Active mid December with multiple event potential

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, klw said:

It bumped me from about .03 to about .11.  The trend is my friend!

Saved by ratios!!!

[Logan11]

22 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

just got back from errands.. EURO bumped south, waiting for EPS .. SREF's should be out soon

The 6z/18z it bumps ALB to rte 2 back into a good snowstorm.  0Z and 12Z it pushes it back south.  That's been the pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Side by side 00Z vs. 12Z qpf on the EC.

Biggest change was cutting the JP are in SW CT....actually increased here a hair.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just out of curiosity, where in Raynham?

S Corner of Robinson Street. Not far from the Dog track. Didn't matter much being on N side of town at all in R/S lines or Coastal fronts. I use to grow up wishing my Parents bought 5 miles NW in  Easton 

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Actually i was serious haha , I don't want to see it. I come from that SE mass area and i do like when they cash in. 

As Will said thou a 1/5 chance of a South shift is still a significant chance.  

The Euro has been steadfast given the time frame, that the northern extent of the heavy stuff will be between the MA border and approx I84. Because that's where the people live, pretty small differences have significant implications for a lot of the board. But it's never showed a big hit north of the border, and it's never showed a virtual whiff like the GFS. Its current prog is a pretty good average of where it's been for 3 days.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Look off the top of my head, various nor'easters like Jan 15, Jan 05, DEC 04, FEB 13, JAN 16, were all forecasted at some point within this time range to dampen out, or be suppressed to the south of the region for various reasons.  Not one unique reason was the cause for every event.  However, there were causes for concern.  When the EURO over amped the Jan 15 storm 48 hours out, everyone jumped on its bandwagon and I kept saying Cape Cod will not rain because the pattern screams east.  I am saying from the experiences I have seen over the last ten years alone, the ones that do the most swinging back and forth seem to produce the most snows.  Jan Bomb Cyclone of 2018 the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2017, these are more types were the swinging was clear.  The big one's always swing, except the only real case against, was the Super Storm of 1993.

January 2015 was not seen until d3-4 and never forecasted to dampen by multiple models.   January 05 the euro was locked and loaded d7 in but it trended north in the final 2 days.  December 2004 had no major SNE storms other than the local Boxing Day 10-12 inch event from a hook and latter (no not ladder!).  February 2013 euro was locked and loaded for 7 days while gfs flailed around.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT. Ray back in his seat in back of bus after bailing thru emergency exit 

I never bailed on anything...I guessed 12z EPS would tic s...what is the big deal?

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I saw that. So the “about to be defunct” GFS is the one not agreeing with any other guidance. 

It's always struggled with dynamic storms.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Punctuation Awakening. Rise of the exclamation points. 

You can buy it on Amazon for $2.38

[Henry's Weather]

37 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Unfortunate that we have to go back to 0z, but the new GFS is firmly in the latter camp.

where to find?

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

where to find?

tropical tidbits has it

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, JC-CT said:

tropical tidbits has it

thats still 0z Dec 13th

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

thats still 0z Dec 13th

oh snap so it is

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

thats still 0z Dec 13th

It only runs at 00z right now...and intermittently.

[JC-CT]

Is it always a full day behind?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, highways1 said:

Yeah I see this being a big issue in the last couple of cycles on some of the guidance. I thought the s/w looked better through about hr 60 or so on the Euro vs 0z (haven't seen 6z) but there's a bit more confluence to the NE as well as that system slamming into the PAC NW which wasn't there a couple of days ago. Combined they lead to it getting stretched an then damped out pretty quick afterwards.

Here...I'll help elucidate the point ... both really, yours and my previous re the higher degree of morphology of flow structures in these Neptunian patterns...

Here is the present 12z, 60-hour GFS' 500 mb set up ... courtesy of Tropical Tidbits compared to 'Prev' going back 12 or 14 some odd clicks... note these difference back then, to what has emerged since and is being modeled on this 12z version for that particular time - pretty clear what's f*ed this up for us good and proper:

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The storms like DEC 2010 where the band brought a foot of snow to the eastern half of Cape Cod the Monday before the Boxing Day.  There are plenty of examples of shortwaves being dampened too quickly, can I name every situation, no I can't.  However, that does not mean I am spewing crap off the top of my head.  Every situation is different, but today's storm could be a signal that the pattern is more favored to amplification than models would indicate.  yesterday the storm for today was forecasted to bring a band quickly through the Cape and then offshore, however, judging by radar, that band is aimed right at the Cape and Islands and is not moving until the backside slides through, currently over western CT.  Lean towards amplification.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here...I'll help elucidate the point ... both really, yours and my previous re the higher degree of morphology of flow structures in these Neptunian patterns...

