The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: What time does the v16 goofus usually come out for 00z? I’m eager to watch it cave. i know ive been checking periodically, looks like its gonna come out thursday morning at this point. Cave to what? The op GFS? Not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That UKIE run even crushes down my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the Ukie amounts aren't happening. Not with a dampening s/w and occluded low. Did you see the mid levels? If it delays the dampening of the SW, then it makes sense. Probably wrong, but not nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Good explanation of setup 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: they tossed the NAM, 2-6" up here yikes. I appreciate chance for change in that write-up along with the "here is current interpretation" piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Labeling a run as BS without looking at what it is doing is silly. The GFS and UK both make sense due to respective handling of the SW evolution, but are both likely wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the Ukie amounts aren't happening. Not with a dampening s/w and occluded low. FIRST CALL 8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. C-2” MV and ACK. Cirrus for NNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: No I touched the ban button. hard flex. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did you see the mid levels? If it delays the dampening of the SW, then it makes sense. Probably wrong, but not nonsense. I did. I just don't like how it flattens out as it moves overhead. It may not mean much as the low is already matured and won't really weaken...but I don't see how it produces that much QPF in a larger area. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: FIRST CALL 8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. C-2” MV and ACK. Cirrus for NNE. I agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: FIRST CALL 8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. C-2” MV and ACK. Cirrus for NNE. Reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Likely a pivotal EC run coming up, what with the new data on the s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, Fozz said: Wow there’s a Fozz jackpot right there.... can we please lock this up?? We’d take this in a heartbeat but I think it’s overdone but it’s going to snow in mid December!! What’s not to like ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Likely a pivotal EC run coming up, what with the new data on the s/w My guess is it won't change much....people always a pick a cycle as this "come to jesus suite" during which all guidance undergoes an epiphany, but it seems pretty locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Pluffmud said: We’d take this in a heartbeat but I think it’s overdone but it’s going to snow in mid December!! What’s not to like ! Honestly I’d be thrilled with half of that total, and I think that’s well within our reach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Labeling a run as BS without looking at what it is doing is silly. The GFS and UK both make sense due to respective handling of the SW evolution, but are both likely wrong. Correct. Did you read what I said prior to posting the images. If timing is slowed, I see no reason it's not a viable solution. GFS on the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right which is why I laugh. We had no school for 2 days/unheard of back then. NYC schools closed for the first time since the 26 inches of 12/26/47 December 12, 1960 'Twas the night before deer season, with snow in the woods, Still snowing at sunrise as we went for the goods. My dad and best friend and I headed out that day, with a foot and a half powder to impede our way. My friend and I slogged thru the hills in the snow, While my dad leaned upon a nice oak down below. My friend and I saw tracks, but not a thing more, While my dad saw the buck and one shot made the score. My friend and I walked back to admire the deer, And I got to field dress it, as dad made it clear. I wondered why he couldn't do it, not me, When I finally shot one (8 yr later, in PA), his training I could see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I did. I just don't like how it flattens out as it moves overhead. It may not mean much as the low is already matured and won't really weaken...but I don't see how it produces that much QPF in a larger area. JMHO. Probably not, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: FIRST CALL 8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. C-2” MV and ACK. Cirrus for NNE. Not bad at all at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: i know ive been checking periodically, looks like its gonna come out thursday morning at this point. Cave to what? The op GFS? Not likely. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct. Did you read what I said prior to posting the images. If timing is slowed, I see no reason it's not a viable solution. GFS on the other. Yea, if we alter the timescale as far as how the SW interacts with the block, then new ballgame. I was more hopeful for this through the weekend, but getting late now. We need to see the EURO do that in the next 30 minutes to realistically consider it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 All this lead up, I remember my intro to these forums for the January 2015 blizzard, if I remember correctly there was not much on models until 2/3 days before. So much time and changes to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My guess is it won't change much....people always a pick a cycle as this "come to jesus suite" during which all guidance undergoes an epiphany, but it seems pretty locked in. That makes sense. If the EC spits out a solution more like the UKMET, I'd be pretty excited however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CIPS analogs still have this coming NW. Not sure how meaningful that is at this juncture Edit: better photo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 35 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Tracking is so exhausting LOL I fully admit that I am a weather weenie at 49 years old. I've Loved tracking the weather my entire life. Even had a stint in college for meteorology, ending up in Design ( which I love ). With that said, even if we see 6 to 12 in I'll be super happy. Plus, we still have January February March and even April.. At least it's not the last few years for here in Southern New England Mm. Ya know ... people who engage in this distraction are really after the cinema the weather charts offer; and there is a story and thematic arc there, just like any story that gets told… And it takes a good deal of one’s imagination hence “design“ to turn those pages. In a sense I think most of the people that are hobbyists and Meteorologists .. are all like designers – or at least carry that trait in common… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if we alter the timescale as far as how the SW interacts with the block, then new ballgame. I was more hopeful for this through the weekend, but getting late now. We need to see the EURO do that in the next 30 minutes to realistically consider it. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: CIPS analogs still have this coming NW. Not sure how meaningful that is at this juncture Edit: better photo Still fine from my POV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: CIPS analogs still have this coming NW. Not sure how meaningful that is at this juncture Edit: better photo What the hell happened to Michigan? 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: What the hell happened to Michigan? Snowed under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Still waiting for the Euro to pull the rug out and go all GFS on us....out to 54, looks similar to 6z, a bit stronger push from the high pressure though, maybe a tad weaker system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Model dejur? Every event is like a snowflake, which model is less wrong? In the end, toward the end all comes down to nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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