mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 clearly not a good series of runs for cne nne crowd. my hope is reduced as are my expectations. I have to remind myself it is monday afternoon and the storm starts wed late afternoon down in sne. still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I wasn’t here but wasn’t BOS supposed to be whiffed and got 13 inches? I remember this storm very well. Elliot Abrams was on WHDH radio insisting the storm would still miss Boston even at its height. Woke up in the morning to 14/15 inches in Dedham. Initial forecast was a trace to an inch or too. Outside of my college days, biggest bust I ever saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WPC map is quite well northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ha ! Nice screw zone from my house to Ray's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: For most of BOX's CWA start time is still a bit beyond 48 hours, hence no watches yet That makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM is like 12-16” we take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 For those on the northern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Ha ! Nice screw zone from my house to Ray's that looks like the 700mb RH chart from the EC that someone put up a couple of hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: RGEM is like 12-16” we take If I were where you are, I'd feel very safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: RGEM is like 12-16” we take 9-11" here. no problem for me either... wonder if I get into some of that OES, been years since that happened around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So in my mind something like a Reggie track is sort of what I envisioned when I look at the H5 stuff. A lot of the guidance shunted it east. I know why it did....but that was always sort of what I envisioned. Reggie caveats apply naturally this far out. That’s sort of a balance between lows feeding off of PVA and baroclinic processes in my mind, but I’m also not running complex atmospheric dynamics equations in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too. Damn, 5" on the low end? Twist the knife! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too. Nice. Pretty much what I would do if I new how to virtually paint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Damn, 5" on the low end? Twist the knife! also trying to account for subsidence b/c there will definitely be subsidence zone in the vicinity of where the CCB tracks. Once I'm more confident in CCB and where that traverses this will be altered a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Damn, 5" on the low end? Twist the knife! That will change but the S Coast is always in danger if this tucks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z GFS may finally get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: For most of BOX's CWA start time is still a bit beyond 48 hours, hence no watches yet There's actually no time limit anymore on the watches... just 50% confidence of reaching the criteria. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, CT Rain said: There's actually no time limit anymore on the watches... just 50% confidence of reaching the criteria. didn't realize that. Upton referenced 48 hours in their earlier discussion, so I just assumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: For those on the northern fringe We fringe. I could see the cutoff being even sharper than that. Should make for some fun radar-watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 ughhh this is beautiful. but just imagine the subsidence hell on either side of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said: didn't realize that. Upton referenced 48 hours in their earlier discussion, so I just assumed. Yeah I think they were saying that as a reason that confidence is low. I think they changed it last year. They also got rid of Blizzard Watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GFS may finally get a clue. May shoot it straight east though chasing that blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GFS may finally get a clue. ...or not might be it's worst run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Ha ! Nice screw zone from my house to Ray's Lol. Add me to that screw zone. And the Rev for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said: ...or not It was a couple tics NW of 12z, Trough was sharper a few miles north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Barely better.... agonizing trying to get it there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Heh. Baby steps on the GFS. That's just how it rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Barely better.... agonizing trying to get it there Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 barely even develops a closed H7 low lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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