Active mid December with multiple event potential

[Go Kart Mozart]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s weird is that is way better at H5 than 18z. 

 

06z sreams dryslot for southern CT.  After being in the sweet spot for five days, I feel like we are hanging on by our fingernails down here.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

06z sreams dryslot for southern CT.  After being in the sweet spot for five days, I feel like we are hanging on by our fingernails down here.

The way the band is oriented, it's not like anyone in the state is going to miss it. Just once it works through, it could get fugly for some of us. But nobody in CT is getting 3" of sand or something...in my predictions.

[kdxken]

stein

By the time the snow finishes up Thursday afternoon or evening, some areas will end up with more than a foot on the ground. That’s certainly a lot of snow for those places, but this won’t be a blockbuster storm in terms of power outages, coastal flooding, or accumulation. The snow will be on the fluffy side and moving. It will not be nearly as difficult as the heavy and wet stuff.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

06z sreams dryslot for southern CT.  After being in the sweet spot for five days, I feel like we are hanging on by our fingernails down here.

Agree. Still think we can pull double digits before that happens though.

[CoastalWx]

6Z EPS really similar to 00z. Maybe even a tad slower.

[CT Valley Snowman]

This is definitely weenie tag worthy but the sref mean for BDL is 15".  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

stein

By the time the snow finishes up Thursday afternoon or evening, some areas will end up with more than a foot on the ground. That’s certainly a lot of snow for those places, but this won’t be a blockbuster storm in terms of power outages, coastal flooding, or accumulation. The snow will be on the fluffy side and moving. It will not be nearly as difficult as the heavy and wet stuff.

There is definitely outage potential in SE cstl areas with 50kt winds and paste.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that’s the main risk for us. It should still be great statewide, but we’re kind of playing with fire with some level of slotting. 

Reggie does love to project dryslots. I remember that distinctly from 2015; I don't recall however whether it was actually right about them then or since.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Reggie does love to project dryslots. I remember that distinctly from 2015; I don't recall however whether it was actually right about them then or since.

It's still a little far out to nail the exact location of banding.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

This is definitely weenie tag worthy but the serf mean for BDL is 15".  

Is that a cutback?

[CoastalWx]

Also impressiver are the temps from like 800 on down. There is actually low level CAPE. Might be a decent OE signal too in typical spots. The cstl front is hellacious. Could be near 32 at BOS and 18 in BED for a time. Will collapse SE near dawn Thursday.

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think Jeff or Brian have noticed and posted on previous storms for nne about the euro doing wierd stuff on off hour runs, for real. 

Yeah, It does seems to waffle on the 06z and 18z runs, Its quite noticeable and don't have an explanation for it but it does it a lot.

[dryslot]

44 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Anybody hear back from Steve?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yes, I see Kevin answered as well.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also impressiver are the temps from like 800 on down. There is actually low level CAPE. Might be a decent OE signal too in typical spots. The cstl front is hellacious. Could be near 32 at BOS and 18 in BED for a time. Will collapse SE near dawn Thursday.

Ray is getting out the toaster

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Ray is getting out the toaster

He's gonna be fine. Congrats on the banding there.

[CT Valley Snowman]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Is that a cutback?

Fwiw at 03 it looks like a slight increase increase from the previous run yesterday 

[ice1972]

What’s all this S about Boxing Day.....Oh fuk all y’all with that shit talk.....I swear to god....

[Henry's Weather]

Anyone have EPS maps?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6Z EPS really similar to 00z. Maybe even a tad slower.

No comments on 6z euro 7H low from 6z to 18z Thursday . I assume that is why it was less?

[CT Valley Snowman]

For some of us it's inherent in our nature to find out what could go wrong to avoid the big disappointments, when you look at the big picture this is looking pretty promising but of course there can be some subtle and mesoscale features that people want to hone in on as we get closer that could screw places a bit

[dendrite]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where’s that Pope gif Dendy made...pissed myself.

