STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You guys might wilt when a model doesn't show what you want in your backyard, but I don't sway every run that changes its ideas. I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. This storm should produce a foot plus south of the Pike, southwest of BOS. Plymouth should see 16"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: looking forward to seeing watches get hoisted soon. It feels like it's been forever since I've been under a watch and had relatively high confidence in it actually verifying. 653 days to be exact. 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh we're in great shape here. Gotta watch that northern edge though. Our first call is likely to be 8-16". Probably going to do a second call tomorrow morning afternoon ish and then a final call Wednesday AM. Still like my call of 12-20 across CT atm. Still 60hrs to go from the 12Z cycle. Lots can change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 40 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I like it, but way too bullish IMO. 8-14" south of a HFD PVD line What is your reason for thinking anyone north of Hartford and PVD will get less than 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, PWMan said: I can't see the Euro, but it looked like the last run of the GFS lost the Christmas cutter. Still a mild-up, but no wound-up rainer. There are a couple shown a few days later, but that's la-la land. Mild up keeps dying too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Without looking info up....name 5 times Why do I have to answer your question? Would you answer mine and tell me why you give up on a storm so quickly? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Being Near the pike (maybe 1-2 miles south) I’m optimistic for a nice dumping. Being 2 miles north of the Pike I'm not optimistic. I've got from mega hit thoughts yesterday morning to now hopefully hitting warning criteria. Of course if the Ukie were right....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Look, the models want to close off at H85 and H7 and the H5 level almost closes off on the GFS. Other models close off at H5! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Side by side 00Z vs. 12Z qpf on the EC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Look, the models want to close off at H85 and H7 and the H5 level almost closes off on the GFS. Other models close off at H5! Punctuation Awakening. Rise of the exclamation points. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Forecasted slowly starting to introduce talk of heavy stuff missing massaxhusetts forecast area with maybe southern areas getting decent snow. This has bust written all over it when the GFS pivoted and kept consistent last 2 days . Wow - EURO looks likely that it was taken to school. Still need to see what happens but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why do I have to answer your question? Would you answer mine and tell me why you give up on a storm so quickly? You are the one who wrote: I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. Once again I ask...name 5 times...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Punctuation Awakening. Rise of the exclamation points. LOL!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: H7/H85 look pretty good on the euro. I’ll be surprised with such a sharp cutoff I dunno, I think the cut-off is going to be pretty sharp wherever it happens. Location of the gradient can easily change, but with that stout high to the north and a lot of cold/dry surface air lodged in the lowest few thousand feet, I think synoptically it makes sense that it cuts off pretty quickly on the north side. I've got plenty of experience, lol. You get those half evaporated small dry flakes that see their arms shrunk in the lowest few thousand feet while it's ripping good flakes up at 4,000ft+. That's a pretty stout surface high. Mid-level lift will be constantly fighting on the northern side with dry air trying to bleed in from the north. Best guess is there's a strong band somewhere near the northern gradient and then north of that band totals just plummet. Where that is TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Side by side 00Z vs. 12Z qpf on the EC. Yeah the problem was 6z was substantially more north than either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS is still dam good. Even with a slight SE shift on the nrn edge, really goes to town over CT RI and into MA up to and north of pike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Look, the models want to close off at H85 and H7 and the H5 level almost closes off on the GFS. Other models close off at H5! Actually they don't show a closed off 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I dunno, I think the cut-off is going to be pretty sharp wherever it happens. Maybe the location changes but with that stout high to the north and a lot of cold/dry surface air lodged in the lowest few thousand feet, I think synoptically it makes sense that it cuts off pretty quickly on the north side. I've got plenty of experience, lol. You get those half evaporated small dry flakes that see their arms shrunk in the lowest few thousand feet while it's ripping good flakes up at 4,000ft+. That's a pretty stout surface high. the cut off is real. Maybe it will sink south 50 miles and be on the S Coast and we can see the S of Pike crew Melt down. I don't want to see this for the record lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: the cut off is real. Maybe it will sink south 50 miles and be on the S Coast and we can see the S of Pike crew Melt down. I don't want to see this for the record lol. And I would hate to win the lottery because I want to stay true to my roots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: the cut off is real. Maybe it will sink south 50 miles and be on the S Coast and we can see the S of Pike crew Melt down. I don't want to see this for the record lol. Feelings aren’t facts. Feelings aren’t facts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS looks