weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Man....going to bed at 4:30 AM and still a half hour reading to catch up. It's winter and a storm is coming. I'm thinking a general 8-14 for most of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Based on the reading of the BOX from Boston Weather. We need that center to come close or directly over the 40/70 Benchmark to get something good here or we're looking at 3-6" of very dry fluffy snow / pixie dust Boston area and immediate North Shore with a very narrow band of 6-12" on the far South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: whats good (liquor) to put in eggnog for a drink? Captain morgan rum. Or any whiskey, cognac . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: whats good (liquor) to put in eggnog for a drink? Don't even play around. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UKIE yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've gone a year without a warning...I could go another 10, and amounts of 10" would still seem moderate to me. Doesn't mean it isn't enjoyable....just not that anomalous. I think it also has to do with the societal impact of a 12" snowstorm these days. 12" of snow is meh when it comes to disrupting travel and life really beyond the timeframe of when it is actually snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ugh. I go back and forth. 10pm Wednesday arrival into Logan...do I move it up to Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just another perspective ..but fwiw, here's my bullet point analysis: * the total tropospheric wave space is deamplifying as it is moving thru.. * the GFS is uniquely qualified to snif this sort of phenomenon ..because it carry's on with a bit of progressive ( sort of ..)/ speed shearing bias, anyway... Therein, it may rush the delta(dampening)/dt process. * the NAM ( using that as a dipole scenario... ), tends to carry on with a longer term NW bias and amplitude tendency - it may be it's non-hydrostatic/ in situ pseudo adiabatic management offering nuanced additional latent heat feeds into roll out ridges... blah blah...That forces backward and it curls more NW with no compunctions in achieving majestic storm intensity whle doing so, viola! Storm blossome 20" totals in a "very realistic" 4 hour span ... * I think a compromise may be in order. * As an ongoing 'reasonable'/consistently useful deterministic method: when one or the other major player guidance types does not budge, most of the ends results in those cases end up exhibiting vestiges ( more and less) of why that guidance did not budge... that's code for watch - the GFS won't be "completely" wrong here. And the fact of the matter is...it's not already ? * It's not - the hemisphere suffers from speed surplus in a progressive pattern which ( oddly enough ) ( as an aside...that garland of progressive rip is winding around underneath - at least as far as the GEFs have it - a strong negative AO phase ... Hmm, the two are in contention. It's interesting... ) ... So, anyway, for now I think there is enough evidence not to auto-toss the GFS when trying to be objective here. I would also question big totals...while not discounting the idea of a more significant impact, because there is till some uncertainty in the 'sensitivity' of the system morphology due to what is still presently relaying off the Pacific out west into the trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not really feeling this one. Afraid a lot of weenies expecting 12-18"+ are going to be disappointed when they have to settle for 8". A region wide 6-12" south of the pike with 4-8" from pike northward is kind of what I'm expecting. Haven't dug in deep enough to figure out what "northward" means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: whats good (liquor) to put in eggnog for a drink? Brandy, bourbon, rum, Mr. Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Greg said: The hope now is that based on the reading of the BOX from Boston Weather. We need that center to come close or directly over the 40/70 Benchmark to get something good here or we're looking at 3-6" of very dry fluffy snow / pixie dust with a very narrow band of 6-12" on the far South Shore. The CMC goes right over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I think it also has to do with the societal impact of a 12" snowstorm these days. 12" of snow is meh when it comes to disrupting travel and life really beyond the timeframe of when it is actually snowing. A moderate non historic storm during Christmas season is still a big plus. It doesn't always have to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Greg said: The hope now is that based on the reading of the BOX from Boston Weather. We need that center to come close or directly over the 40/70 Benchmark to get something good here or we're looking at 3-6" of very dry fluffy snow / pixie dust with a very narrow band of 6-12" on the far South Shore. Need the s/w to remain potent and intact as possible as it traverses thru. Exact opposite of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Don't even play around. Beverage of choice for the CMC last few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Not really feeling this one. Afraid a lot of weenies expecting 12-18"+ are going to be disappointed when they have to settle for 8". A region wide 6-12" south of the pike with 4-8" from pike northward is kind of what I'm expecting. Haven't dug in deep enough to figure out what "northward" means. I’ll gladly take 6-12 here..no issues. But most modeling shows more than that here..but whatever. It beats an inch of slush like last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Ugh. I go back and forth. 10pm Wednesday arrival into Logan...do I move it up to Tuesday? Move it up. Airlines don’t like their planes stuck so even though it should be just beginning at 10 PM Wednesday night they may cancel preemptively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We seem to be in the goods each run...we take and are happy. Yes but we skeptical until it starts snowing and the radar looks great. Sticking with 8-12” for us with a chance at 12-16”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Move it up. Airlines don’t like their planes stuck so even though it should be just beginning at 10 PM Wednesday night they may cancel preemptively. Alright. Yea, especially if the plane is coming from NYC or something like that... We'll see what the Euro shows, then will execute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Logan11 said: A moderate non historic storm during Christmas season is still a big plus. It doesn't always have to be epic. Agree!..and I would sign up for it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The CMC goes right over the benchmark. Which is what you and I want to see. I hope it continues to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: UKIE yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UK looks good and slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: That's a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ukie is impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 so.. GFS/BOX vs the rest of the world? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's a good look. Check out the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 wait, we need the german model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Not really feeling this one. Afraid a lot of weenies expecting 12-18"+ are going to be disappointed when they have to settle for 8". A region wide 6-12" south of the pike with 4-8" from pike northward is kind of what I'm expecting. Haven't dug in deep enough to figure out what "northward" means. I think that’s how it plays out too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: so.. GFS/BOX vs the rest of the world? And pope benedick arnold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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