JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:15 AM, CoastalWx said: I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. Expand The NAM at least used to be pretty good at not falling for those, and it does have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Here is the comparison of 12Z and 18Z Euro runs. 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:02 AM, 78Blizzard said: Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro. What is the point of having these other models then? Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS. Expand He didn't actually mention the models that he was using to create the two maps... maybe it was a blend? Maybe it was one specific one vs a blend? I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:15 AM, CoastalWx said: I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. Expand I will take my chances with this look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Fight , fight, fight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:11 AM, MJO812 said: Coastal CT does well Expand The Pope smirks.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That 18z Euro run may have had a convective feedback issue because @H5 it looked like it was going to be better then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:11 AM, MJO812 said: Coastal CT does well Expand What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:16 AM, wxeyeNH said: Here is the comparison of 12Z and 18Z Euro runs. 10:1 ratio Expand I’m headed to either Hershey or like Jim Thorpe. Gonna get mauled over there hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:17 AM, moneypitmike said: The Pope smirks.... Expand He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:19 AM, qg_omega said: What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King Expand It’s one run and a qpf tick Upper air features are fine. Idk man it could be worst you could be in Philly with hours and hours of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yikes, may need to back off on 6-10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 looks like the high presses a bit more than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 When the EPS brings snows to Maine’s, he’ll be forced to err his transgressions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:19 AM, JC-CT said: He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it. Expand The run smacks of seeing something gfs always did. And it’s so damn creepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:13 AM, dryslot said: That exited stage right towards the convection to the east after it looked like it was going to be a better run. Expand Same as GFS and gefs On 12/15/2020 at 12:19 AM, qg_omega said: What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King Expand Not yet but the Nam has also been going east. Feeling the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:17 AM, moneypitmike said: The Pope smirks.... Expand Or he called in a favor with the Big Man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: I will take my chances with this look Expand Yeah I see that too, But I do think that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It’s almost as if the tuckier it gets the earlier it craps its load...so then the occulded pos gets kicked east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I believe this is Wxwatcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:19 AM, JC-CT said: He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it. Expand If he's right and he's certain---well.... On 12/15/2020 at 12:22 AM, Hoth said: Or he called in a favor with the Big Man. Expand He knows Joe Biden? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:23 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I see that too, But I do think that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it. Expand Can you share your totals you have out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:25 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Can you share your totals you have out? Expand Preliminary thinking 8-12 here for BOS. I don't really have CT totals, but probably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:21 AM, IowaStorm05 said: The run smacks of seeing something gfs always did. And it’s so damn creepy Expand I guess...this evolution of gaining latitude to a point and then just splitting east has been the theme for a while. It's about how much latitude it gains. That run did it what, 40-50 miles south of 12z? I think that's still easily within the spread of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:23 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s almost as if the tuckier it gets the earlier it craps its load...so then the occulded pos gets kicked east. Expand yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Man Hi res slams south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If EPS remains similar to 12z, then we'll know the op was voodoo.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:23 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I see that too, But I do think that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it. Expand If it’s legit then we should see the non-hydrostatic models start doing it even more than the hydrostatics as we get closer. So those will be the ones to watch. Deep convection like that will be handled worse by the hydrostatic models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 IF the only model who misses the region ends up right you have to tip your cap and call it my daddy. Pedro is on standby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:26 AM, CoastalWx said: Man Hi res slams south coast. Expand Go ooonnn.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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