OK if not better than 6Z I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You are the one who wrote: I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. Once again I ask...name 5 times...... Look off the top of my head, various nor'easters like Jan 15, Jan 05, DEC 04, FEB 13, JAN 16, were all forecasted at some point within this time range to dampen out, or be suppressed to the south of the region for various reasons. Not one unique reason was the cause for every event. However, there were causes for concern. When the EURO over amped the Jan 15 storm 48 hours out, everyone jumped on its bandwagon and I kept saying Cape Cod will not rain because the pattern screams east. I am saying from the experiences I have seen over the last ten years alone, the ones that do the most swinging back and forth seem to produce the most snows. Jan Bomb Cyclone of 2018 the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2017, these are more types were the swinging was clear. The big one's always swing, except the only real case against, was the Super Storm of 1993. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: EPS looks OK if not better than 6Z I think AWT. Ray back in his seat in back of bus after bailing thru emergency exit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 For anthropomorphic kicks and giggles ... ... in a way it would be poetic justice in the event of a GFS coup - We spent the better part of a month recently, clearly in outcry over the apparent decay in dependability of the operational Euro model.. How it 'just wasn't the same anymore' this, or it's been 'wretched' that ... I admit, I engaged in some of that myself. In fact I still argue it wasn't very good in the tropics by actual proven empirical data/verification .. Even in this thread, when the GFS was huge the other day, wasn't the Euro less leading that run? If we go back, I'm pretty sure that huge GFS solution ...what was that 7.. 8 cycles ago now, it had like 25" inches in the interior. Yeah, Saturday's 18z ...etc..etc... I think the Euro was less and I recall some posters ridiculing the Euro in that same mantra... There's always hyperbole - yes yes ...of course. But, there was more than than mere expression a month ago when/where there was palpable deriding in a culture of doubt over the Euro ... So now, we sans the GFS in outcry ...and have to eat shit and accept a the Euro because it has more - "while" the Euro ticks S... ho man - that's delicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Know what'd be somethin' ? What if this thing ends up actually low end/Advisory ... and while licking prognostic wounds and dodging the usual assortment of subversive sour-grape motivated trolling practices... people are distracted from seeing the next wave becoming substantive. That latter wave is quite coherently interfering badly with this thing and has been getting more so annoying in that regard.. Maybe as it comes in to the Br. Col coast, 'magine if it ends up coming in hugely powerful...? Shit..probably what happens is this wave ends up 4-6" ( not bad - won't complain...) but it'll sweep the testosterone seaward so the next one just wants to go to sleep... And we get one of those "Miller D" - dry Nor'easters ... otherwise known as "coastal Dunce storm" ... 980 mb 70 naut Mi SE ACK with flurries all around it ... You know, that ICON model does show another cyclogen over the ocean between Hatteras and Bermuda toward Friday because of this, which is a correction toward more of that... See, jokes aside ..this fast progressive stuff is also highly mutable and you can get these morphologies seemingly out of nowhere - hence the lower deterministic value when one is suffering this pattern. The whole week still could be a work in progress.. I'm not predicting anything just sayn' Yeah I see this being a big issue in the last couple of cycles on some of the guidance. I thought the s/w looked better through about hr 60 or so on the Euro vs 0z (haven't seen 6z) but there's a bit more confluence to the NE as well as that system slamming into the PAC NW which wasn't there a couple of days ago. Combined, they lead to it getting stretched an then damped out pretty quick afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: And I would hate to win the lottery because I want to stay true to my roots. And when you do, you shall purchase the materials to build a small cabin high in a random mountain range of eastern Nevada, experience lots of good moderate snow events. You shall stock years worth of canned goods and do SETI. Stay out of Florida and Hollywood 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: And I would hate to win the lottery because I want to stay true to my roots. Actually i was serious haha , I don't want to see it. I come from that SE mass area and i do like when they cash in. As Will said thou a 1/5 chance of a South shift is still a significant chance and there is a stiff cut off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah the problem was 6z was substantially more north than either. That's true. But i've always liked to compare the 00z and 12z runs as they have new upper air data to work with. A couple years ago we wouldn't have even had the 6Z (or 18Z) to even look at. Here's the 6Z run for comparison. I'm out for now, see yall later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Unfortunate that we have to go back to 0z, but the new GFS is firmly in the latter camp. I saw that. So the “about to be defunct” GFS is the one not agreeing with any other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Actually i was serious haha , I don't want to see it. I come from that SE mass area and i do like when they cash in. As Will said thou a 1/5 chance of a South shift is still a significant chance. Just out of curiosity, where in Raynham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Side by side 00Z vs. 12Z qpf on the EC. It bumped me from about .03 to about .11. The trend is my friend! (unless we include the 06Z) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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