weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Leaving the flight. TBH 8-12" of snow isn't worth the additional hassle, so will take my chances! Well we’ll be driving to Chicago next week so order up a cutter around 12/25-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Well we’ll be driving to Chicago next week so order up a cutter around 12/25-30. Always a great bet for xmas week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Well we’ll be driving to Chicago next week so order up a cutter around 12/25-30. The way the past couple years have been going, you may want to skip Chicagoland and keep driving to Madison, WI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Being Near the pike (maybe 1-2 miles south) I’m optimistic for a nice dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Just catching up on 12z stuff after being on road all morning. I see the GFS is still clueless. Euro OP went a hair south but still have the zonked NAM and the Ukmet/Rgem/GGEM in between. Unfortunate that we have to go back to 0z, but the new GFS is firmly in the latter camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe...just several events in a row of some of the lowest totals around. Tiresome. No way you are out of this yet. Good bands often extend more leftward than modeled. You still have the Ukie going for you, and 60 hours of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Being Near the pike (maybe 1-2 miles south) I’m optimistic for a mice dumping. get a cat 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s see what EPS does. I’d bet dollars to weenies they are north overall of op I think it will be a bit s of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s see what EPS does. I’d bet dollars to weenies they are north overall of op Another run or 2 and we hand the baton to the OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: The way the past couple years have been going, you may want to skip Chicagoland and keep driving to Madison, WI! I need to get back to Greenhouse...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Know what'd be somethin' ? What if this thing ends up actually low end/Advisory ... and while licking prognostic wounds and dodging the usual assortment of subversive sour-grape motivated trolling practices... people are distracted from seeing the next wave becoming substantive. That latter wave is quite coherently interfering badly with this thing and has been getting more so annoying in that regard.. Maybe as it comes in to the Br. Col coast, 'magine if it ends up coming in hugely powerful...? Shit..probably what happens is this wave ends up 4-6" ( not bad - won't complain...) but it'll sweep the testosterone seaward so the next one just wants to go to sleep... And we get one of those "Miller D" - dry Nor'easters ... otherwise known as "coastal Dunce storm" ... 980 mb 70 naut Mi SE ACK with flurries all around it ... You know, that ICON model does show another cyclogen over the ocean between Hatteras and Bermuda toward Friday because of this, which is a correction toward more of that... See, jokes aside ..this fast progressive stuff is also highly mutable and you can get these morphologies seemingly out of nowhere - hence the lower deterministic value when one is suffering this pattern. The whole week still could be a work in progress.. I'm not predicting anything just sayn' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Most of CT has been very good in every run..except the GFS. Ya that map is excellent for most of CT. 10:1 too. I would bet on better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Do it all again Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: get a cat Damn...couldn’t edit fast enough! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: No way you are out of this yet. Good bands often extend more leftward than modeled. You still have the Ukie going for you, and 60 hours of time. As long as we don't have wave spacing issues, this should bump back....but need too see how much more of a comp we have w GFS first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I am not buying the dampening shortwave as it moves northeast underneath Long Island. That just does not sit well with me and we could see in the last 48 hours that the trend is for a stronger shortwave as it passes 40N and 75W. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Might not even need to use the snowblower for this one in my area... just a leaf blower would do for 3-4" of feathers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not buying the dampening shortwave as it moves northeast underneath Long Island. That just does not sit well with me and we could see in the last 48 hours that the trend is for a stronger shortwave as it passes 40N and 75W. email BOX mention your credentials 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mothman said: Do it all again Christmas? I can't see the Euro, but it looked like the last run of the GFS lost the Christmas cutter. Still a mild-up, but no wound-up rainer. There are a couple shown a few days later, but that's la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not buying the dampening shortwave as it moves northeast underneath Long Island. That just does not sit well with me and we could see in the last 48 hours that the trend is for a stronger shortwave as it passes 40N and 75W. It buy it, unless the timing of things changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: email BOX mention your credentials Him and winterwolf can sign a joint statement of dissent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Might not even need to use the snowblower for this one in my area... just a leaf blower would do for 3-4" of feathers Along those lines...decided not to buy the blower. Gonna try one more season shoveling. For a storm approaching a foot, will try every 6 inches. If it’s too much I’ll buy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 just got back from errands.. EURO bumped south, waiting for EPS .. SREF's should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 looking forward to seeing watches get hoisted soon. It feels like it's been forever since I've been under a watch and had relatively high confidence in it actually verifying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Him and winterwolf can sign a joint statement of dissent. You guys might wilt when a model doesn't show what you want in your backyard, but I don't sway every run that changes its ideas. I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. This storm should produce a foot plus south of the Pike, southwest of BOS. Plymouth should see 16"+ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 time to take a break from #snow maps & peek at the dynamic tropopause (DT), which shows a deamplifying southern stream wave approaching #NewEngland Wed ngt-Thu. Less amplitude=heavy qpf struggles northward. BIG bust potential northern qpf shield from #NY #MA. #winter From Frank Nocera on twitter 1:32 PM · Dec 14, 2020·Twitter Web App Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It buy it, unless the timing of things changes. We can offset the dampening of the s/w with the intensity of it. Ukie, Euro, GGEM show this. GFS loses it just when you think it was going to look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You guys might wilt when a model doesn't show what you want in your backyard, but I don't sway every run that changes its ideas. I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. This storm should produce a foot plus south of the Pike, southwest of BOS. Plymouth should see 16"+ Without looking info up....name 5 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You guys might wilt when a model doesn't show what you want in your backyard, but I don't sway every run that changes its ideas. I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. This storm should produce a foot plus south of the Pike, southwest of BOS. Plymouth should see 16"+ Link me up to the wilting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 H7/H85 look pretty good on the euro. I’ll be surprised with such a sharp cutoff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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