Active mid December with multiple event potential

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Big hit cmc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

JESUS, what a gradient near me.

[Sn0waddict]

CMC looks pretty much the same as 0z, maybe tucked just a slight bit more but same trajectory besides that.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

CMC is a whopper wow. I’ll lock that 12-18” here 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

thanks, looks like pivotal had it pretty quickly.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Looks moderate 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is pretty good. Similar to 00z. 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

ya

Thanks bro

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is pretty good. Similar to 00z. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Looks moderate 

Looks pretty pedestrian to me, moderates pushing it 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is pretty good. Similar to 00z. 

It keeps cutting back on the north side with every run

[The Graupler]

This is tough if it were to verify.  I think some people would be happy and others might have a more negative outlook 

[Bostonseminole]

so far only the GFS sucked..  I might go 80/20 blend.. I still worry that at 0Z things start to shift south..

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It keeps cutting back on the north side with every run

Make sure you aren't accounting for the snow today. Should do like 24 hr snowfall, not cumulative total.

[Greg]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JESUS, what a gradient near me.

That's why even I don't buy it verbatim. Too sharp of a cutoff north and looking solution. Honestly I don't see Lowell, MA getting 16" of fluffy snow here. Maybe 10-11" but in my forecast that's max for that area even with potential fluff factor involved.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JESUS, what a gradient near me.

Route 2 north has been consistently the gradient line for this one.

[Heisy]

OT but the LR Christmas gfs setup looks almost identical to today’s H5. Pretty crazy. Check out day 8-9. Shortwave diving down which could form 50:50 with nice energy dropping out of NW

[PowderBeard]

BOX 

System passing through region today will intensity rapidly over
Maritimes over next few days. This becomes critical to the track
of the winter storm since it affects flow downstream from us,
mainly by helping strengthen confluent flow aloft which in turn
prevents ridging from helping to slow down and maintain
strength of upper trough. This should result in opening up of
500 mb low, which is shown by just about all models with
exception of 00z NAM which is an outlier and does not fit this
expectation.

Upstream, we also do not see much upper level ridging across
northern Rockies which would be needed to help deepen trough
over eastern states. This also allows system to open up as it
passes our region instead of closing off or maintaining its
strength.

What all this means is there is less of a chance that coastal
low comes much closer to coast than 40/70 and it won`t have a
chance to deepen rapidly as it passes our area, thus limiting
impacts such as widespread heavy snow and strong winds. In
addition, models show strongest 850 wind field and moisture
convergence across NJ and Long Island before both weaken with
time as they reach SNE.

All of these factors argue against a "blockbuster storm" for the
entire region but there are other considerations that certainly
favor heavy snow including presence of deep southern stream
moisture and a cold airmass in place which should yield high
snow to water ratios (fluffy snow). There is likely to be a
tight snowfall gradient somewhere in northern MA (thinking Route
2 right now) but this could shift north or even south in future
model runs. It does look like best chance for seeing 6-12" of
snow is along and south of the Mass Pike with 2-6" north of
there, but again, this may shift in later forecasts. Then
there`s the issue of low level temperatures which may cause
p-type issues or prevent accumulations on the outer Cape and
Nantucket.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The Canadian is just trying to be polite...

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

BOX 

System passing through region today will intensity rapidly over
Maritimes over next few days. This becomes critical to the track
of the winter storm since it affects flow downstream from us,
mainly by helping strengthen confluent flow aloft which in turn
prevents ridging from helping to slow down and maintain
strength of upper trough. This should result in opening up of
500 mb low, which is shown by just about all models with
exception of 00z NAM which is an outlier and does not fit this
expectation.

Upstream, we also do not see much upper level ridging across
northern Rockies which would be needed to help deepen trough
over eastern states. This also allows system to open up as it
passes our region instead of closing off or maintaining its
strength.

What all this means is there is less of a chance that coastal
low comes much closer to coast than 40/70 and it won`t have a
chance to deepen rapidly as it passes our area, thus limiting
impacts such as widespread heavy snow and strong winds. In
addition, models show strongest 850 wind field and moisture
convergence across NJ and Long Island before both weaken with
time as they reach SNE.

All of these factors argue against a "blockbuster storm" for the
entire region but there are other considerations that certainly
favor heavy snow including presence of deep southern stream
moisture and a cold airmass in place which should yield high
snow to water ratios (fluffy snow). There is likely to be a
tight snowfall gradient somewhere in northern MA (thinking Route
2 right now) but this could shift north or even south in future
model runs. It does look like best chance for seeing 6-12" of
snow is along and south of the Mass Pike with 2-6" north of
there, but again, this may shift in later forecasts. Then
there`s the issue of low level temperatures which may cause
p-type issues or prevent accumulations on the outer Cape and
Nantucket.

they tossed the NAM, 2-6" up here yikes.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

BOX 

System passing through region today will intensity rapidly over
Maritimes over next few days. This becomes critical to the track
of the winter storm since it affects flow downstream from us,
mainly by helping strengthen confluent flow aloft which in turn
prevents ridging from helping to slow down and maintain
strength of upper trough. This should result in opening up of
500 mb low, which is shown by just about all models with
exception of 00z NAM which is an outlier and does not fit this
expectation.

Upstream, we also do not see much upper level ridging across
northern Rockies which would be needed to help deepen trough
over eastern states. This also allows system to open up as it
passes our region instead of closing off or maintaining its
strength.

What all this means is there is less of a chance that coastal
low comes much closer to coast than 40/70 and it won`t have a
chance to deepen rapidly as it passes our area, thus limiting
impacts such as widespread heavy snow and strong winds. In
addition, models show strongest 850 wind field and moisture
convergence across NJ and Long Island before both weaken with
time as they reach SNE.

All of these factors argue against a "blockbuster storm" for the
entire region but there are other considerations that certainly
favor heavy snow including presence of deep southern stream
moisture and a cold airmass in place which should yield high
snow to water ratios (fluffy snow). There is likely to be a
tight snowfall gradient somewhere in northern MA (thinking Route
2 right now) but this could shift north or even south in future
model runs. It does look like best chance for seeing 6-12" of
snow is along and south of the Mass Pike with 2-6" north of
there, but again, this may shift in later forecasts. Then
there`s the issue of low level temperatures which may cause
p-type issues or prevent accumulations on the outer Cape and
Nantucket.

Good explanation of setup

[HoarfrostHubb]

Today's flurries mucking it up

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The Canadian is just trying to be polite...

Very nice people, even nicer models.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Today's flurries mucking it up

Sort of like one of the Red Sox openers in 2020 allowing 6 runs in 2 innings.......

[PhineasC]

Well, they are melting down in the MA forum, so I assume that means you guys are partying up here?

[CoastalWx]

Nah nothing really to do with today. 

[TalcottWx]

Had a nice drunk eggnog snooze, catching up. 

Read last few pages. Eps still rock solid consistent as it has been for days. 

Not much has changed overnight in my opinion. 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big hit cmc.

We seem to be in the goods each run...we take and are happy. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Had a nice drunk eggnog snooze, catching up. 

Read last few pages. Eps still rock solid consistent as it has been for days. 

Not much has changed overnight in my opinion. 

whats good (liquor) to put in eggnog for a drink?

[Logan11]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM is problematic for se MA

 

Somehow I don't think I'm not getting that 20.1"  that the NAM shows.  Maybe shift the decimal one to the left.