Active mid December with multiple event potential

[JC-CT]

1" QPF line running almost due E-W through approx Keene/Manchester

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just because the goal posts are narrowing, has no implications that the GFS is right!  In fact, the GFS is bound to come back to reality.  A consensus towards a CMC-EURO-UKMET combination seems most reasonable.  18z NAM does not rain at all for me, and I am west of CHH, I am more Mid-Cape then outer Cape!

[PWMan]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

the cutoff for the goods is right around the MA north border

Yep, this one's slipping away from NNE as the modeling converges and the clock runs down. May be a complete whiff here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

QPF queens approved. 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wow, still snowing into afternoon

Friday? I was promised Friday.

[RDRY]

Precip hangs on several hours longer on the 12k compared to 6z -- almost looks like a norlun trough.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wow, still snowing into afternoon

You can tell with the mid level look this would hang back unlike previous runs where it was just a qpf blob racing east. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Goalposts seem to be narrowing. Looks like it's going to be wide right for me.

The writing has been on the wall for a couple days, Plenty of winter left to come.

[dendrite]

Just now, PWMan said:

Yep, this one's slipping away from NNE as the modeling converges and the clock runs down. May be a complete whiff here.

There was really nothing to ever lose. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

He’s even west of CQX

Date: 63 hour NAM valid 9Z THU 17 DEC 20
Station: KCQX
Latitude:   41.69
Longitude: -69.99
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1010    -0   1.7   1.5  98  0.2   1.7  53  32 274.1 274.8 274.3 285.5  4.22
  1 1000    78   0.2  -0.1  98  0.3   0.1  53  38 273.4 274.0 273.2 283.7  3.80
  2  950   487  -3.0  -3.5  96  0.5  -3.2  57  53 274.1 274.6 272.6 282.6  3.10
  3  900   913  -5.6  -6.6  93  1.0  -6.0  67  47 275.7 276.1 272.8 282.9  2.58
  4  850  1362  -3.6  -4.3  95  0.7  -3.8  75  34 282.4 283.0 277.5 291.7  3.27
  5  800  1844  -1.8  -2.2  97  0.4  -2.0  89  25 289.2 290.0 281.7 301.0  4.06
  6  750  2354  -5.5  -6.2  95  0.7  -5.8 118  41 290.6 291.2 281.3 300.0  3.21
  7  700  2894  -6.0  -6.6  95  0.7  -6.2 144  66 295.9 296.5 283.7 305.8  3.32
  8  650  3477  -4.7  -5.1  97  0.4  -4.9 169  84 303.6 304.4 287.4 316.0  4.02
  9  600  4106  -6.7  -7.0  98  0.3  -6.8 188  91 308.4 309.1 288.8 320.2  3.78
 10  550  4779 -11.5 -12.1  95  0.6 -11.7 206  79 310.4 311.0 288.5 319.2  2.74
 11  500  5503 -16.2 -17.0  93  0.8 -16.4 216  69 313.3 313.7 288.7 320.0  2.02 

 

Thanks, this is a learning opportunity for me - so 35F at the surface and above freezing through 1000 isn't going to be a problem?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Obvious caveats apply.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The gradient is getting more extreme as the models keen in on the track of the SFC-H7 lows and their intensities as well as the final location and track of the Deformation band, which lies 100 miles north of the H7 low track or from the low to the north by 100 miles.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wow, still snowing into afternoon

Has light snow lingering into the evening for us.... that was a hellacious run... 15-20”

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, kdxken said:

Friday? I was promised Friday.

Ain't happenin' Rev.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I have not seen the Queens Gambit but it has gotten rave reviews. The show has sparked a resurgence in chess. Likely the largest resurgence since the days of Fisher.  Check out Chess.com

I may swing by there in a moment of curiosity .. but, the appeal of the game has become passe'  
 

I was dormitory champ in college ... as I had a life - clearly ... But that was like a Japanese fighting fish in the tank full of guppies... I wasn't "that" good, not really. My precog was maybe 5 or 7 moves on a good day, which was enough for that setting.  I did okay online at speed chess .. but I think I capped my skill and wasn't exactly polymathic with the board and to really be a name in that world you gotta be one of those cats that walks up and down a panel of active games taking turns kicking assess of throngs of people simultaneously ... I never lost to "fool's mate" but never bothered to learn many openings..I just always did well with king or queen's pawn then night to bishop two ...and wait for the aggression of the other side to expose and oops and commence chopping them apart. 

[PWMan]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The writing has been on the wall for a couple days, Plenty of winter left to come.

Yeah, was just hoping for something before Christmas. I'd rather have my snow in December than March (just personal preference).

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Thanks, this is a learning opportunity for me - so 35F at the surface and above freezing through 1000 isn't going to be a problem?

I am not Chatham

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's a SNE approved model run.  C/NNE sorry.

when can we start talking about the grinch storm?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can tell with the mid level look this would hang back unlike previous runs where it was just a qpf blob racing east. 

A stretched out upper level trough is actually pretty classic for a norlun sig...so I could def see some steady light to occasionally moderate snows rotting for several hours after the main CCB has moved out. 

No Kevin, they won’t go until Friday. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wow, still snowing into afternoon

The memo from Tolland read; days n days 

[PWMan]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There was really nothing to ever lose. 

There were a few runs that showed a decent event well into CNE/NNE, and the NAM had been a bright spot over the past 24 hours. Anyway, it is what it is. Congrats SNE if that's how it plays out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

when can we start talking about the grinch storm?

Once the afterglow burns off.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Thanks, this is a learning opportunity for me - so 35F at the surface and above freezing through 1000 isn't going to be a problem?

That 10mb is like 250ft and it’s pounding rates. Again he’s west of CQX too.

[PowderBeard]

NAM at 63hrs would be my projected snowfall forecast at this point. 

[dryslot]

Just now, PWMan said:

Yeah, was just hoping for something before Christmas. I'd rather have my snow in December than March (just personal preference).

I'd rather take my chances tainting then having blocking, Its not an absolute necessity for us to get snow but a strong high along with a strong 50/50 is usually a death sentence depending on where it sets up.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Thanks, this is a learning opportunity for me - so 35F at the surface and above freezing through 1000 isn't going to be a problem?

I guess from the surface to 1000mb isn't very thick at that particular moment, eh

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That 10mb is like 250ft and it’s pounding rates. Again he’s west of CQX too.

Lol thank you, I literally just figured out my mistake. But I think he's like 5 miles west.

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There was really nothing to ever lose. 

Hope 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That NAM run is probably the best run for the 3 SNE states by any model thus far. Just about everyone sees a foot or more.

[TheSnowman]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

QPF queens approved. 

Cory and CN Mountain Jackpot!