OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85. Yeah, really just need to find the DGZ level and best omega. But like you say, because the best lift is at one level, the precip will fall out slightly NW of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's where we joke about the PF currier and ives band, it's like 600mb many times. All those times where we said that you would get decent snows...it was from the area above 700. Sometimes looking at 500mb VVs will help you interpolate between 700 and 500 to get an idea. You can also look at the temps at those levels to get an idea of roughly where the -12 to -18c layer is. Yeah I've had my share of 600mb bands, lol. I always look at those Coolwx graphics for the slice of atmosphere vs. time to see where the lift and DGZ is. I do like the visualization and evolution of those 600-800mb fronto maps... shows how this event should play out pretty well. There's a wall that comes in over everyone in the SNE forum and then pivots across that interior zone the GFS has the max QPF over. Overall a big storm for the heartland of the Northeast. Not going to lie, I definitely should've traveled down to my parent's house for this one... I think they'll get croaked. That area has had a decent run of it in recent years... they had like 26" from the early December event last winter too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabru Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS destroys my area NOOOO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: You’ll miss 2 hours of the fun based on that wake up time. Believe me I’m worried but 3 or later is typically bed time. Or maybe sleep 11-3 and make it up afterwards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Meh. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Going to need one of these I’m afraid to get in on the big fun with everyone else. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Meh. Looks nice but fairly ordinary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Harvey with widespread 10-18+. The little feed at the bottom had “Harvey Leonard open to New England snow tutorial for pope” 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Going to need one of these I’m afraid to get in on the big fun with everyone else. We got gronked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Meh. It takes a lot to excite you doesn't it? lol. Widespread 8-16"... local amounts to 16+ gets a "meh" then you are in the wrong hobby for the northeastern US. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It takes a lot to excite you doesn't it? lol. Widespread 8-16"... local amounts to 16+ gets a "meh" then you are in the wrong hobby for the northeastern US.He needs live in truckee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 For the RI & SE/MA folks on the board. Not buying 37 and 38 degree surface temps on the NAM and HRRR that far into RI and SE MA.... 850 temps stays below freezing well off shore... we shall see! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Just don't expect to get 20"+ and I think most people will end up pretty satisfied with the 14" that they do get Ill be thrilled with 12 inches, we can wait for the 20 incher in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Final Call 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 You guys are something else! I remember when 6 inches was like pulling teeth. Throwing 20 around like water.....you have no idea how blessed we’ve been over the past 25-30 years! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: You guys are something else! I remember when 6 inches was like pulling teeth. Throwing 20 around like water.....you have no idea how blessed we’ve been over the past 25-30 years! We have been trying and trying and trying to tell them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Ill be thrilled with 12 inches, we can wait for the 20 incher in January. Oh, no, January will be TANuary. This is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Our kiddo's first real storm being able to run around. I can't wait. 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Final Call nice pretty much same as me for Connecticut, GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: You guys are something else! I remember when 6 inches was like pulling teeth. Throwing 20 around like water.....you have no idea how blessed we’ve been over the past 25-30 years! there will be lean times for major winter storms but honestly they are more the exception, jmo. Most of 80's were rough of course until 92-93 but yet many had a few moderate to heavier snowfalls sprinkled in. Also can say 05-6 and last winter were pretty mediocre if not bad for many, but had a major event in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: there will be lean times for major winter storms but honestly they are more the exception, jmo. Most of 80's were rough of course until 92-93 but yet many had a few moderate to heavier snowfalls sprinkled in. Also can say 05-6 and last winter were pretty mediocre if not bad for many, but had a major event in the mix. True. But I remember going 4-5 years straight when it was really tough to get a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Upstream obs... Philly area was getting 40-50+ dBZ, heavy snow WAA thump will rock tonight... might take some creative sleep strategies to be up for the best of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They will just have to learn the hard way. The past two seasons was the hard way. Back to normalcy now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, wxsniss said: Upstream obs... Philly area was getting 40-50+ dBZ, heavy snow WAA thump will rock tonight... might take some creative sleep strategies to be up for the best of it My weather geek niece is at State College Pennsylvania reporting heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I don't buy turning to rain even here in Harwich, MA, I mean sleet for a bit, sure, but not rain. The entire column cools rapidly after warming slightly above 700mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 54 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Fishers station WBZ 4 has a 16+ jackpot in about the same areas I mentioned yesterday. Easton Sharon Foxboro area. Could 100% see that I remember when Pete Bouchard had that area in like 3-6" or something stupid like that yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It is snowing above the surface right now. Above our heads snow is falling out of the clouds just to evaporate in the final 500 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s just fronto in 1 level. It slopes toward the cold side with height. The QS banding doesn’t have to magically line up with H7 all of the time. A lot of the time it’s 550-650. It’s like only using 850 temps for warmth aloft...sometimes it’s a torch between H7 and H85. it's also typically slanted too... The fronto-g band lags fallout after initiation due to lifting the parcel at a slant-wise trajectory blah blah... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is snowing above the surface right now. Above our heads snow is falling out of the clouds just to evaporate in the final 500 feet. If you stick your weenie up 501ft, you'll feel it melting on the tip. 1 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wow 18z a great suite! I will likely sleep 11-5 and be up for the fun here. I'm in between jobs right now, so took the opportunity to sleep from 1pm to 5pm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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