USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z GFS made a big correction. Remember that iffy trailing shortwave, well it phases with the lead shortwave, however near 40N: 65W. Again too far for anything meaningful, but if the trend is real, it will phase quicker in the next few cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs sitting on the front porch, alone, of a house party while everyone is rocking inside topless. The pope calls...”don’t do it, don’t succumb to the temptation.” Pope left the thread yesterday when realized was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Crazy that Philly is under a WSW but not Boston Some models actually have the mix line getting close/in Philly. Track is everything there for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Crazy that Philly is under a WSW but not Boston Confidence is low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope left the thread yesterday when realized was wrong Hiding in the vatican basement drunk off wine as the people are outside demanding he show his face to explain himself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 latitude is worse then longitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Beware amounts and areas of 15-20 that I'm seeing on facebook. It's too progressive borderline marxist 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upton all in I'm a little leery of these numbers being tossed around...... I want to see modeling tonight and tomorrow. We still don't really know how far north this cutoff might be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, Greg said: I agree, Harvey seems to get it. Not too high, not too low just about right with a chance of movement north or south depending on future runs. Good job Harvey. I’m sorry this is worthy of the trash. There’s going to be a really sharp gradient along I90 ish. It’s going to be a great storm south of there. More of a “feast or famine...” The global guidance continues to flag significant dry air/subsidence, to the north of I90. That’s why snowfall total maps are not jiving well with the apparent precip shield to the north. To me, that’s a giant red flag that what will we be seeing is a lot of radar echoes with little/nothing reaching the ground. That 4-8, 2-6 area is going to bust very high, unless there are big changes between now and go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Crazy that Philly is under a WSW but not Boston Philly gets it much earlier so it’s more warranted. BOS will have it tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Philly gets it much earlier so it’s more warranted. BOS will have it tomorrow morning Boston onset of precip isn't until 10pm earliest really. The timing makes sense for when watches are hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Gfs close to showing a Miller B bomb next Tuesday. I thought this winter was supposed to suck technically it’s a hit for coastal region I believe Almost a winter hurricane for the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’m sorry this is worthy of the trash. There’s going to be a really sharp gradient along I90 ish. It’s going to be a great storm south of there. More of a “feast or famine...” The global guidance continues to flag significant dry air, to the north of I90. That’s why snowfall total maps are not jiving well with the apparent precip shield to the north. To me, that’s a giant red flag that what will we be seeing is a lot of radar echoes with little/nothing reaching the ground. That 4-8, 2-6 area is going to bust very high, unless there are big changes between now and go time. Let’s see....you vs one of the most esteemed Mets I the country who has been forecasting this area >40 years who you called trash (forecast). Sorry Pope-you lose. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any calls? I think Harvey’s map this far out looks good. Might be a tight gradient, but given all the uncertainty that’s fine to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let’s see....you vs one of the most esteemed Mets I the country who has been forecasting this area >40 years who you called trash (forecast). Sorry Pope-you lose. Wishcast away my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Pope calling Harvey trash. That’s a sin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, jbenedet said: Wishcast away my friend. Beer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pope calling Harvey trash. That’s a sin. I called the forecast north of I-90 trash not him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Wishcast away my friend. I can-I don’t do this for a living. But your characterization of Harvey is not cool. You can disagree all you want but trash? You’re a holy man and better than this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I don't think the lower end of those ranges is that much of a stretch...north of I90. Seems like a safe call at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This analog was circulating yesterday. Reality will look something much more like this. Where the gradient really sets up is difficult to know, but my best guess is right around I-90. Shift this roughly 50 miles north... Harvey has me in 2-6”. I’ll take pics of my overcast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Congrats Maine 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 This whole thing is almost like a warm frontal wave.. . The QPF "walling" front load look is classic for isentropic burst, and then the CCB is weak sauce, ...followed by storm evac with almost nill backside CAA ... Thicknesses are higher behind the system than at onset - but ...still low enough that should the lagging trough and wind maxima passing underneath need-require easterly anomalies .... blah blah ongoing under-the-radar grits and flurries perhaps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This analog was circulating yesterday. Reality will look something much more like this. Where the gradient really sets up is difficult to know, but my best guess is right around I-90. Shift this roughly 50 miles north... Harvey has me in 2-6”. I’ll take pics of my overcast. That map is not accurate for Cape Cod, Harwich got 15.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I guess on Thursday will have to see whether there’s white smoke coming up from the chimney in the Vatican 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let’s see....you vs one of the most esteemed Mets I the country who has been forecasting this area >40 years who you called trash (forecast). Sorry Pope-you lose. 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Wishcast away my friend. Lets behonest, Harvey could easily be wrong, but it's a first guess map. This is the same as those over analyzing Ray's first map. And final point... Yes Mr pope... Harvey always seems to pull every forecast so it's tough to go against him. Hardly wishcast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Lets behonest, Harvey could easily be wrong, but it's a first guess map. This is the same as those over analyzing Ray's first map. And final point... Yes Mr pope... Harvey always seems to pull every forecast so it's tough to go against him. Hardly wishcast You’re from Southie- be careful what you say to Papi! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: latitude is worse then longitude And 50* ocean in your basement is worse than latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: And 50* ocean in your basement is worse than latitude. Yeah I could see a mix there during the height, especially if it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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