NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: everything looks good for folks south of the NH/MA border, no question that S.Pike crew will do well, 12"+ is a lock The question is north, currently feel 8-10" for this area, with the due east movement and maybe some dry air to overcome at the onset that sounds reasonable. Hopefully we get a couple of bumps north next 36hrs. I’m starting to think the heaviest axis will run along the Pike now. MA/NH border and SEMA still get crushed, just not JP. Blue Hill probably the winner in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Logan11 said: Have we ever seen the NAM and GFS this far apart ? LOL I think the MRF and ETA would be doing a better job in 1998. Yeah, lol, Both on different ends of the spectrum Rick, Its nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Considering our storm today was more amplified than the models showed 24 hours out, I would lean towards the UKMET, EURO, CMC and ensembles then the GFS and NAM! Really because it trended a lot weaker and further south than a few days ago. The Euro was the first to amp up today's storm but now it looks closer to the Gfs. I don't think people should be quick to dismiss the Gfs in the presence of a strong, cold high not too far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I will gladly sacrifice my snow for taint so that that Dryslot and MWebstah can get some..said no one ever 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The amped/warmer trend looks to have begun. I’d be concerned for the best banding to lift north off the south coast and into northern sne and cne and curl back to the se into the snow mecca. nam, uk, eps hints at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: everything looks good for folks south of the NH/MA border, no question that S.Pike crew will do well, 12"+ is a lock The question is north, currently feel 8-10" for this area, with the due east movement and maybe some dry air to overcome at the onset that sounds reasonable. Hopefully we get a couple of bumps north next 36hrs. I think the issue with this storm is certainly going to be that the accumulations on the Northern edge are tenuous with bumps south. Tight gradient on the warning level snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking 5-8" in my hood, 6-9" a bit to my east... I have you 12-16”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: I’m starting to think the heaviest axis will run along the Pike now. MA/NH border and SEMA still get crushed, just not JP. Blue Hill probably the winner in the end. I'm OK not to JP for this storm at least lol, it's been a long time since we see a nice storm, looking forward to it and happy for those that get clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6Z EPS Maps: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Have we ever seen the NAM and GFS this far apart ? LOL I think the MRF and ETA would be doing a better job in 1998. Look who’s in the house! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think the issue with this storm is certainly going to be that the accumulations on the Northern edge are tenuous with bumps south. Tight gradient on the warning level snows yeah I can envision allot of folks screaming at radarscope when they can't get that shield just a few miles north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking 5-8" in my hood, 6-9" a bit to my east... The more OTS solutions (GFS hanging on) look like classic W to E sheer drop offs in accums. Shades of Jan. 1996. But others are now showing more poleward trajectory at least with longitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have you 12-16”. I think Dave takes the consensus forecast and does a 30% trim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have you 12-16”. Riding the Ukie? lol I'm still waiting on northward shifts... so far... not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The amped/warmer trend looks to have begun. I’d be concerned for the best banding to lift north off the south coast and into northern sne and cne and curl back to the se into the snow mecca. nam, uk, eps hints at it. Stop stealing my snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Thanks 4 seasons. Quite a few members west of the mean at hr 84 there. Maybe why it looked a little slower to leave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Riding the Ukie? lol I'm still waiting on northward shifts... so far... not much There coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: I think Dave takes the consensus forecast and does a 30% trim For the Dec 5 stowm everyone was saying I was locked for a foot+... I was thinking 9-11", got 8.5" This one will be fluffier though, so that may help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Thanks 4 seasons. Quite a few members west of the mean at hr 84 there. Maybe why it looked a little slower to leave. Took like 10 minutes to make that post lol. It's a workout resizing everything to fit right, i usually dont post full images because it becomes a monster post, then when people quote it... FYI for anyone who didnt see, we got a thread for todays event, check it out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Riding the Ukie? lol I'm still waiting on northward shifts... so far... not much We’re still 3 days out so just a first guess but uk/nammy hint at it...and some eps members do as well. gfs is tossed as far as one can toss a skinny old brittled pope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Should be mostly dry snow except maybe SE cstl areas for a time. Even here it may get near 32 and a little wet before dropping later in the storm. 128 on N and W probably teens for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re still 3 days out so just a first guess but uk/nammy hint at it...and some eps members do as well. gfs is tossed as far as one can toss a skinny old brittled pope. Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The EPS goal posts have narrowed to where us southern New Hampshire posters are out of a shading for >12". To that I say: GO NAM/UKIE GO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. When the gfs is alone you let it sit in the dark corner by itself and pay it not attention. The party is in the other room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe. I think folks are putting less weight on it.. when all other guidance shows a different scenario, you need to consider if it's out to lunch .. I mean it could be right .. 12z should start to answer that question imo. I'm worried for my area because of the GFS, so I'm definitely not discounting it 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking 5-8" in my hood My thoughts here as well. Takes a lot to get a widespread 8-10"+ deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: It was better and a couple tics north for those on the northern edge, Here's 00z and 06z 00z 06z Ted Weaker for most in SNE On 6z has looked best for E PA for about 10 runs when it tucks it deposits its load NW in Deform dandy it tucks off S NJ we seen this movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ted Weaker for most in SNE On 6z Meh could be noise, could be ridding of the extreme wrn outliers too. I mean an area near the Quabbin could have been 10.5" on the 00z run and get into the light purple shading and now is 9.7" on the 6z run and stay in the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: everything looks good for folks south of the NH/MA border, no question that S.Pike crew will do well, 12"+ is a lock The question is north, currently feel 8-10" for this area, with the due east movement and maybe some dry air to overcome at the onset that sounds reasonable. Hopefully we get a couple of bumps north next 36hrs. I think I had you near the s end of the 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: I think folks are putting less weight on it.. when all other guidance shows a different scenario, you need to consider if it's out to lunch .. I mean it could be right .. 12z should start to answer that question imo. I'm worried for my area because of the GFS, so I'm definitely not discounting it 100% It just seems odd to me that this storm could be so amped up against a pretty strong nearby high. The low isn't that strong either. Honestly I'd be shocked if the overly amped models didn't start trending south 24-36 hours before the storm hits. I think a Euro/Gfs compromise works best right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now