure those members are elongated/double barrel idk...those 3 lows are all weak sauce and halfway to Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: Well when I was living in Des Moines, I needed to interact with the Great Lakes board for relevant interaction. even tho I am closer to the plains and that board technically was where I belonged, it just didn’t work that way hmm If you can bring reasonable analysis i don't care who comes in and post, But they did sub forums years back for a reason.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s all good. I’ve weighted the gfs 30% percent so I’m obv not discounting it but some are putting their weenies on the line on the only piece practically missing our region while negating that it’s ticked nw past several runs. GL with that. I’m rated the FV3 a 0%. It’s not factored 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I hope this verifies Go back to the NYC forum! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: If you can bring reasonable analysis i don't care who comes in and post, But they did sub forums years back for a reason.................... There’s obviously a huge reason yes.... which is why I think it’s weird that it turns out needing to mix like it does. As in, I don’t think there is much solution and it just rolls that way. I feel like maybe back then, and maybe it’s still this way, the plains states board was too huge of an area and Included places like New Mexico and was sparsely used? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s all good. I’ve weighted the gfs 30% percent so I’m obv not discounting it but some are putting their weenies on the line on the only piece practically missing our region while negating that it’s ticked nw past several runs. GL with that. Oh i thought you were trying to steal his snow...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...those 3 lows are all weak sauce and halfway to Bermuda. Looks like they're following strong convection. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Go back to the NYC forum! Lol Technically hes always in here and a wicked weenie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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