Here is the present 12z, 60-hour GFS' 500 mb set up ... courtesy of Tropical Tidbits compared to 'Prev' going back 12 or 14 some odd clicks... note these difference back then, to what has emerged since and is being modeled on this 12z version for that particular time - pretty clear what's f*ed this up for us good and proper:

Yeah but look at the CMC - it's even stronger.

[IowaStorm05]

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The storms like DEC 2010 where the band brought a foot of snow to the eastern half of Cape Cod the Monday before the Boxing Day.  There are plenty of examples of shortwaves being dampened too quickly, can I name every situation, no I can't.  However, that does not mean I am spewing crap off the top of my head.  Every situation is different, but today's storm could be a signal that the pattern is more favored to amplification than models would indicate.  yesterday the storm for today was forecasted to bring a band quickly through the Cape and then offshore, however, judging by radar, that band is aimed right at the Cape and Islands and is not moving until the backside slides through, currently over western CT.  Lean towards amplification.

A call for a quick inch or two of snow in northern CT was made as well... but it’s been a rainy mix with steady 35-36 degrees. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

A call for a quick inch or two of snow in northern CT was made as well... but it’s been a rainy mix with steady 35-36 degrees. 

Perhaps leaning towards a more amped, westward leaning pattern!

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The storms like DEC 2010 where the band brought a foot of snow to the eastern half of Cape Cod the Monday before the Boxing Day.  There are plenty of examples of shortwaves being dampened too quickly, can I name every situation, no I can't.  However, that does not mean I am spewing crap off the top of my head.  Every situation is different, but today's storm could be a signal that the pattern is more favored to amplification than models would indicate.  yesterday the storm for today was forecasted to bring a band quickly through the Cape and then offshore, however, judging by radar, that band is aimed right at the Cape and Islands and is not moving until the backside slides through, currently over western CT.  Lean towards amplification.

With every 2020 model doing it I would avoid counting on the Hail Mary from your own 35 yard line with 1 second left 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, weathafella said:

With every 2020 model doing it I would avoid counting on the Hail Mary from your own 35 yard line with 1 second left 

Every model doing what exactly?

[JC-CT]

Just now, JC-CT said:

This was the 12/10 0z GFS

Nevermind I see the fuzzy 6 now... 12/10 06z GFS

[TalcottWx]

I wonder what Harvey is thinking 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I wonder what Harvey is thinking 

I wonder what Ryan is thinking.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I wonder what Harvey is thinking 

Good point!  We’ll know later today I guess but I don’t he’ll commit until tomorrow.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah but look at the CMC - it's even stronger.

Not sure what you mean - what is?

The lead wave nearing the upper MA there is not nearly the same size and presentation as it was days ago, and that's the point  - the following wave over the MV is shortening the wave lengths and compressing the field and is a detriment and is negatively interfering - same interference pattern... may vary in details, the the essence is still the same. 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Nevermind I see the fuzzy 6 now... 12/10 06z GFS

Just to compare, here is the 0z 12/10 Euro op:

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what you mean - what is?

The lead wave nearing the upper MA there is not nearly the same size and presentation as it was days ago, and that's the point  - the following wave om the MV is shortening the wave lengths and compressing the field and is a detriment and is negatively interfering - same interference pattern... may vary in details, the the essence is still the same. 

Tip remember the Blizzard of Jan 15 and the Boxing Day 2010?  Both storms a trailing shortwave was forecasted to interfere with the lead shortwave in the overall long wave trough.  The JAN 15 storm was forecasted by models seven days in advance, they lost it within the 4-6 day window and brought it back within 72 hours as the EURO caught onto first.  The question was the interaction between the lead and trailing shortwaves.  The 12z GFS today has improved the western Rockies ridging heights, but the shortwave is already entering the backside of the long wave trough.  Again, I am not sold in either direction.  There are three clear signs that make sense...1.) strong presence of arctic air in place and locked in by a strong -NAO block in Greenland and Iceland, and 50/50 low, 2.) there is a storm present and a lot of moisture involved, 3.) someone will see over 15" of snow, questions become placement of the track of the low and eventual H5 dynamics as the system passes 75w.  Again, there will be a strong gradient in the precipitation shield.  Someone will see deformation bands, someone will have a long duration event, and OES will prolong the event!

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what you mean - what is?

The lead wave nearing the upper MA there is not nearly the same size and presentation as it was days ago, and that's the point  - the following wave over the MV is shortening the wave lengths and compressing the field and is a detriment and is negatively interfering - same interference pattern... may vary in details, the the essence is still the same. 

I was just saying that the existence of that feature doesn't explain the GFS' handling of cyclogenesis compared to other models that are further north. I agree that look from the 12/10 06z run was more dynamic, but it also resulted verbatim in a rainstorm east of 91.