JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: About time that thing got a clue. Noted that GFSv16 has been in line this whole time and has been more or less on track with the EC. Yeah, but it always takes a while no matter what for them to really hone in on something. When you look at the 12z runs, they are in really good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I feel like when I post about a trend that could lead to more snow and @Dr. Dews weenies me, the old Carmen San Diego music plays that told you that you were about to catch the bad guy lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Whineminster said: ok the time has come @HoarfrostHubb - what's your call bro? I just put out an email to my school... that's always fun. I'm going with 6-9" for the Montachusett area... I'm thinking we sniff some subsidance for at least a bit. Hopefully that is modelled wrong and we break a foot... And you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that one didn't have a block....it just ripped NE. right. not a similar setup imo. i think its just the modelling trends and forecast amounts that were kind of drawing the parallel to imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: right. not a similar setup imo. i think its just the modelling trends and forecast amounts that were kind of drawing the parallel to imo. Yea, I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Drought in the summer, rain in the winter. Might as well jump in the bay now. Lock in the weenie shrinking...Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, drstuess said: Drought in the summer, rain in the winter. Might as well jump in the bay now. Lock in the weenie shrinking... Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk that's the spirit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I just put out an email to my school... that's always fun. I'm going with 6-9" for the Montachusett area... I'm thinking we sniff some subsidance for at least a bit. Hopefully that is modelled wrong and we break a foot... And you? close - I'm 5" to 8". If we ticky ticky north tonight, then 8-12". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Whineminster said: close - I'm 5" to 8". If we ticky ticky north tonight, then 8-12". I hope we ticky tick south to get into the better H7 fronto banding. We're not getting into the WCB. As things stand I'm going 4-8'' here. Hope to squeak out a warning event but I can see a scenario where we just subsidence struggle our way to 4-5'' of dense sand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, drstuess said: Drought in the summer, rain in the winter. Might as well jump in the bay now. Lock in the weenie shrinking... Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Shrinkage? Hopefully that reverses come 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Then of course, way out of its range but the HRRR actually dryslots Dendrite, almost gets PF into the mid levels, and is close to giving half of CT an ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I told my coworker we should hope to get into a meaty deformation band. He said Meaty Deformation Band would be an awesome name for an actual band and I have to agree. I also said we have to watch out for dry slots and my female coworker replied, "I know all about those!" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, DomNH said: I hope we ticky tick south to get into the better H7 fronto banding. We're not getting into the WCB. As things stand I'm going 4-8'' here. Hope to squeak out a warning event but I can see a scenario where we just subsidence struggle our way to 4-5'' of dense sand. I am thinking 3-5" here, just don't feel this one up here, this is a southern storm. Hopefully I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Who is your son on here... I forget. He's Jerry's dad. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this... I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. Here's the analysis and model runs from that event. I looked it up at least it did snow in all of CT and only extreme SE got screwed. It looks like it was 7-9 inches for JC-CT, me and Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 i don't see allot of changes on the NAM maybe some subtle changes upstream and downstream.. but ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I looked it up at least it did snow in all of CT and only extreme SE got screwed. It looks like it was 7-9 inches for JC-CT, me and Tolland. checked my records - 11" of snow + a full inch of sleet Kevin had 14" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: He's Jerry's dad. wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: I looked it up at least it did snow in all of CT and only extreme SE got screwed. It looks like it was 7-9 inches for JC-CT, me and Tolland. I'm thinking tolland and further northwest and Enfield were more like 12-to 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: wut? Not that Jerry, But not sure who the other would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I looked it up at least it did snow in all of CT and only extreme SE got screwed. It looks like it was 7-9 inches for JC-CT, me and Tolland. Yea i was a bit dissapointed i went 12-20 and only got 9.9. could have been worse. This is the final call vs. reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not that Jerry, But not sure who the other would be. weathafella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z NAM might be the first NAM run in a while to not be more amped than the one before it....looks a shade shallower with the shortwave and downstream ridging through 15h. The confluence might be a hair weaker though so we'll see if it makes up ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z Nam looks a little flatter with the trough and a weaker s/w down south, This run probably will be a tic or two east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Yea i was a bit dissapointed i went 12-20 and only got 9.9. could have been worse. This is the final call vs. reality. That pack had staying power though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 probably going to be closer to the GFS on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 18z Nam looks a little flatter with the trough and a weaker s/w down south, This run probably will be a tic or two east. are you guys in the same room? always post right after each other lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: checked my records - 11" of snow + a full inch of sleet Kevin had 14" Oops but even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: are you guys in the same room? always post right after each other lol I know, Its crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM bowing to its master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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