TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Going to be running nude around Peabody square and ashmont station around 4 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Nothing wrong with that. Sucks to be a relative screw-hole again, but could be worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He's actually in a really good spot on the Euro for ML banding....His area up to like MHT and then back WSW to near your hood. Was just gonna say it looks like the H7 low skirts the south coast of CT and RI before heading northeast. That's a good look for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, mattm4242 said: We may be in a pretty good location for this, the mesos look like they are loving Essex county through cape Ann, and even the euro has us at about a foot, at 10-1. You guys will get croacked. I like that area for CF enhancement, followed by oes assist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in - Why do the Mesos show much higher totals for SNH and SME than the Globals? They've been worlds apart the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yep. I want that for weather models. By the time it is done analyzing the GFS, it will have taught itself to facepalm. It's an interesting concept. The model learns from itself and/or other models to learn what not to do or forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I wonder if I'll see any OES enhancement just NW of the canal area. Either way I like the latest runs for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, PWMan said: Definitely a step back in the wrong direction for us. Right on the edge. Yep, this one is not for us. Maybe the meso models will be more correct. Either way, it'll be nice to get the ground white, which as a photographer is all I really care about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently Hot daymn cmon IBM let this be your shining moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, DomNH said: Was just gonna say it looks like the H7 low skirts the south coast of CT and RI before heading northeast. That's a good look for here. A better look with a more intact WCB, and better band placement around here. Would help avoid major subby issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Don’t care about jackpots, just want good snow growth! Part 2 of last December’s bomb had 30dbz over my head on radar but with -SN falling while S, E and W of me got destroyed. Storm was an all time fav. Got almost 30 inches bro. So sick. Stole your snow no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love this map. February 1983, let's do it again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: It's an interesting concept. The model learns from itself and/or other models to learn what not to do or forecast. That's what machine learning is...basically, let the computer mix and match its own variables to come up with a formula that works through trial and error. A lot of times they end up getting these machine-learned programs and nobody knows how the heck they actually work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, DomNH said: Was just gonna say it looks like the H7 low skirts the south coast of CT and RI before heading northeast. That's a good look for here. Yeah you can see where the H7 WF is below in red....I put in the likely spot of the ML goodies based off that in the blue area....prob near the 600mb WF in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I like that Ray is pulling an "it's a wonderful life" and coming off the bridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Just tried to fire up the snowblower so I did not jinx anything and the thing won't start....off to buy some new shovels. Wife is giving me a hard time, "why didn't you start it days ago?"..... Carb cleaner is your friend. Soak it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you can see where the H7 WF is below in red....I put in the likely spot of the ML goodies based off that....prob near the 600mb WF in this system. I think it looks great up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: That's what machine learning is...basically, let the computer mix and match its own variables to come up with a formula that works through trial and error. A lot of times they end up getting these machine-learned programs and nobody knows how the heck they actually work. Models kind of do this through MOS. It's not machine-learning, but they can account for their own biases in the output. If you're looking for something that knows that NAM is always too NW with low center placement in winter, well that's basically what the humans are for, and there's a published catalog of known model biases on one of the national center sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you can see where the H7 WF is below in red....I put in the likely spot of the ML goodies based off that in the blue area....prob near the 600mb WF in this system. Hair north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, snowman21 said: Models kind of do this through MOS. It's not machine-learning, but they can account for their own biases in the output. If you're looking for something that knows that NAM is always too NW with low center placement in winter, well that's basically what the humans are for, and there's a published catalog of known model biases on one of the national center sites. Well that's like saying playing chess is what humans are for...yes, but a computer can do it much, much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like that Ray is pulling an "it's a wonderful life" and coming off the bridge. Well, I was afraid of like 8-9" of sand...but I feel better now that the WCB is more intact, and the mid level deformation has sunk south some. I'm not JP, but that is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hair north of me. Lol, my drawing is a rough approximation....could easily tickle that SE 5 or 10 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Corey giving the forum a shoutout on zo and Bertrand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you can see where the H7 WF is below in red....I put in the likely spot of the ML goodies based off that in the blue area....prob near the 600mb WF in this system. Hippy just popped in a gunmie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol, my drawing is a rough approximation....could easily tickle that SE 5 or 10 miles. Don't forgeth, we also have the low levels feeding dry air in from Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Jackpot for New England might actually be in Litchfield county and adjacent SW MA....combo of big WCB hit before it fizzles and also getting clipped by the ML goodies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Jackpot for New England might actually be in Litchfield county and adjacent SW MA....combo if big WCB hit before it fizzles and also getting clipped by the ML goodies. Either that, or CJ...never underestimate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't forgeth, we also have the low levels feeding dry air in from Maine. Yeah you aren't jackpotting....i agree on that. But you're not going to get 7 inches of sand either I don't think. You're gonna get CCB action tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Ah fook. Please GYX, take down the winter storm warnings, put me out of my misery. The stars are not wanted now; put out every one, Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun, Screw zone again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Jackpot for New England might actually be in Litchfield county and adjacent SW MA....combo of big WCB hit before it fizzles and also getting clipped by the ML goodies. Can we just add northern New Haven County to that? Thanks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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