Chrisrotary12 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think one thing we can all be confident in is that this storm provides the first true melt of the season. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: You'll prob still get plenty of snow, but there will be a lot of paste there I think as a chunk of the storm you'll be on the warm side of the CF....so it'll be 32F mash potatoes. Expand I could see it starting fairly cold going to mashed and then going back to fairly Cold... middle part of the pack could be mashed potatoes. As long as it’s all snow, don’t care 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I also wouldn’t discount the 12z suite being an over correct NW and we slowly sink back, who knows. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:49 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Beat me to it. That should be another crusher somewhere. Maybe a tic north? Expand I was just going to look at 00z to see where that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The Ukie track looks to be over the benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:49 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Beat me to it. That should be another crusher somewhere. Maybe a tic north? Expand Same hour, zoomed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ALB gets destroyed on the 12z Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:50 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I also wouldn’t discount the 12z suite being an over correct NW and we slowly sink back, who knows. Expand Don’t get hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:50 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I also wouldn’t discount the 12z suite being an over correct NW and we slowly sink back, who knows. Expand It's possible. Pope's super strong high should help, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol, the CF on the RGEM is sick Expand RGEM is naked twister for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:51 PM, mahk_webstah said: Don’t get hopeful Expand Throwing the salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: ALB gets destroyed on the 12z Ukie. Expand It's hard to tell because of the switch from 3 to 12 hour intervals, but it looks to me like it cut back on qpf (not albany, SNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Looks like I may be headed to Miller State park again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:51 PM, mahk_webstah said: Don’t get hopeful Expand Don't deny the se correction in the end. Seen it many times with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:51 PM, mahk_webstah said: Don’t get hopeful Expand Looks like all the whining from you guys over the last 3-4 days has paid off. Congrats on the jack 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I guess it's pretty good for BOS again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well, I've mostly been sitting this out up here near the Lakes Region. Are we now back in play or is this just the typical model waffling before we get into the HR range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:47 PM, dryslot said: Expand West shifts continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:53 PM, CoastalWx said: Throwing the salt. Expand He just pissed off the karma gods...now he'll be choking on exhaust while MHT gets ripped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:24 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. It will be nice, don't get me wrong. But we are always missing the best stuff around here. 8-12' when it could have been 16-20". Locked for days then inside 36hr.... Expand I just hope we don't need to downgrade the call....looked good from a distance when models were throwing out 15-20" left and right, hopefully the dreaded sleet doesn't cut our numbers in half. My hometown of Lancaster PA was looking like a jackpot that may end up with more sleet than snow now. Crazy storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:55 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like all the whining from you guys over the last 3-4 days has paid off. Congrats on the jack Expand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:55 PM, MJO812 said: Old Expand what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:55 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like all the whining from you guys over the last 3-4 days has paid off. Congrats on the jack Expand WWATT (whining works all the time). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:55 PM, Greg said: Don't deny the se correction in the end. Seen it many times with these. Expand I fully expect a meesenger shuffle SE at the end...the question si where does this peak on the models for the NW trend. It could go further at 00z before coming back some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:56 PM, JC-CT said: what Expand Nvm I stayed up till 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:55 PM, MJO812 said: Old Expand I am actually, Smoking your lunch? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:55 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like all the whining from you guys over the last 3-4 days has paid off. Congrats on the jack Expand You taught them well...... They were even whining about NAO blocks for a few runs even though this would be in Ottawa without it. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just have this strong feeling that the radar is going to be showing amazing returns over our location, but due to the dry air in place nothing will reach the ground. These models often have a very difficult time forecasting erosion of the leading edge of the precip shield. Also, if it takes 5-6 hours to saturate the column up here, we lose opportunity for the biggest snows, especially if the storm rotates OTS quickly as opposed to a N/NE motion into the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Meteocentre precip maps look good region wide for ukmet....evenif they are a bit hard to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:58 PM, SnowGiant611 said: I just have this strong feeling that the radar is going to be showing amazing returns over our location, but due to the dry air in place nothing will reach the ground. These models often have a very difficult time forecasting erosion of the leading edge of the precip shield. Also, if it takes 5-6 hours to saturate the column up here, we lose opportunity for the biggest snows, especially if the storm rotates OTS quickly as opposed to a N/NE motion into the Gulf of Maine. Expand If you get into the mid level banding, the column will be instantly saturated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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