Active mid December with multiple event potential

[JoeSnowBOS]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not sure how to take that Eric Fisher quote? 

I would take it as he knows what he is talking about.  The NAM does come south.  It’s struggling with precip field but that will change and cut back as Eric alludes to.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Rain said:

12km NAM is beautiful for the QPF Queens. I do think it's overdone with such a wide swath of that kind of liquid? Seems fairly progressive and not that classic ML lows closing off and pivoting right under us?

It's a little weird to imagine this intense almost horizontal band moving NE across the state.

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wish I could believe the NAM.    I wish I believed in Santa...  

Read the small print Scott Calvin 

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

3km NAM incoming

The 3k initially follows that convection to the east, but then lets it escape and relocates itself to the west.  Strange.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It's a little weird to imagine this intense almost horizontal band moving NE across the state.

I mean it's possible. Some hellacious fronto. 

[Spaizzo]

10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

still the NAM so I'm not locking anything in

I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? 
I mean it has to be right in some cases right

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Try it 12 hours later

I cant

[WinterWolf]

Just now, JoeSnowBOS said:

I would take it as he knows what he is talking about.  The NAM does come south.  It’s struggling with precip field but that will change and cut back as Eric alludes to.  

Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does.  And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote?  But whatever.  You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. 

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I cant

Try the 12K instead at hour 69 or 72.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I mean it's possible. Some hellacious fronto. 

Yeah, just not the typical cyclonic rotating band we are used to seeing. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The 3k initially follows that convection to the east, but then lets it escape and relocates itself to the west.  Strange.

I saw that too. One nice thing we have, are cold temps in the conveyor belt. It may not pound after the heavy heavies leave, but decent temps still for snow flake production despite losing deep lift in the DGZ.

[TalcottWx]

What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? 
I mean it has to be right in some cases right

for sure, it can be right, just folks here have seen it cave to other models up to 24hr before a storm, but has some friends like the RGEM.. so time will tell I guess.

[ice1972]

Oh they dropped the blizzy watch?  I loved the heavy snow warnings.....purple right? Lol

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? 
I mean it has to be right in some cases right

Verbatim, not really. It depends on how you know how to correct for its' bias. Meaning in terms of true snowfall and area coverage.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. 

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. 

I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 

[Bostonseminole]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does.  And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote?  But whatever.  You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. 

Joe is sort of a Grinch with this storm.

[TheSnowman]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. 

I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 

The Blizzard Watch was the Coolest Color - Neon Green!  

But Blizzard Warnings are of COURSE my Favorite feeling in life.  Being under that red.  

00z NAM = LFG    But it's the NAM.  

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. 

Found my answer. There are still blizzard warnings. Not watches. (Source) 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Oh they dropped the blizzy watch?  I loved the heavy snow warnings.....purple right? Lol

Lol yup purple for heavy snow.  Light green for Blizzard watch.  
 

I’d imagine they still have the blizzard warning though.

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Verbatim, not really. It depends on how you know how to correct for its' bias. Meaning in terms of true snowfall and area coverage.

yeah, some of the usual like cut 1/3 off QPF and usually more amped than other models, so it correcting south would be no shocker.

[Typhoon Tip]

This has always been precarious… I mean that’s a foregone conclusion and built in. I’m curious what Chris ( Occeanwx. ) thinks… He mentioned this 0 z cycle as crucially losing sensitivity issues related with being fully on board for the full cycles and shedding the old signals out

...remember we only need to flip a degree or two polarword and everybody gets cashed in. A goodly bit of the storms morphology has always had the look of dependency on I ts own in situ mechanics as described and discussed at length yesterday

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

Joe is sort of a Grinch with this storm.

Yes he is...he needed a little snarl. 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol yup purple for heavy snow.  Light green for Blizzard watch.  
 

I’d imagine they still have the blizzard warning though.

Blizzard warnings definitely still do exist and get used. Some were used this past January but in the Upper Midwest.

[TalcottWx]

Joe snow Boston is gonna be swimming in blow I mean snow come Thursday ❄️❄️❄️❄️ he needs to stop being a negative Nancy! 

[drstuess]

Looks prime for the Narragansett Bay snow hole.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. 

I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 

I remember there was one issued I believe with January 05 too. I’ve seen it a few times over the years..but it was rare.  I think in December ’10 Boxing Day they issued a blizzard watch..

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I remember there was one issued I believe with January 05 too. I’ve seen it a few times over the years..but it was rare.  I think in December ’10 Boxing Day they issued a blizzard watch..

January 2015 had one

[weathafella]

Ike expanding qpf 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Subtle shift south on the ICON, but expected since it’s been on the northern side of guidance.  Nice hit.