HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs is so bad FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Difference appears to be a warm tongue at 700mb on the 3k vs the GFS. We don’t even sniff sleet here on the GFS despite it having a similar low position as the NAM. My guess is unfortunately that the 3k would be better at picking up stuff like this, but perhaps it is overaggressive with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: RGEM map I haven't seen posted, just for the posterity. 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah we still have 36 hours to go. Would like to see another shift at 18/00z and maybe we can grab a few inches. That'd be a huge win after watching this crushed south for days and days. GFS. What a huge mystery regarding the placement of the subby zone; we can't possibly even begin to speculate on that at this early juncture. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Greg said: You can use the Kuchera but it is a little misleading with the fluff factor potential. It usually over does it. But fun to look at none the less. Usually splitting the difference with the 10 to 1 is reasonable assuming you are on the cold side of the CF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What a huge mystery regarding the placement of the subby zone; we can't possibly even begin to speculate on that at this early juncture. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The RGEM was actually better with the lingering OES in EMA..so as far as snowfall amounts it was about the same as 6z, maybe even slightly better on the Cape. It just gets the mix line further north during the meat of the storm, and it's definitely more tucked. Still hoping we've hit our peak amping, and can now start the cweat shimmy at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: He's gonna bitch and whine his way to a 15" storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: He's gonna bitch and whine his way to a 15" storm. I'm not complaining or down-playing the event. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think almost all of us knew this is me was pretty straightforward. The biggies usually are. These always come NW. Classic N trend storm. The FV3 worries people every time . They factor it in and shouldn’t . Just causes confusion I get it, but that block and high was pretty stout. The high seems to be slightly more NE and a couple MB weaker with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not complaining or down-playing the event. It is what it is. Working on an update? Or waiting for Ukie and EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Depends on how you feel about having power Yeah? Didn’t look that wet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 I feel the move by BOX to expand was probably a good call this morning .. I would extend the watch into southern VT/NH/Lower Maine coast too.. The thing about this that has me suspicious for a significant impact scenario - albeit perhaps tapering, which is an unusual result relative to the gestation of the climatological Nor'easter ... - is that there is still some 80 to nearly 100kts of 500 mb jet max riding up and over the polar boundary interface/or immediately astride on the N side of the best perceived lower thickness packing that will approach extremeness somewhere within meteorological shouting distance of a WSW/ENE axis near the S. coast... Dec 2005 rings a bell ..even if it is not really in a very good total analog space for this.. .. Both had/modeled a similar very compressed thermal interface along or just S of the S.Coast...with wind max at 500 mb moving about 50 or 70 or so miles on the polar side of said interface. Why that is important is that packed thermal interface means an upright elevated frontal slope, such that maximizes UVM proficiency for any entrained parcels... A nexus of pseudo-adiabatic destablization from latent heat release/buoyancy from/during cloud explosion ... then being augmented further by superior Q-v forcing by said exit-entrance jet acting as difluence running by just to the N... This is a positive feed-back for lift. That's a lot of long words to describe this being uniquely capable of over-producing ( or in this case, performing on par - amazing!) when we have the these physical parametrics overlapping - I would also be looking for CSI.. or quasi CSI banding and thunderstorm activity too, maybe more so NE PA/ N NJ and White Plains NY ... but if James' ( tm his warm front ) 10C dt/dx really does line up across a mere 50 miles ... some of that can't be ruled out as enough mechanics "appear" still available along the Mass Pike... feeding off CAPEd air if that were not enough... This is a S/stream theta-e potent air mass being forced up a steep ascent and the synoptic evac ... and it doesn't stop there.. because I am noticing the right exit-entrance emergent jet at the 300 mb level is over CNE ... and that's sort of completing the circuitry ... Just as an 'index finger rule' ( too ...) we were always taught in the 1990's up at UML ... you tend to look for 1.5 D polar side of 500 mb wind max trajector for snow climate and even the GFS has it's wind axis cutting across the L.I. S and tho these general rules are made to be broken... mm - I could see region Amherst to BED, MA type axis doing interestingly well in this - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: I get it, but that block and high was pretty stout. The high seems to be slightly more NE and a couple MB weaker with each model run. I would not mind a tic back se bc I will need the mid levels to really maximize potential. Should be a nice event, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 John Paul going down with the ship.. refusing to give in 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: January 2016. Still a good analog in my view. We have a warmer version of this... Shift everything ~50 miles northwest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Working on an update? Or waiting for Ukie and EC? Tomorrow....but I don't think my first call is bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah? Didn’t look that wet here. 31-32 with snow to rain back snow? That’s an issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: FYP I was trying to leave out the times it can score a coup with other systems. But time and time again it shits the bed in EC snowstorms. The pope, joesnow, qq omega, and a few others need to bend over and take the beating they deserve. Congrats on your 12-16" btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 31-32 with snow to rain back snow? That’s an issue It could also be a 32-33 snow with gusts to 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Working on an update? Or waiting for Ukie and EC? I would wait for the big guy "EC" before updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Tip... what is CSI banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z GGEM came NW of 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tip... what is CSI banding? Conditional Symmetric instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don’t really know what I’m talking about.... but to me, doesn’t look like the Canadian is going to follow the north trend to the degree the other models have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t really know what I’m talking about.... but to me, doesn’t look like the Canadian is going to follow the north trend to the degree the other models have Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t really know what I’m talking about.... but to me, doesn’t look like the Canadian is going to follow the north trend to the degree the other models have Usually the Canadian Regional (RGM) is more amped than the Canadian Global (GEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not mind a tic back se bc I will need the mid levels to really maximize potential. Should be a nice event, regardless. Be interesting to see the other models. The NAM/ICON/GFS all made substantial NW ticks at 12z. RGEM was decently NW but not completely crazy. The other models when toggling from 6z to 12z were fairly substantial. Makes you wonder what data they got in. It's almost like they kept the low more tucked into the mid-Atlantic coast for longer before going east... didn't get sucked east into that convective blob like previously. RGEM went over Nantucket instead of more like the Benchmark from 6z to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Greg said: I would wait for the big guy "EC" before updating. I had to do First Call on Sunday bc I was so busy Monday, but I have the luxury of waiting until tomorrow for Final. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm ready to play naked twister with the CF on the 3km. Sign me up for that placement. 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: RGEM map I haven't seen posted, just for the posterity. Man--great image of Ray getting porked. Usually those are hanging down across the CRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t really know what I’m talking about.... but to me, doesn’t look like the Canadian is going to follow the north trend to the degree the other models have GGEM was the furthest north at 00z, so makes sense. 00z already crushed Dendrite/Lakes Region to Dryslot, so if that went more north, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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