[Henry's Weather]

I have EPS maps...lol

[jlauderdal]

Yeah, It does seems to waffle on the 06z and 18z runs, Its quite noticeable and don't have an explanation for it but it does it a lot.

We see this in trop systems all the time on 06z and 18z gfs runs..weird stuff then its back...gfs and euro were horrible this year especially for genesis of a center..enjoy your storm, the dry slot is trouble for someone

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes has 12-18” all of CT , RI up to Pike and out to just around BOS

https://www.nbcboston.com/weather/

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen all we need to see. 12-20”.. lala’s to 24” NH border south 

Straightforward 

Boo

CT stations

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

EPS is really good here 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

EPS is really good here 

has been for 5 days

[Henry's Weather]

WPC early morning disco:

 

...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to New York and Southern New
England...

Major winter storm on tap for portions of the central
Appalachians, the Piedmont area of the Mid-Atlantic and much of
central/southeast NY and southern New England as a nor'easter
develops and lifts up along the East Coast Wednesday into
Thursday. The wave that crosses the southern Plains today will
eject through the Mid-South tonight as a reinforcing trough brings
on a negative tilt as it turns east-northeast across the southern
Appalachians on Wednesday. This will promote cyclogenesis along
the Carolina Coast with low pressure then lifting north and
strengthening along the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday evening
before shifting east-northeast offshore and south of Long Island.
Meanwhile, a cold, 1038mb high will be focused over Quebec and
will be nosing south down across the interior of the Northeast and
the Mid-Atlantic with a rather classic cold air-damming event
expected to be in place as the low center moves up east of the
surface ridge and along the coast.

As strong warm-air advection/isentropic ascent occurs ahead of the
upstream trough along with increasingly moist Atlantic inflow over
the cold air, a large swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected
to develop for portions of the central Appalachians and the
adjacent Piedmont areas of WV/VA/MD and PA on Wednesday with the
focus west of the I-95 urban corridor, and generally west of
Washington D.C. and Baltimore and just north or over Philadelphia.
By Wednesday night and early Thursday the focus of heavy snow will
overspread areas of southeast NY and southern New England
including the New York City and Boston metropolitan areas. There
has been a bit of a northerly shift in 00Z model guidance earlier
on Wednesday before shifting east offshore as before. Still expect
a rather strong comma-head/deformation zone impacting especially
areas of central/eastern PA, southeast NY, northern NJ and
southeast New England on Thursday as the low center further
deepens and then begins to edge east-northeast and farther
offshore. Meanwhile, down across areas of northwest SC, western
NC, southwest VA, and southern and central WV, the cold air will
be much more shallow by comparison with freezing rain and locally
some sleet as the event ensues on Wednesday. The thermal profile
supports sleet spreading up near or just west of I-95 as well from
Washington D.C. to Philadelphia and toward NYC. But the threat of
ice north of Philadelphia is notably lower.

WPC QPF for this event is a multi-model blend weighting heavier
with the 00Z ECMWF, and lesser weighting to the 00Z NAM/GFS.
Overall this essentially shifts the heavy QPF focus farther west
over the northern Mid-Atlantic compared to the previous forecast.
Thermally, a blend of the 00Z ECMWF (which is rather warm now in
the central Mid-Atlantic), 00Z GFS, and 00Z 3kmNAM was preferred.
Based on this combination of moisture and thermals, the
possibility for maximum storm total snowfall in the 18 to 24 inch
range is from the eastern WV Panhandle, western MD and
south-central to east-central PA and closer to a foot for far
southeast NY and southern New England. Where freezing rain occurs,
the greatest ice accretions are expected over northwest NC up
through southwest to central VA and from southern into central WV
where Day 1.5 ice probabilities are 30 to 40 percent for a quarter
inch of ice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I buy the two part jack area. First may be W- NW CT into nrn MA and SNH..somewhere there. Another may be near stronger low level forcing in ern MA, interior SE MA. Just a guess...can detail it later.

I've been saying that.

Agree.

[JB_Wchstr]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

EPS is really good here 

Here too