JoeSnowBOS Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:52 AM, WinterWolf said: I’m not sure how to take that Eric Fisher quote? Expand I would take it as he knows what he is talking about. The NAM does come south. It’s struggling with precip field but that will change and cut back as Eric alludes to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:58 AM, CT Rain said: 12km NAM is beautiful for the QPF Queens. I do think it's overdone with such a wide swath of that kind of liquid? Seems fairly progressive and not that classic ML lows closing off and pivoting right under us? Expand It's a little weird to imagine this intense almost horizontal band moving NE across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:49 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: I wish I could believe the NAM. I wish I believed in Santa... Expand Read the small print Scott Calvin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:48 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: 3km NAM incoming Expand The 3k initially follows that convection to the east, but then lets it escape and relocates itself to the west. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:58 AM, JC-CT said: It's a little weird to imagine this intense almost horizontal band moving NE across the state. Expand I mean it's possible. Some hellacious fronto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:49 AM, Bostonseminole said: still the NAM so I'm not locking anything in Expand I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? I mean it has to be right in some cases right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:00 AM, weathafella said: Try it 12 hours later Expand I cant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:58 AM, JoeSnowBOS said: I would take it as he knows what he is talking about. The NAM does come south. It’s struggling with precip field but that will change and cut back as Eric alludes to. Expand Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does. And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote? But whatever. You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:00 AM, MJO812 said: I cant Expand Try the 12K instead at hour 69 or 72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:00 AM, CT Rain said: I mean it's possible. Some hellacious fronto. Expand Yeah, just not the typical cyclonic rotating band we are used to seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:59 AM, 78Blizzard said: The 3k initially follows that convection to the east, but then lets it escape and relocates itself to the west. Strange. Expand I saw that too. One nice thing we have, are cold temps in the conveyor belt. It may not pound after the heavy heavies leave, but decent temps still for snow flake production despite losing deep lift in the DGZ. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:00 AM, Spaizzo said: I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? I mean it has to be right in some cases right Expand for sure, it can be right, just folks here have seen it cave to other models up to 24hr before a storm, but has some friends like the RGEM.. so time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Oh they dropped the blizzy watch? I loved the heavy snow warnings.....purple right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:00 AM, Spaizzo said: I’m not a met, but I think I remember he nam had Feb 8, 2013 dialed in close to the event and people said the same then? I mean it has to be right in some cases right Expand Verbatim, not really. It depends on how you know how to correct for its' bias. Meaning in terms of true snowfall and area coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:03 AM, DotRat_Wx said: What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. Expand Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:01 AM, WinterWolf said: Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does. And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote? But whatever. You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. Expand Joe is sort of a Grinch with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:05 AM, ORH_wxman said: Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. Expand The Blizzard Watch was the Coolest Color - Neon Green! But Blizzard Warnings are of COURSE my Favorite feeling in life. Being under that red. 00z NAM = LFG But it's the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:03 AM, DotRat_Wx said: What's the story with the discontinuation of blizzard watches/warnings? Just at OKX? NWS wide? I Googled quick and didn't find anything. Expand Found my answer. There are still blizzard warnings. Not watches. (Source) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:04 AM, ice1972 said: Oh they dropped the blizzy watch? I loved the heavy snow warnings.....purple right? Lol Expand Lol yup purple for heavy snow. Light green for Blizzard watch. I’d imagine they still have the blizzard warning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:04 AM, Greg said: Verbatim, not really. It depends on how you know how to correct for its' bias. Meaning in terms of true snowfall and area coverage. Expand yeah, some of the usual like cut 1/3 off QPF and usually more amped than other models, so it correcting south would be no shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 This has always been precarious… I mean that’s a foregone conclusion and built in. I’m curious what Chris ( Occeanwx. ) thinks… He mentioned this 0 z cycle as crucially losing sensitivity issues related with being fully on board for the full cycles and shedding the old signals out ...remember we only need to flip a degree or two polarword and everybody gets cashed in. A goodly bit of the storms morphology has always had the look of dependency on I ts own in situ mechanics as described and discussed at length yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:06 AM, Bostonseminole said: Joe is sort of a Grinch with this storm. Expand Yes he is...he needed a little snarl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:07 AM, WinterWolf said: Lol yup purple for heavy snow. Light green for Blizzard watch. I’d imagine they still have the blizzard warning though. Expand Blizzard warnings definitely still do exist and get used. Some were used this past January but in the Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Joe snow Boston is gonna be swimming in blow I mean snow come Thursday ❄️❄️❄️❄️ he needs to stop being a negative Nancy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:30 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks prime for the Narragansett Bay snow hole.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:05 AM, ORH_wxman said: Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm. Expand I remember there was one issued I believe with January 05 too. I’ve seen it a few times over the years..but it was rare. I think in December ’10 Boxing Day they issued a blizzard watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:11 AM, WinterWolf said: I remember there was one issued I believe with January 05 too. I’ve seen it a few times over the years..but it was rare. I think in December ’10 Boxing Day they issued a blizzard watch.. Expand January 2015 had one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ike expanding qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Subtle shift south on the ICON, but expected since it’s been on the northern side of guidance. Nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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