Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 I keep hitting this phrase in my internal monologue - 'it's a race' It really is... I mean, the GFS is right - if perhaps 'too fast'. This thing is pancaking ... en route to being squashed out of existence by a "failed 50/50's ability to back slow the flow" - don't get me started on that NAO's typical absentee fatherhood on this mo' fugga ... I'm partial to blame too - haha... Anyway, hey, ...least I said there was a possibility on page 1,000,000... ( about a billion pages ago...) that it was possible the progression wins and well... too early to completely rule it out but you're odds are fleeting at best for slower solution to happen... Anyway, it's really again a matter of rate of decay versus does this have mechanics enough to still get the deed done as the wave's swan song? I think the GFS is too fast - owing to it's speedy progressive nature ( anyway..) it's sort of like getting to that shearing aspect too quickly - .. .On the other hand, I could see the UKMET being too conserved the other way. Course of least regret? (GFS + UMKET)/2 * cosmological constant of electron double-split uncertainty principle = X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: Model dejur? Every event is like a snowflake, which model is less wrong? In the end, toward the end all comes down to nowcast. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'm at hour 48 on the Euro, one more frame will tell me what I need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 At 60 the Euro looks a tick west... very little difference to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Woah, southern s/w hit hyper speed from 54 to 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What the hell happened to Michigan? Perhaps they stole some land from Canada?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks tucky tucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: FIRST CALL 8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. C-2” MV and ACK. Cirrus for NNE. I like it, but way too bullish IMO. 8-14" south of a HFD PVD line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 998 off S NJ coast at 66hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It's south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks tucky tucky Not often I root for that, but this is one instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 mehhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 big step toward the GFS on the Euro, finally. Euro NW bias is so bad in the day 3-5 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not often I root for that, but this is one instance. It amped too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Good hit for E PA and N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 QPF not too different from 00z run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Could the GFS win this battle? The shortwave is weak and I just don’t see this storm gaining the latitude that would benefit more of our peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Saw that coming pretty early too, confluence was stronger....squeeze play for CT though, pretty big nod to the Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Is the GFS the new King yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I don't know about some on here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 How is it not that diff from 00z, yet a big nod to the GFS? Sounds like IMBY goggles. My guess is big cut n of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If it went south again it would be closer to the GFS, but more like a 70/30 compromise to the euro right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: I don't know about some on here. That strong s/w saves us along the southern area of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I’ll take my 15” and be very happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It's darn close to 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It’s fine.... still drops a foot down here if not a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That is a great band signal once again to the pike though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think what Berg said and a few others..70/30 nod to Euro currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Part of me would rather the GFS than the 12z EURO lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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