ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: 18z EPS is literally unchanged They look NW if anything 12z on top, 18z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: 18z EPS is literally unchanged Yeah just took a peek on Twitter at that. All systems go NH south . Op toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So is the EPS better than the Op generally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They look NW if anything 12z on top, 18z bottom I wasn't looking at qpf, it was maybe slightly cut back in some areas, splitting hairs. It was not the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They look NW if anything 12z on top, 18z bottom Shows perfectly the gradient set up in NH. That’s where the difficulty lies up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Too bad the skill isn't so hot ...because the NAVGEM at 18z trended boldly toward pan-dimensional CCB ... Capital district, to NYC to PVD to PWD to CON ...SE VT ... whole region... 8+ suggestion. And another thing that occurs to me.. .this is going to generate 25 mph gusts .. may 32 in the interior, and probably 40 at the hill tops, and coastal plain ...and if snows even an inch an hour in this profile we may have a blowing/exaggerate visibility issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah just took a peek on Twitter at that. All systems go NH south . Op toss It's not THAT different from the OP. Just means to me that we don't have certainty yet. At some point one of them will fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s possible. If it is, then the non-hydrostatic models should start showing this even more than regular global models ala euro. Still a bit out of their wheelhouse but the nonhydrostatics have been pretty far NW. The 18z RGEM wasn't lured by the convection to the E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Too bad the skill isn't so hot ...because the NAVGEM at 18z trended boldly toward pan-dimensional CCB ... Capital district, to NYC to PVD to PWD to CON ...SE VT ... whole region... 8+ suggestion. And another thing that occurs to me.. .this is going to generate 25 mph gusts .. may 32 in the interior, and probably 40 at the hill tops, and coastal plain ...and if snows even an inch an hour in this profile we may have a blowing/exaggerate visibility issue Luckily it will be happening overnight, feel for the people working 2nd/3rd shift though - I guess Boston could be rush hour hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just looking at storm track, most (exception GFS) is either at the BM or a hair south. Is there a point to obsessing over the specific morphology of the H5 low at this juncture? We're 3 days out. I'm not feeling ecstatic, but not exactly hyper anxious either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah just took a peek on Twitter at that. All systems go NH south . Op toss I wouldn't toss anything this close. Onto 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The areal averaged soundings on TT are a pretty nice tool. I note that the 3km nam and the gfs are pretty similar off the coast... around hr 54 the GFS really starts racing convection ENE off like VA beach.... If anything convective parameters for the nammy are a little better in that region (approaching 200 j/kg SBCAPE, mid 60s/low 60s, a ton of helicity) and yet it's not nearly as aggressive as the GFS in actually generating ^(organized) thunderstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This could wind up being one of the most tracked disappointments of the last couple of years. Who they hell started this thread so far out? They should be banned. Metfan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: My understanding of H5 vort maps isn't the best, but when I compared 12z at 72 hours to 18z at 66 hours, there seemed to be a clear south shift of the best forcing, and it seems to be due to a stronger high to the north. In case I am reading this wrong, what else should I look for to better understand the dynamics? But to what Will was saying, look at the curl on the 18z run vs flatter 12z. This is why at first I thought it might be better. Then I saw qpf and mslp and figured the difference was the convection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Luckily it will be happening overnight, feel for the people working 2nd/3rd shift though - I guess Boston could be rush hour hell This has slowed down a bit, hasn't it...I'm still stuck in past runs. This is more of a morning deal now for E Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Metfan Just the Tip..py. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Luckily it will be happening overnight, feel for the people working 2nd/3rd shift though - I guess Boston could be rush hour hell About 80% of the population is working from home in some capacity . It’s not the same as even a year ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: I have found when convection is involved, So is disappointment, Just ask Wiz, ha ha. Yeah when this weird shite starts happening it never ends well, especially us on the margin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: About 80% of the population is working from home in some capacity . It’s not the same as even a year ago I don't know if it is 80%, but it's a lot, that's true. My kids' school has already said that if there aren't power issues, they just have a remote day instead of a cancelled day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 EPS juicer than the op. So it looks like members aren’t all in with the blob. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: My understanding of H5 vort maps isn't the best, but when I compared 12z at 72 hours to 18z at 66 hours, there seemed to be a clear south shift of the best forcing, and it seems to be due to a stronger high to the north. In case I am reading this wrong, what else should I look for to better understand the dynamics? 18z is closer to closing off, which would drive everything north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I don't know if it is 80%, but it's a lot, that's true. My kids' school has already said that if there aren't power issues, they just have a remote day instead of a cancelled day. And even if some people have to go into the office they now are allowed and have the set up to WFH on snow days. Most corporate jobs now have that . And most corporate jobs, IT jobs etc etc are all WFH full time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So is the EPS better than the Op generally? The EPS is the ensemble run. It has many individual model runs that are slightly perturbed to adjust for all scenarios. So the eps mean is the average of all individual runs. Where as the euro is one single run. The mean provides more confidence and changes less run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And even if some people have to go into the office they now are allowed and have the set up to WFH on snow days. Most corporate jobs now have that . And most corporate jobs, IT jobs etc etc are all WFH full time Are 80% of jobs corporate jobs? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I don't know if it is 80%, but it's a lot, that's true. My kids' school has already said that if there aren't power issues, they just have a remote day instead of a cancelled day. 42% as of June 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: The EPS is the ensemble run. It has many individual model runs that are slightly perturbed to adjust for all scenarios. So the eps mean is the average of all individual runs. Where as the euro is one single run. The mean provides more confidence and changes less run to run. Further out yes but not as we get closer and closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: 21z SREFs Well that's pretty freaking tucked lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Probably too tucked even for me... lol Just now, JC-CT said: Well that's pretty freaking tucked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Probably too tucked even for me... lol well they wouldn't be the SREFs if they weren't. When you've lost those east, that's when you know you've REALLY lost it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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